Guotai Junan Securities released a research report saying that on September 25, the State Administration of Press and Publication announced the approval information for domestic online games for September 2023. A total of 89 imported versions have been issued this time. The domestic game version has been reissued, and the version number is expected to stabilize and the industry's recovery momentum will not change. The recommended targets are Tencent Holdings (00700), NetEase S (09999), Xindong Company (02400), and Bilibili SW (09626).
The main views of Guotai Junan Securities are as follows:
In September, the domestic version was reissued, and the quantity and quality of the version were stable and the supply recovery did not change. A total of 89 domestic game versions have been distributed in this batch. Since the July batch, they have been re-distributed. The time of release is similar to July, and the number of games distributed has remained the same. A total of 757 game versions have been distributed throughout the year, with a total of 699 and 58 Chinese and imported versions, respectively. The total number of versions has far exceeded that of the whole of last year.
In terms of version structure, this batch of domestic mobile games dominates, with mobile, client, mobile client, and console games accounting for 81, 1, 6, and 1 console respectively, with mobile games accounting for 98%. In terms of game types, the number of mobile-casual puzzle games is 16, a decrease compared to the July batch, and the number and categories of medium to heavy games have all increased. Previously, the market was overly concerned about the lack of domestic versions in August. As domestic versions were issued as scheduled in September, the quantity and timing of issuance remained stable, and industry supply is expected to continue to recover once doubts about industry regulation have been eliminated.
Key listed companies have all made gains, and the industry's upward performance has gradually been realized. Industry regulation has become stricter; product launch progress has fallen short of expectations; product launch performance has fallen short of expectations. In terms of manufacturer structure, many key listed vendors have made gains, including NetEase's “Tiangaki Chronicles” (mobile), Xindong's “Let's Go Muffin”, “Chikuma Rouge Shop”, “Echo Plan” (mobile), the Chinese mobile game “Breaking the Sky: Pinnacle Showdown”, “The Daily Life of a Chat Group”, “The Business Life of a Village Love” (mobile), Chuangtiandi's “Witch Diary” (mobile), and the celadon game “Ares Virus 2”.
Meanwhile, according to Gamma data, in July, the Chinese game market reached 28.610 billion yuan, +37.5% year on year, mobile game market size was 22.110 billion yuan, +51.1% year on year, and the mobile game market fully exploded to accelerate industry recovery. According to Sensor Tower, in August, global mobile game player payments reached 6.59 billion US dollars, China's iOS market ranked 2nd, with a market share of 20%, up +0.3 pct. China's market share increased for 2 consecutive months.
The agency believes that since the summer season, the industry has shown flexibility on the demand side, and the supply side is expected to further accelerate the recovery of the market under successive approvals and product trends. In the second half of the year, key vendors are expected to be released from the revenue-profit ladder. Combined with the impact of the Hong Kong stock gaming sector, valuation is still below the center of history due to the impact of the market environment, and the improvement in industry prosperity and the performance of the company will accelerate valuation recovery.
Risk warning: geopolitical conflict; AI technology development falls short of expectations; AI regulatory risks increase.