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开源证券:三底递进 优质银行有望迎景气修复与价值重估

Open source securities: progressing to the bottom of the three, high-quality banks are expected to welcome economic recovery and revaluation

Zhitong Finance ·  11/09/2023 14:00

Open Source Securities believes that investors still have doubts about economic recovery or are not fully aware of the importance of bank revaluation.

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Open Source Securities published a research report saying that with the three stages progressing, the banking sector may welcome a better time window. 1) Policy bottom: Regulatory attitudes tend to stabilize bank profits, chemical insurance and credit repair in key areas; 2) Performance bottom: performance for the first three quarters of 2023 may bottom out, interest spreads have declined or narrowed, risk exposure is fully calculated, and 2024 is a better volume-price balance; 3) Market bottom: the end of the year and beginning of the year is a time window where the banking sector is likely to perform well. The bank believes that investors still have doubts about the recovery of the economy or are not fully aware of the importance of bank revaluation. First, investment banks should depend on expectations. Market performance improves as expectations improve, and as expectations of economic recovery strengthen, they lay out on the left side ahead of schedule.

Open source securities views are as follows:

The bank rules are impending economic recovery, and still water is flowing deep into bank stocks

Looking at the short term, the turbulence of the epidemic has just passed, and the recovery of the economic environment is still under pressure in the short term, but the general direction of economic recovery is clear. Banks are a typical procyclical sector, and their market performance is closely related to the economic cycle. The reason why the bank calls bank stocks “still flowing deep” is that compared to other sectors ① long-term undervaluation; ② performance fluctuations are low; ③ in addition to capital gains, they can contribute higher dividends to investors; ④ high-quality banks have the ability to cross the cycle.

Bank operations faced quadruple pressure in 2023, but bank stock performance still outperformed the market

(1) A good start, volume and price are unbalanced; large banks have overlent loans, and small banks have passively bought debt; (2) the retail side is difficult to adjust after the epidemic; bank passive liabilities, residents' early loan repayment, and wealth management logic have faced phased challenges; (3) the ability to control risk cannot be saved, real estate becomes less dependent, and focus on urban investment trends under a package of debt packages; (4) stabilizing revenue and non-interest demand efficiency; marketing has fallen into fatigue, and self-employment fluctuations have accelerated. Under quadruple pressure, bank stock performance still outperformed the market. The logic behind this is that sector valuations are declining and capital selection preferences are increasing. However, as the pressure situation improves, this phenomenon is expected to continue

Progressing from the bottom of the three, the banking sector may welcome a better time window

(1) Policy bottom: Regulatory attitudes tend to stabilize bank profits, chemical insurance and credit repair in key areas; (2) Performance bottom: performance in the first three quarters of 2023 may bottom out, interest spreads have declined or narrowed, risk exposure is fully calculated, and 2024 is a better volume-price balance; (3) Market bottom: the end of the year and beginning of the year is a time window where the banking sector is likely to perform well, because demand for steady growth is strong at this time, and bank credit leniency is strong.

High quality banks are expected to usher in economic recovery and revaluation

The bank believes that investors still have doubts about the recovery of the economy or are not fully aware of the importance of bank revaluation. First, investment banks should depend on expectations. Market performance improves as expectations improve, and as expectations of economic recovery strengthen, they lay out on the left side ahead of schedule.

Beneficial targets:

1) Regional banks with greater economic elasticity: Bank of Ningbo (002142.SZ), Bank of Chengdu (601838.SH), Bank of Jiangsu (600919.SH), Bank of Suzhou (002966.SZ), Bank of Changshu (), Bank of Changshu (); 601128.SH 601528.SH

2) As expectations of economic recovery strengthen, stock banks with more room for valuation repair, such as China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) and Ping An Bank (000001.SZ);

3) Banks with stable dividend ratios, excellent dividend rates, and excellent cost performance, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398.SH), Agricultural Bank (601288.SH), Postal Savings Bank (), and China CITIC Bank (). 601658.SH 601998.SH

Risk warning:The progress of economic recovery is lower than expected; the regulatory environment is becoming more stringent, etc.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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