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智通港股解盘 | 完善制度做空受遏制 LPR下调威力显现

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Improving the System, Shorting Is Constrained, LPR Downsizing Shows Strength

Zhitong Finance ·  Feb 21 07:55

Today, Hong Kong stocks finally broke through, rising 1.57%, and their trading volume increased to 122.4 billion dollars, indicating that an increase is entering the market.

[Anatomy Board]

Today, Hong Kong stocks finally broke through, rising 1.57%, and the trading volume expanded to 122.4 billion dollars, indicating that there is an increase in the market, which is in line with yesterday's judgment: “With interest rate cuts and the support of the regulatory authorities strongly supporting the capital market, the current market atmosphere is strong, and capital is entering the market one after another.”

Market confidence comes from many sources. Among them, the Securities Regulatory Commission has taken strong measures to stimulate quantitative shorting. There have been many negative rumors about quantification these days. There are rumors that “hundreds of billions of quantitative products were liquidated, proprietary trading had huge losses of 1.5 billion dollars, DMA arrears of 6 billion dollars, and the company went bankrupt.” The main subject of the rumor involved a number of leading quantitative private equity institutions.

There is also a crackdown on irregularities. On February 19, various products managed by Ningbo Lingjun Investment Management Partnership sold a total of 2,567 billion yuan of shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets within one minute of opening. The exchange took decisive measures against this: suspending Lingjun account trading for three days and initiating a public reprimand record procedure. The penalized agency Ling Jun apologized late at night, and the Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized that “one item will be matured and introduced in the future” of quantitative supervision. It is estimated that quantification will revise the strategy in the future, and the act of concentrating on large shorting is not expected to happen again.

Also, according to news from the Supreme People's Procuratorate today, the Supreme Prosecution released typical cases where procuratorial authorities carried out their duties with high quality and efficiency, including the case of illegal disclosure of important information by Zhangzidao Group Co., Ltd. All kinds of fraud will receive high scrutiny in the future; this is very deterrent.

Attitudes towards foreign investors are also changing positively. Recently, US Jinrui Fund (KraneShares) launched two new Chinese ETFs on the NYSE: KPRO and KPUF, respectively. Following the launch of a new Chinese ETF by overseas Chinese investment expert Mingji Asia in January 2024 to actively manage Chinese ETFs, global asset management agencies are also promoting tools to lay out the Chinese market. Its chief operating officer Jonathan Shelon said, “The valuation gap between the Chinese and US markets has reached the largest scale in history, and we think now is the time to invest in China.

There is nothing wrong with this statement, because the price-earnings ratio of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is only about 12 times, while the price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index is as high as 24 times. KWEB is the largest Chinese ETF listed in the US. Its latest scale is approximately US$5.26 billion. Up to now, the top four Chinese ETFs listed in the US are KWEB, MCHI, FXI, and ASHR. Among them, KWEB tracks the China Internet Index, MCHI tracks the MSCI China Index, FXI tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, and ASHR tracks the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. Since 2024, KWEB has attracted a net capital inflow of US$262 million. As long as the stock market improves, there will only be more and more capital to participate in the Chinese market.

The effect of reducing LPR by 25 BP began to ferment, and new incentives appeared for real estate that benefited the most. On February 21, the signing ceremony for the Chongqing Rental Housing Loan Support Program pilot and the first batch of housing rental fund acquisition projects was held. The Chongqing Jiayu Housing Rental Company and the Chongqing Jianyu Housing Rental Fund, which signed the contract this time, have acquired a total of 7 projects, totaling 4,207 units. After entering the market, they will effectively meet the multi-level housing rental needs of the vast majority of new citizens and young people. This move is somewhat interesting. It means that state-owned enterprises spend money to absorb stocks and then recycle them through leasing. It is a good way for housing enterprises to reduce pressure. Longhu Group (00960) long-term rental apartments and related businesses in Chongqing are up 9.49% today.

In addition, the Tianjin Provident Fund loan policy is to be adjusted, and the down payment ratio for the first home will be reduced to 20%. Policies continue to improve, and investors have seen management's determination. As a result, sentiment has improved today. Among them, the property sector showed stronger performance, such as CNOOC Property (02669) and Poly Real Estate (06049), which increased by more than 6 points. Vanke (02202) and China Resources Land (01109) mentioned yesterday have finally moved, both increasing by 4 points.

Real estate is closely related to banks. Real estate has been revitalized, and banks are doing relatively well, for example, the improvement of the mortgage business. What is more intense is that Hang Seng Bank (00011) surged more than 9 points, while others, China Merchants Bank (03968), rose more than 5 points.

Yesterday, I mentioned stock market standard-bearer securities. Today's performance is quite good. For example, CICC (03908) rose 3 points. However, overall, it did not outperform other finance, especially insurance. Ping An of China (02318) and Taiping of China (00966) both increased by nearly 6 points. The reason why securities did not outperform is that the market's judgment on the market has not risen to the point of a big bull market, and with the overall interest rate decline, insurance benefits a lot, and at the same time, it is bound to increase the share of equity investment, thereby raising its valuation level.

The main contract for lithium carbonate futures hit a rise or fall in early trading, reporting 103,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.98%. According to reports, this month, Australia's main lithium supplier Core Lithium announced the suspension of the BP33 project, suspended open pit mining, and the Greenbush lithium mine lowered its 2024 lithium concentrate production plan. In addition, the Greenbush Changxie contract pricing model for the world's largest lithium mine has changed, and concentrate pricing has changed from Q-1 to an M-1 pricing mechanism. Related individual stocks Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) all rose by 4 points. Meanwhile, China Alcoa International (02068) also has a lithium battery concept, superimposing the latest rumor: on January 29, I learned from the central enterprise and local State-owned Assets Administration Commission assessment and allocation work meeting held by the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission of the State Council of China that the market value management assessment of listed companies will be fully implemented in 2024. As a result, it exploded today, surging 36.77%.

In the midst of constant questioning, the stock market continues to move upward, and it is only when it comes out of differences that it is more resilient. The improvement in mood has already been projected onto the consumer side, such as Zhenjiu Li Du (06979), Helen's (09869), and Nai Xue's tea (02150), etc., and the market continues to explore varieties that have surpassed the bottom. At this stage, favorable catalysis needs to be further strengthened.

[Sector Focus]

According to local media sources in Hong Kong, the central government has responded positively to the requests of the HKSAR Government, including measures such as expanding free travel to increase the number of visitors to Hong Kong, which are expected to be announced soon.

The first batch of free travel cities were basically first-tier cities in the mainland, but the Hong Kong government wants to relax the free administration policy in recent years. Hong Kong's free travel policy is actually an “individual travel endorsement”. With this endorsement, you can freely enter and leave Hong Kong without a group, and you can fly directly to Hong Kong from anywhere in the mainland, which can only be processed in some provinces and cities. Residents of second-tier and third-tier cities in the mainland can also travel to Hong Kong freely.

To be honest, Hong Kong's economy is not good right now; free travel should have been liberalized long ago. Although Hong Kong is currently not that attractive, for the vast mainland, this increase is still quite impressive.

The main benefits of free travel are restaurants, hotels and shopping. The main categories are: Family Music Group (00341), Shangri-La (Asia) (00069), and Salsa International (00178).

[Individual Stock Nuggets]

Lenovo Group (00992): AI PC shipments have increased dramatically, and AI transformation has been fully accelerated

MWC2024, one of the world's most important technology fairs, will be held from February 26th to 29th in Barcelona, Spain. Lenovo will present a new AI PC at MWC. According to IDC's latest forecast, AI PC shipments are expected to reach nearly 50 million units in 2024. By 2027, this figure will rise to over 167 million units, accounting for nearly 60% of global PC shipments; IDC predicts that by the end of 2024, shipments of next-generation AI smartphones will reach 170 million units, accounting for nearly 15% of total smartphone shipments.

Comment: Lenovo has comprehensively accelerated AI transformation, and accelerated intelligent transformation through a full stack of AI-embedded smart terminals, AI-oriented infrastructure, and AI-native solution services. Recent catalysis: 1) AI servers are in short supply, and orders for the two AI servers released by Lenovo are booming. 2) Lenovo and Nvidia have teamed up to launch a hybrid AI solution. 3) Lenovo Group and Nyonic, an industry model expert, announced the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

This collaboration will not only help accelerate the expansion of practical applications of large model technology, but will also further promote the development of the AI PC ecosystem. Lenovo's new gaming ecosystem debuted at CES 2024, showcasing AI hard-core software technology to create your 3D digital avatar in seconds. The company brought more than 40 new devices and solutions based on artificial intelligence to the CES exhibition, including more than 10 AI PC products. Lenovo AI Now personal AI assistants will be deployed to the market in the first half of this year.

AI PCs will shorten the user switching cycle and accelerate the arrival of the switching wave. The proportion of users who have switched built-in PCs will double in two years, to 20% or more. The AI PC has edge computing power and is expected to solve the industry's pain points and become the first AI terminal to be launched in large quantities. Lenovo has achieved two consecutive quarters of month-on-month growth, with gross margin rising to 17.5% year over year, a record high for the second quarter. The company plans to invest a total of 1 billion dollars over the next three years to expand its artificial intelligence capabilities.

China Resources Beer (00291): The core product potential is rising, and Snowflake Beer is off to a good start

The production and sales volume of China Resources Snow Beer increased by more than 30% year on year in January 2024, achieved a tax increase of more than 20% year over year, and overall progress in 6 key indicators year on year achieved a good start.

Comment: The beer business is growing. In 2019, the company officially introduced high-end international brands such as Heineken. Among them, the core products Heineken, Snow White, and SuperX have outstanding competitive advantages, and product potential has already emerged. In 2022, the company achieved sales of 11.096 million tons of beer, ranking first in the domestic beer market, accounting for about 30% of the domestic beer market.

In terms of new product development and market operation, Snowflake Beer launched a 580ml new Samsung original product in January 2024. SuperX will launch an upgraded new product in the first half of 2024. The product is more cost-effective and is expected to accelerate growth. The liquor business has established a new growth point. The liquor business has yet to start. In 2021, the company began to lay out the liquor business. Currently, the liquor business's revenue and profit contribution is still small. It is expected to rely on its high-quality liquor products and brands to unlock growth potential through China Resources's strong channel network. The beer business remains a core pillar of the company.

Furthermore, the company will continue to promote multi-faceted efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency, which can play an auxiliary role in improving the company's profitability. The company clearly proposed a high-end development strategy in 2017 and began the path of transformation and upgrading. Since then, it has achieved significant improvements in profitability and rapid profit growth through measures such as upgrading the product structure, closing inefficient factories, and optimizing the organizational structure.

China Resources Land (01109): Achieved a total contract sales amount of 11.42 billion yuan in January, excellent commercial operation performance last year

In January 2024, the company achieved a total contract sales amount of about RMB 11.42 billion and a total contract sales floor area of about 5303.2 million square meters. In the same period, the equity contract sales amount and equity contract sales floor area were approximately RMB 7.74 billion and 367.02 million square meters respectively.

Comment: Sales increased year-on-year in '23, and new products accounted for a high proportion of the sales structure. The company's 23 year sales amount was 307 billion yuan, +1.7% year on year, equity sales amount was 215.5 billion yuan, +3.2% year over year, and equity 70.2%. The share of newly acquired high-quality resources in the past two years is quite high. In '23, the company acquired a total of 68 projects, with a full-caliber land acquisition amount of 178.3 billion yuan, a land acquisition area of 12.94 million square meters, with an equity ratio of 71%; the land acquisition amount in the 10 key cities accounted for 73%. In '23, the company acquired 8 new self-owned commercial projects, with a self-owned area exceeding 2 million square meters.

In terms of investment properties, in 2023, the company achieved rental income of 25.6 billion yuan from investment properties, +39% over the same period last year, with strong growth. In December '23, investment properties achieved rental income of 2.54 billion yuan, a record monthly rent scale of +39.8%; in January 2024, the rental income achieved was approximately RMB 2,430 billion, an increase of 10.6% over the previous year. In November of last year, the company's first public infrastructure REIT issued using Vientiane City in Qingdao as the underlying asset was approved for registration by the Securities Regulatory Commission, raising nearly 7 billion yuan in capital.

Recently, China Resources Land made major adjustments to its organizational structure, reorganizing the original seven regions into five regions to further improve the company's operational efficiency.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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