[Anatomy Board]
Hong Kong stocks are falling habitually again, because the favorable stamp duty circulating in the market yesterday did not see any follow-up news. This year, unfavorable declines have become the norm. The Hang Seng Index closed at 18,329 points and was close to 18,000 points.
However, the trend of US stocks will only fall if they are favorable or weak. The latest “black swan” fermentation. Fitch warned the market that there is a risk that the overall rating of the US banking industry will be downgraded again, and that banks' ratings cannot be higher than their industry ratings. This will prompt them to re-evaluate more than 70 American banks. The ratings of J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America may be downgraded from AA- to A+. If big name banks like DAMO were downgraded, it would be a huge blow to market confidence. Overnight, the three major US stock indices all fell. Drawing on the collapse of small US banks earlier, if interest rates are raised again, it may affect other banks. Therefore, the interest rate hike in September may ease, but the November interest rate hike is still not ruled out, and it is unlikely that interest rate cuts will begin within the year. Because consumption data is still very strong, there has been no significant reduction in inflation.
Domestic data are uninteresting. Basically, they are all weakening; there are no signs of improvement yet. The most serious is real estate data. In January-July, the country's investment in real estate development fell 8.5% year on year, new housing construction area fell 24.5%, and sales area fell 6.5% year on year. The situation is better than the situation. The central bank began cutting interest rates yesterday. The subsequent effect will depend on the strength of the LPR reduction on the 21st. There is also relevant news in the market today: a few days ago, the Guangdong provincial government organized a meeting of housing enterprises. A number of senior management of state-owned enterprises in the real estate center participated. As a first-tier region, Guangdong acts as a weather vane. Currently, although various favorable measures have been introduced one after another, only loosening of the real estate policies of first-tier cities can have a greater effect, because only such cities have purchasing power and can also play a radiative role. Today's news has had some effect on real estate stocks. In particular, housing companies that have made some progress in the debt direction have all performed well. Longhu Group (00960), which previously had early debt repayment, rose 3.74%; today, Ocean Group (03377) rose 8.82%: the company clarified that the number of votes was sufficient to be exempt from default. Country Garden Services (06098), Baolong Commercial (09909), China Resources Land (01109), and Vanke (02202) all rose simultaneously.
There are also many people on the Hong Kong stock market complaining about the intensifying stamp duty reduction incident: since Hong Kong stocks raised the stamp duty rate to 0.13% in August 2021, the average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 fell by about 25% year on year. The average daily turnover from January to July 2023 was only 113.6 billion yuan. Currently, it is less than 10 million, and there is a risk that liquidity will gradually run out. At this stage, it is particularly urgent to reduce stamp duty in the Hong Kong market. In fact, even if it falls back from 0.13% to 0.1%, as long as liquidity improves and trading becomes active, the taxes collected by the government may still be higher than they are now. The Hong Kong government will also consider this idea in the next few months, but time is currently tight; it is estimated that the results will not be good if it is too late. Also, the dividend tax is also a point of criticism. Once a dividend is generated, a 20% dividend tax must be paid. At this point, it is no exaggeration to give profits to investors as much as possible and create a good investment atmosphere.
In the current environment, global funding would be more inclined to short-term speculation. Because most of the normal investment logic has been disrupted, there are no stable expectations for big capital, forcing capital to only go in the direction of speculation. The Vietnamese electric vehicle company Vinfast went public on the US stock market last night, directly surging several times. The closing market value was 86 billion US dollars, surpassing the market value of traditional car companies such as Toyota. This amazing trend is due to the fact that the listing circulation market is very small, and very little capital can boost stock prices. This state of affairs is bound not to last long. Because the Vinfast company currently produces about 30,000 cars per year, which is about equal to the ideal monthly production volume, everyone knows what level of car construction in Vietnam is; the market value of this kind of car company is actually as high as 86 billion US dollars. It's ridiculous to think about it. The ideal market capitalization would be over $40 billion. Domestic car companies continue to fall into a price war. After sales fell in July, Musk mentioned at Tesla's second-quarter results conference that if the economic environment continues to deteriorate, Tesla will continue to lower car prices to guarantee sales. On Wednesday, August 16, Tesla's official website announced that the current Tesla Model S/X in China will be reduced in price again. All current models can enjoy price discounts ranging from 54,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan; Model S cars will start at 754,900 yuan, with the original price starting at 808,900 yuan; the current Model X will start at 836,900 yuan, starting at 836,900 yuan at the original price starting at 899,900 yuan. There are also benefits such as free overcharging, referral rewards, and FSD time-limited transfers for 3 years/6 years.
The Hong Kong stock market is also hyping up a lot. Clover Bio-B (02197) has been very strong in the past two days. After announcing the day before yesterday that its net profit for the first half of this year will rise 47% by no less than 500 million yuan, today it has risen again by 17.65%. Some investors criticized receiving a subsidy of 2.5 billion yuan to make a profit of 500 million yuan. However, there are still some stories about clover. If its vaccine is approved in the third quarter, it is expected that new overseas orders will open up space for global sales. If progress goes smoothly and profits are not ruled out, it is the second 3D TOWARDS (01244) to pick out the “B” concept.
Other directions include consumption recovery, such as Fosun Travel (01992), Alibaba Pictures (01060), China Central Free (01880), and Zulong Entertainment (09990).
Hong Kong stocks have reached this point. Next is the 18,000 point mark. This is an important mark, and it is also a low point during the year. If this position falls further, the market will fall into panic. Xinhua News Agency: Discrediting and crackdown will not change the appeal of the Chinese market. Hoping for something a little more real.
[Sector Focus]
LATEST FOREIGN NEWS: Packaging inserts have been used in other countries — including Canada and Israel, Australia has announced its intention to introduce them — and there is evidence that they can be an effective means of encouraging smokers to quit smoking. An assessment of the policy's impact in Canada found that nearly one-third of smokers have read an indentation at least once in the past month, while those exposed to it multiple times are more likely to try to quit smoking. The consultation is based on a recent package of measures to push the government to achieve the smoke-free target by 2030, which means reducing smoking rates to 5% or less.
These measures include funding a new national “cigarette exchange” scheme (the first of its kind in the world), providing 1 million smokers across England with a free e-cigarette starter kit and expert support. Launch a financial incentive program I - in the form of vouchers and behavioral support 1 - to support pregnant women to quit smoking, with the goal of benefiting all pregnant smokers by the end of next year. A new strategy to combat illegal tobacco will outline efforts to apprehend and punish illegal market participants.
Once e-cigarettes are recognized as an effective means of encouraging smokers to quit, then this space becomes wider. The main types of Hong Kong stocks: Small International (06969), China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055), Huabao International (00336).
[Individual Stock Nuggets]
Weimue Group (02013): SaaS business with performance exceeding expectations in the first half of the year ushered in steady growth
The company announced its 2023 interim financial report. Total revenue for the first half of 2023 reached RMB 1.21 billion, an increase of 34.5% over the previous year. The company's main SaaS business ushered in growth. Subscription solution revenue during the period was 706 million yuan, up 21.4% year on year, gross profit increased 36.6% year on year to 816 million yuan, and adjusted net loss narrowed sharply by 55.2% compared to the same period last year. Among them, Weimei helped merchants invest 6.988 billion dollars in gross revenue, a sharp increase of 66.1% over the previous year.
Comment: In response to the growing trend of digital demand in retail enterprises, Weimue launched an integrated omni-channel user operation solution for enterprises. Currently, more than 22% of existing customers and more than 40% of new customers have adopted it. Based on the TSO full-link marketing strategy, Weimeng's merchant solution business revenue surged 58.3% year on year to 504 million yuan during the period, the number of paying merchants increased 51.3% to 40,494, the average revenue per user rose 4.6% to 12,452 yuan, and the gross revenue it helped merchants invest reached 6.988 billion yuan, a sharp surge of 66.1% over the previous year. Weimue has now served more than 5,000 brands to enter video channels, helping many leading brands in the industry, such as Lenovo, Mengniu Chunqiang, and Anta, achieve business growth through video channels. As of the first half of 2023, Weimue Group service providers had launched more than 32,000 broadcasts, and self-broadcasters had a GMV of over 570 million. It is worth noting that Weimue continues to increase investment in research and development of new AI technologies. Weimeng WAI, the first applied product based on the AI model, was released in the first half of 2023. During the “618” promotion period this year, the amount of use of Weimue WAI by merchants showed a trend of doubling. Taking the SaaS integration scenario as an example, Weimeng WAI's weekly content generation increased by 63%, including a 400% increase in public account tweets, a 257% increase in the titles of planting notes, and a 243% increase in rotating broadcasts. Further establish the competitiveness and leading position of the Weimei Union in the domestic SaaS industry.
Oriental Selection (01797): App Downloads Increased, Dual Platform Live Streaming Launched
The total number of downloads of the Oriental Choice App has exceeded 5 million. As of August 4, 2023, the most ordered sausage products on the Oriental Choice App have placed 230,000 orders. The Oriental Choice App once again hit a new high in sales, reaching 35 million yuan in single-day sales on July 29. Meanwhile, during the four-day promotion campaign, sales even surpassed 110 million yuan. Oriental Selection is expected to gradually form a second growth curve by developing a self-operated app platform through a series of key business transfers and promotions.
Comment: Oriental Choice App decided to extend the promotion period so that more people can enjoy the discount. The extended promotion will continue until July 31, and proprietary products will be sold at 85% off. The app shows that many proprietary products have sold out, and some pre-sale items have also been sold out. Simultaneous live broadcast on July 5: The trip to Gansu officially launched the APP+ Douyin dual-platform simultaneous live broadcast. On June 30, Oriental Selection's app was updated to version 2.0.0. On July 5, the new app launched its first live broadcast (Gansu trip) and got off to a good start. During the Gansu trip from July 5 to July 9, more than 100,000 people were online at the same time. The total number of viewers was over 50 million. Related topics appeared on top searches more than 10 times, and the number of related short video views exceeded 200 million times. According to Qimai's data, the number of iOS downloads of the Oriental Choice App in July exceeded 557,000 vs. the number of iOS downloads of the Sam's Member Store app of 505,000. The Dongfang Choice WeChat Index reached 120 million, breaking the circle once again.
China Free (01880): In July, duty-free sales on the outlying islands were about 2.64 billion yuan. Hainan accelerated the recovery of the outlying islands duty-free market
According to information from Haikou Customs, from January to July 2023, Haikou Customs supervised a total of 28.93 billion yuan of duty-free sales on Hainan's outlying islands. The number of duty-free shoppers was 4.199 million, and the number of duty-free shopping items was 34.03 million. Among them, in July alone, duty-free sales on Hainan's outlying islands were about 2.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34%.
Comment: In early August, Hainan issued a new batch of duty-free vouchers for the outlying islands. Among them, the Hainan provincial government issued about 5 million yuan vouchers and the Haikou municipal government issued about 10 million yuan vouchers. Continue to consolidate the positive trend of the outlying islands duty-free consumer market by holding the 2nd Hainan International Outlying Islands Duty Free Shopping Festival and going outside the province to carry out duty-free publicity and promotion activities on the outlying islands. Guotai Junan pointed out that duty-free shopping in the city has significant advantages in improving consumers' shopping experience, supporting the purchase of non-standard products, and increasing the profitability of duty-free merchants. The estimated market space exceeds 40 billion yuan. China surrendered 49% of its shares in the capital increase, and its position in the duty-free market in the city is more stable. It is expected to contribute about 2.5 billion dollars in profit growth under the current equity structure. The free cash flow is abundant and can replicate Dufry's mergers and acquisitions: cross-industry mergers and acquisitions expand the business landscape, cross-regional mergers and acquisitions open up new markets, etc. Focus on potential marginal improvement factors such as the company's future expansion of business area, entry of major luxury brands, introduction of local policies, and renegotiation of airport rents. Haitang Bay Phase I Site 2 and the French Garden at Sanya Phoenix International Airport are actively preparing for opening and are expected to bring about an increase in performance.