On January 6, the photovoltaic sector strengthened across the board, with BC batteries leading the way. As of press release, TCL Central has risen or stopped, Aixu shares have risen 7.72%, Jingao Technology has risen 6.51%, and Longji Green Energy, Foster, and Yubang New Materials have risen by more than 3%.

The Hong Kong stock market also performed well. Camdank Solar rose more than 12%, Xinyi Solar and Follett Glass rose more than 3%, and GCL Technology, Xinyi Glass, and GCL New Energy rose more than 2%.

According to the news, InfoLink data shows that in January of this year, PV modules are scheduled to be produced at 49 GW, and 42 GW is scheduled to be produced in China. According to the past, around the Spring Festival was the traditional low season for the photovoltaic industry, and module manufacturers often lowered their operating rates. However, the operating rate of component manufacturers in January of this year was better than expected.

The institutional research report predicts that in 2023, domestic PV installed capacity is expected to be close to 200GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 129%, accounting for 48% of global demand; in 2024, the share of overseas demand is expected to increase. Under the joint efforts of diversified markets, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 470 GW in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 13%.

Exports of the “Three New Types” broke trillion for the first time

On January 12, the press conference of the State Information Office released the 2023 foreign trade report card,New energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic productsThe “Three New Types” represented by it are famous all over the world. The total export of the “three new” products was 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking the trillion mark for the first time, and an increase of 29.9%.

From now on, photovoltaic modules have become a new business card for China's foreign trade exports. Compared with other new energy sources such as wind power, the PV sector has the advantage of being distributed. This method is a layout method that is closer to users and makes use of vast resources such as roofs and floors, so that energy transformation can reach thousands of households. Distributed photovoltaics is the current highlight of the photovoltaic industry, and it is also an area that can maintain high growth for decades to come.

Looking specifically at a set of data, in November 2023, PV added 21.32 GW of installed capacity, an increase of 56.5% over the previous month; in January-November, PV added a total of 163.88 GW of installed capacity. Various agencies predict that China's new PV installations are expected to reach 180 GW in 2023, which is double that of last year.

As the BC battery technology route becomes more mature, by bringing a larger effective power generation area, the combination of HJT and TopCon technology is rapidly replacing TopCon batteries and becoming the absolute mainstream within the next 5 to 6 years.

Looking forward to the future, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is still on a downward trend as silicon wafers become larger and thinner, batteries are switching from PERC to new technologies such as TopCon and BC, and the module scale effect continues to be reflected. These are all unmatched by other technologies such as thermal power.

Future growth will be sustainable in the long term

Since the beginning of 2024, the PV sector has undergone major adjustments, and the valuation level of the industry is already very low. As of January 17, the price-earnings ratio of the PV equipment index was only 11.65 times. The quantile value over the past ten years was 0.98%, which is at the bottom of history.

Haitong Securities said that since 2023, there has been a marked price drop in the photovoltaic industry chain, which will help increase the yield of photovoltaic power generation, clearly stimulate terminal demand, and the future growth of the industry will be sustainable for a long time.

Furthermore, demand for installed equipment in overseas regions is also expected to increase. Jibang Consulting predicts that in 2024, the world will add 474 GW of PV installed capacity, an increase of 16% over the previous year. Among them, European countries drastically raised their long-term PV installation targets in 2023 and implemented a number of favorable policies. In 2024, Europe will add 90 GW of new installed capacity, which is expected to maintain steady growth for a long time, at a rate of 14%; the overall number of new installed capacity in the Americas is expected to reach 87 GW, an increase of 33% over the previous year.

Pacific Securities pointed out that, driven by the expansion of photovoltaic production capacity and technological iteration, prices in the industrial chain are rapidly declining, and optical storage parity is gradually being rolled out in various regions. At the same time, with the end of the interest rate hike cycle and the reform of the new power system, the installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, with the impact of factors such as the accelerated release of production capacity in the fourth quarter of 2023, high inventories, and a phased off-season, supply-side reshaping accelerated, and a new cycle of supply and demand began. 2024 is a year of accelerated policy changes in overseas markets, focusing on the opportunities brought by changes in high-profit market policies.

Guolian Securities also said that the PV sector fell 29.3% in 2023, and valuations have fallen to a 12-fold historical low. The main driving force of the industry is shifting from demand to supply, showing the following characteristics in the process:

1) “Homogenization” and “differentiation” coexist, and cost control+advanced technology is the key to victory; 2) Demand and product differentiation spawn multiple technical directions and guide competitive diversion; 3) Market segments such as regions and application scenarios rotate. Demand growth in 2024 is mainly in overseas+distributed fields.