S&P left its record high for the time being. The NASDAQ fell to a two-year high, and the Dow hit a record high for four consecutive days. Guo Mingyi expects iPhone shipments to drop sharply this year, with Apple closing down nearly 2%; Microsoft set a record high and then falling; after the earnings report, Google fell more than 5% after the market, and AMD fell more than 5% after the earnings report; the chip stock index fell, and Nvidia hit a record high; GM closed up nearly 8% and UPS fell more than 8% after the earnings report. China's stock index fell more than 2%, falling four times in a row. NIO fell nearly 6%, and Station B fell more than 4%. The pan-European stock index hit a two-year high for three days, and French stocks recorded a record high.
After US job vacancies were announced without falling but rising, the 10-year US Treasury yield quickly broke away from a two-week low, once rising to 4.10%, then falling; the US dollar index once smoothed out the intraday decline and turned to a new high; gold futures, which rose more than 2% in the intraday period, took back most of the gains and still closed at a new two-week high. The offshore renminbi fell more than 100 points after approaching 7.18. Crude oil fell more than 1% in the intraday period and then turned higher, close to the February high. Luntong rose two times in a row to a one-month high.
After the market on Tuesday this week, an important upward trend in US stocks supported the artificial intelligence (AI) boom facing a major test. The three chip and application giants, AMD, Microsoft, and Google, all released financial reports. Before the giant's earnings report arrived, technology stocks put pressure on the market to decline. Google stopped the trend of setting record highs for several days, and the Microsoft disk turned down after hitting a record high. However, Nvidia bucked the market and continued to set new record highs.
Financial reports continue to affect leading stocks: GM's sales and profits for the fourth quarter were higher than expected, and the 2024 EPS profit was expected to grow, rising 10%; while the economic barometer — express delivery giant UPS, not only did its fourth quarter revenue fall short of expectations, but its guidance for the full year 2024 was also lower than expected, and announced 12,000 layoffs, and the stock price plummeted; after the market; Microsoft's fourth quarter performance was better than expected, and fluctuated and declined after the market; AMD's revenue guidance for the first quarter fell below expectations. The range was further expanded.
Furthermore, the latest research report by Apple's “The Prophet” and Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingyi attacked Apple. Guo Mingyi said that iPhone shipments may drop significantly this year due to structural challenges. iPhone 15 and 16 shipments will drop 10% to 15% year on year in the first half of this year and the second half of this year, respectively. He also mentioned that weekly iPhone shipments in China over the past few weeks have dropped sharply by 30% to 40% year on year.
The US JOLT job vacancies announced after early trading in the US stock market unexpectedly did not decline but increased, indicating that the labor market is more popular than expected. Investors are worried that the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday will also reflect this trend, dampening market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March.
After the job vacancy data was released, swap contract pricing showed that the probability of interest rate cuts expected by traders in March fell to about 35%; the NASDAQ decline widened; the price of European and US bonds fell sharply, and yields rebounded across the board. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield quickly broke away from the two-week low set before the data was released. At one point, it fell back to 4.10%, leveling off the increase in midday trading, and the two-year US Treasury yield, which is sensitive to interest rates, maintained an upward trend; the US dollar index rallied intraday, once softened the daily decline and rose to a new high level, then quickly returned to a downward trend.
Among commodities, gold continued to rebound, supported by US bond yields and the downturn in the US dollar. Futures closed at a new high in two weeks. They rose more than 2% in the intraday period, but after US job vacancies were announced, most of their gains were recovered. International crude oil fell more than 1% in the intraday period and then rose. Demand and supply sides supported higher oil prices on Tuesday: the IMF raised global economic growth requirements this year; the US re-imposed sanctions on Venezuela; and the Saudi government took an unexpected turn, instructing oil company Saudi Aramco to cancel plans to expand production capacity.
After S&P fell to historic highs, the Dow and Nvidia continued to record high earnings reports, Google fell more than 4% after the market, Microsoft fluctuated and turned into a decline
The three major US stock indexes opened lower across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 70 points and fell nearly 0.2% in early trading. At the end of early trading, it turned up and increased to more than 100 points in midday trading. The S&P 500 index fell close to 0.2% after turning up in the short term at the beginning of the session. At the end of early trading, it turned slightly higher, and then fell again. The Nasdaq Composite Index was in a downward trend throughout the day, falling more than 0.9% at a new low in midday trading.
In the end, of the three major indices, only the Dow closed higher, with an increase of 133.86 points, or 0.35%, to 38467.31 points. It rose for four consecutive trading days and reached a record closing record high for four consecutive days. S&P, which rebounded to an all-time high close on Monday, closed down 0.06% to 4924.97 points. The NASDAQ closed down 0.76% to 15509.90 points, falling to the high level since January 3, 2022, when it rebounded on Monday.
The small-cap stock index Russell 2000, which is mainly value stocks, closed down 0.76%, leaving the closing high since January 2, which was refreshed for two days. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which focuses on technology stocks, closed down 0.68%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology components in the NASDAQ 100 Index, closed down 0.88%. They all fell after rebounding and breaking a record closing high on Monday.
Among the constituent stocks of the Dow Index, financial stocks performed the best. J.P. Morgan closed up more than 2%, Goldman Sachs and American Express rose more than 1%, while Boeing had the highest decline of more than 2%, followed by Apple's decline.
Among the major S&P sectors, a total of five sectors closed down on Tuesday. Real estate fell 0.9%, communication services of IT and Google, where Apple and chip stocks are located, fell more than 0.7%, Amazon's non-essential consumer goods fell by more than 0.2%, and utilities fell slightly; among the six sectors that closed, benefiting from higher financial results from many large banks, energy rose 1%, and other sectors rose less than 0.6%.
Most of the leading technology stocks closed down. However, Tesla, which rose more than 4% on Monday, rose more than 2% at the beginning of the market, then fell, and still closed up nearly 0.4%. It continued to rebound after falling nearly 14% last week, breaking out of the closing low since May 19, 2023 for three consecutive trading days.
Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Microsoft and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, had mixed performance. Microsoft rose 0.8% at the beginning of the session, and continued to break its all-time high in early trading, closing down 0.3%. After announcing financial reports, it first jumped after announcing financial reports, once rose more than 1%, then fell more than 2% after the market; Alphabet closed down 1.3%, falling more than 5% after releasing financial reports; Apple closed down more than 2.2% in midday trading, closing down close to 2.2% in the afternoon session It fell five trading days, breaking the closing low since January 17; Netflix, which has been rising for four days and continuing to reach a new two-year high, closed down nearly 2.3%; Amazon, which has been rising for five consecutive days and repeatedly breaking its closing high since April 2022, closed down 1.4%; Facebook's parent company Meta, which hit a record high for five consecutive trading days, rose more than 1% in early trading and fell slightly in midday trading, closing down more than 0.2%.
Chip stocks generally declined. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closed down nearly 1.6% and more than 1.5%, respectively. After stopping two consecutive declines on Monday, they returned to the decline, breaking the closing low since January 18 set last Friday. Among individual stocks, Nvidia rose more than 1% in early trading, reaching a record high of nearly 0.5%, breaking the record closing record for two consecutive days; AMD fell nearly 4.7% in midday trading, closing down more than 3%, and after rebounding on Monday, it began falling below the historical closing high set last Thursday, falling more than 6% after announcing financial reports after the market; at the close, Intel and Qualcomm fell more than 2%.
Most AI concept stocks have retreated. At the close, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 6%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell nearly 5%, Palantir (PLTR) fell more than 2%, C3.ai (AI) fell 2%, and Adobe (ADBE) fell nearly 0.4%, while ultra-micro computers (SMCI), which had better than expected results in the second fiscal quarter and raised revenue guidance for the full fiscal year, rose 11.9% at the beginning of the session, setting a record high of 3.5% for two consecutive days.
Popular Chinese securities generally continued to decline. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down 2.3%, falling for four consecutive days until the closing low since January 22. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ fell more than 1% and 3% respectively in early trading. Among individual stocks, by the close, NIO Auto fell nearly 6%, Station B and Dada fell more than 4%, Jinshanyun fell more than 3%, JD and Xiaopeng Motors fell about 3%, Baidu and Tencent fans fell more than 2%, Alibaba and NetEase fell nearly 2%, Ideal Auto fell 0.9%, while the New Oriental market began to rise, closing up nearly 0.5%.
The bank stock index failed to continue to rise sharply. The overall banking index KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed up 0.9%, rising five times to a high level since March 2022; the regional banking index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), which has been high since two consecutive increases from Monday to January 2, closed down 0.7%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE), which has been high since December 28, closed down 0.4%.
Among the major banks, after Morgan Stanley raised the ratings of Citi, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, and said that the banking industry had bright prospects, Citi rose 5.5%, Bank of America rose 3.5%, J.P. Morgan Chase rose more than 2%, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo rose more than 1%, and Morgan Stanley, which had fallen close to 1% in early trading, closed.
After the Saudi government unexpectedly instructed Saudi Aramco to cancel plans to expand production capacity, the oil service industry index Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index (OSX) fell 5.2% in early trading, the biggest intraday decline since October 4, 2023, and closed down 1.9%. By the close, Weatherford International (WFRD) was down 12.5%, Schlumberger (SLB) was down 7.2%, National Oil Well Huagao (NOV) was down 5.5%, and Halliburton (HAL) was down 1%.
Among the individual stocks that announced financial reports, UPS (UPS), which had poor revenue and full-year guidance and announced 12,000 layoffs, closed down 8.2%; Pfizer (PFE), which had no EPS loss in the fourth quarter but had lower revenue than expected, quickly turned down 1.7% after rising more than 3% at the beginning of the session and closed down 1.7%; the low-cost airline JetBlue Airways (JBLU), which lowered its 2024-2027 capital expenditure guidelines, fell 8% in early trading; the home appliance manufacturer Whirlpool (WHR), which had lower revenue and profit guidance in 2024 than expected, closed down 6.2% 6%; Meanwhile, General Motors (GM) rose slightly more than 10% at the beginning of the session, closing up 7.8%; cybersecurity company F5 (FFIV), which had higher-than-expected revenue and profit in the first fiscal quarter; manufacturing service provider Sanmina (SANM), which had higher-than-expected earnings for the first fiscal quarter and guidance for the second fiscal quarter, rose 37.6% at the beginning of the session, closed up 28.2%; and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), which had better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the second quarter, closed 6.2%.
In terms of European stocks, some companies' financial reports are improving, and the pan-European stock index has been rising for five consecutive trading days. The European Stoxx 600 Index hit a closing high since January 13, 2022 for two consecutive days, and closed for the third day at a new high since January 2022. Stock indices of major European countries rose sharply. French stocks rose for five consecutive days, reaching record closing highs. Italian and Spanish stock indexes supported by bank stocks rose more than 1%, and both German stocks and British stocks rebounded.
Among the various sectors, banks closed up 1.8%, benefiting from a 32% increase in net profit in the fourth quarter, which surged 6.2%, and the automotive sector rose nearly 1.1%, due to rival Stellantis rising 3.8% after GM's quarterly report was better than expected. Among other individual stocks, German shipping giant Hapag Lloyd closed down 9.6% after announcing that earnings for the fourth quarter were lower than expected due to damage to shipping in the Red Sea; Saudi Aramco abandoned plans to expand production capacity, and individual stocks related to oil and gas drilling fell sharply. Italy's Saibom, Shelf Drilling, and Borr Drilling all closed down more than 10%.
After the announcement of US job vacancies, the 10-year US Treasury yield quickly broke away from a two-week low and then fell
European treasury bond prices have mostly declined, and European bond yields have generally risen after US job vacancies were announced. By the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark treasury bond closed at 3.90%, rising about 3 basis points during the day, breaking 3.85% before the US job data was released, and rapidly turned up after release; the 2-year British bond yield closed at 4.31%, rising about 8 basis points during the day. The European market was below 4.28% at the beginning of the session, breaking 4.35% after the US data was released; the yield on the benchmark 10-year German treasury bond closed at 2.27%, up about 3 basis points during the day, and broke 2.20% before the European market., updated January on 2 days It has been low since the 16th. After the US data was released, it pushed up 2.30%; the 2-year German bond yield closed at 2.50%, falling about 6 basis points during the day. European stocks fell 2.48% before the market to hit the low level since January 4. After the US data was released, it rose above 2.55%, leveling off most of the declines.
The yield on the US 10-year benchmark treasury bond fell below 4.04% before the European stock market, breaking the low level since January 16. It quickly rose to a new high of 4.10% after the announcement. It rose by nearly 3 basis points during the day. The rise turned down in midday trading. By the end of the bond market, it was about 4.03%, falling by about 4 basis points during the day, falling for 2 consecutive days.
The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell 4.29% to a new low of 4.29% before the announcement. US stocks rose 4.38% in midday trading and began to approach the high level since January 5, which was refreshed by 4.42% last Friday. It rose nearly 7 basis points during the day, about 4.33% at the end of the bond market, and rose more than 1 basis point during the day, after falling back on Monday.
After the announcement of US job vacancies, the US dollar index rose to a new daily high
The ICE dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, including the euro, remained declining throughout the day on Tuesday. The number of US job vacancies reached a new low of 103.30 and fell close to 0.3% during the day. After the data was released, the intraday decline rose above 103.60 and a new daily high. Since then, the decline has expanded, and fell below the intraday high since December 13, when it rose above 103.80 on Monday.
By the close of the US stock market on Tuesday, the US dollar index was close to 103.40, falling close to 0.2% during the day, falling back after a slight increase on Monday; the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell less than 0.1%, falling for three days in a row.
Among non-US currencies, data shows that the Eurozone avoided technical recession in the fourth quarter. EUR/USD turned intraday high. In early trading, the US stock market reached a new daily high of 1.0860, rising more than 0.2% during the day, breaking away from the low level since December 13 when it fell below 1.0800 on Monday; the Japanese yen rebounded on Monday. After US job vacancies were announced, the dollar jumped intraday against the Japanese yen. US stocks rose above 147.90 in early trading, rising nearly 0.3% during the day, breaking from the weekly low of 146.70 compared to the US dollar vacancies last Wednesday; Test 1.2640 below, It hit a new low since January 17, falling more than 0.5% during the day.
The offshore renminbi (CNH) was close to the 7.18 mark and reached a new daily high of 7.1810 in early Asian trading, rising 65 points during the day. European stocks fell to a new low of 7.1924 in early trading, approaching the intraday low since January 23, which was refreshed on Monday. It fell 114 points from the daily high, and then turned slightly higher. At 5:59 Beijing time on January 31, the offshore RMB was 7.1,869 yuan against the US dollar, up 6 points from the end of Monday's New York session, and barely maintained Monday's rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued to rise. The rise moderated from Monday, when the US stock market rose above $1,000. It rose above $43,800 on Tuesday, breaking the high level since January 12. It rose more than $700 to the intraday low of 43,000 US dollars in early Asian trading, and accelerated its decline after the announcement of US job vacancies. It fell below $43,200 in early trading, and expanded later. US stocks closed above $43,600, up about 1% in the last 24 hours.
Crude oil fell more than 1% in the intraday period and then rose close to a February high
International crude oil futures turned higher intraday on Tuesday. After European stocks declined in early trading, US stocks fell below $75.90 and fell 1.2% during the day. Brent crude oil fell below $81.40, fell nearly 1.3% during the day, and continued to rebound. US stocks turned up in early trading. At a fresh high in midday trading, US oil rose above $78.10, rising nearly 1.8% during the day.
By the close, WTI crude oil futures for March closed up 1.35% to $77.82 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for March closed up 0.53% to $82.87 per barrel, and both began to approach the closing high of two months since the end of November, which had been set for two consecutive days last Friday.
US gasoline and natural gas futures rose sharply. NYMEX gasoline futures for February, which stopped two consecutive days on Monday, closed up 1.4% to $2.2607 per gallon, and did not continue to fall below the high level since October 27, which was refreshed last Friday; NYMEX March natural gas futures closed up 1.1% to 2.0770 US dollars/million British thermal units, rebounding after three consecutive days of decline, and are still close to the closing low of nine months since April 2023.
Luntong rose two times in a row to a one-month high, and gold futures closed at a two-week high, after rising more than 2% in the intraday period, regaining most of their gains
London basic metals futures mostly rose on Tuesday. Luntong rose for two days, closing at 8,600 US dollars for the first time since the end of December. Lun lead continued to rise for three days, continuing to reach a new two-month high. Lun Ni and Lun Aluminum, which declined on Monday, rebounded. Lunnickel did not continue to fall below the high level since the end of December, and Lunlan Aluminum tied the three-week high set last Friday. Lunzinc, which had been falling for three days, also rebounded and began to approach the three-week high set last Wednesday. Meanwhile, Renxi fell to a low level for two days to a week in a row.
New York gold futures maintained gains throughout the day on Tuesday. US stocks rose to a new daily high of 2,068 US dollars at the beginning of the session, rising 2.1% during the day, and gradually regained most of their gains after US job vacancies were announced.
In the end, COMEX gold futures for February closed up 0.3% to 2031.5 US dollars/ounce, rising for two consecutive days, breaking the closing high since January 12.
Spot gold rose above 2048.60 US dollars in early trading, breaking the high level since January 16. It rose nearly 0.8% during the day. After US job vacancies were announced, it quickly regained more than half of its gains. US stocks were below $2,040 at the close and rose nearly 0.2% during the day.
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