Hi,
moomoo ID:NaN
Log Out
English
Back
Log in to access Online Inquiry

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC)

Simply Wall St ·  {{timeTz}}

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Western Digital

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$897.0m US$772.5m US$747.5m US$734.9m US$730.6m US$731.8m US$736.9m US$744.8m US$754.7m US$766.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x2 Est @ -3.23% Est @ -1.68% Est @ -0.6% Est @ 0.17% Est @ 0.7% Est @ 1.07% Est @ 1.33% Est @ 1.51%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6% US$826 US$655 US$584 US$528 US$484 US$446 US$414 US$385 US$359 US$336

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$5.0b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$766m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (8.6%– 1.9%) = US$12b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$12b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= US$5.1b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$10b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$32.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcfNasdaqGS:WDC Discounted Cash Flow September 28th 2022

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Western Digital as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.569. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Western Digital, we've compiled three further factors you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does WDC have a healthy balance sheet ? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does WDC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

This presentation is for informational and educational use only and is not a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy. Investment information provided in this content is general in nature, strictly for illustrative purposes, and may not be appropriate for all investors. It is provided without respect to individual investors’ financial sophistication, financial situation, investment objectives, investing time horizon, or risk tolerance. You should consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to your relevant personal circumstances before making any investment decisions. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content.

Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc.
In the U.S., investment products and services available through the moomoo app are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a member of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)/Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC).
In Singapore, investment products and services available through the moomoo app are offered through Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. is a Capital Markets Services Licence (License No. CMS101000) holder with the Exempt Financial Adviser Status. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
In Australia, financial products and services available through the moomoo app are provided by Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, an Australian Financial Services Licensee (AFSL No. 224663) regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). Please read and understand our Financial Services Guide, Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy and other disclosure documents which are available on our websites https://www.futuau.com and https://www.moomoo.com/au. Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd. and Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd are affiliated companies.