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Dividend Stocks Have New Competition: Cash

Dividend Stocks Have New Competition: Cash

股息股票有新的競爭:現金
Wall Street Journal ·  2023/03/12 23:32

Stocks used to be the only game in town for investors chasing robust returns. That is hardly the case any more.

股票曾經是投資者追逐強勁回報的唯一遊戲。現在很難再出現這種情況了。

Soaring inflation has pushed government-bond yields to their highest levels in more than a decade. That, coupled with a soggy stock market, has led to a steady decline in the number of stocks that offer comparatively high yields: There were just 34 stocks in the S&P 500 with a dividend yield above that on the six-month Treasury bill as of Friday, according to Birinyi Associates. The six-month yield settled at 5.116%, according to Dow Jones Market Data

通脹飆升已將政府債券收益率推高至十多年來的最高水準。再加上股市低迷,導致提供相對較高收益率的股票數量穩步減少:根據Birinyi Associates的數據,截至上週五,標準普爾500指數中只有34只股票的股息收益率高於6個月期美國國債的股息收益率。根據道瓊恩斯市場數據,6個月期國債收益率為5.116%

That is a dramatic shift from much of the past decade when interest rates were near zero and hundreds of stocks within the index offered higher yields. At the end of 2021, before interest rates began to rise, there were 379 index constituents that offered a better yield than the Treasury bill, according to Birinyi.

與過去10年的大部分時間相比,這是一個戲劇性的轉變,當時利率接近於零,該指數中的數百隻股票提供了更高的收益率。根據Birinyi的數據,2021年底,在利率開始上升之前,有379個指數成分股提供了比國債更好的收益率。

Because U.S. government bonds are considered to be safer than even blue-chip stocks, some investors say it is difficult to justify putting money in the relatively risky stock market. The extra yield from a dividend-paying stock isn't worth the added chance that a company will endure a business slump, they say, especially because of the uncertain economic outlook. 

由於美國政府債券被認為比藍籌股更安全,一些投資者表示,很難證明將資金投入風險相對較高的股市是合理的。他們說,派息股票的額外收益不值得一家公司承受業務低迷的額外機會,特別是在經濟前景不確定的情況下。

There's no reason whatsoever to buy a risky company just because it's in the same yield ZIP Code as cash," said Macro4Micro editor Glenn Reynolds, who said he has more than 80% of his portfolio in cash.

Macro4Micro的編輯格倫·雷諾茲說,沒有任何理由僅僅因為一家高風險公司的郵遞區號與現金收益率相同就買入它。

Stocks and bond yields tumbled last week over worries about the health of the banking sector and a hotter-than-expected labor market. A sharp decline in bank stocks, however, raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve might be forced to end its tightening campaign sooner than previously expected. The S&P 500 is up 0.6% this year and down 19% from its January 2022 peak. 

上週,由於對銀行業健康狀況和高於預期的勞動力市場的擔憂,股票和債券收益率大幅下跌。然而,銀行股的大幅下跌增加了這樣一種可能性,即美聯儲可能會被迫比之前預期的更早結束緊縮行動。標準普爾500指數今年上漲0.6%,較2022年1月的峰值下跌19%。

The state of the economy will be in focus again this week as investors seek clues on the path of interest rates. Consumer-price index data for February is expected Tuesday, while retail sales data is due Wednesday. Earnings from $FedEx (FDX.US)$ are scheduled for Thursday.

本週,隨著投資者尋找利率路徑的線索,經濟狀況將再次成為關注的焦點。2月份的消費者價格指數數據預計將於週二公佈,而零售銷售數據將於週三公佈。來自以下專案的收益$聯邦快遞 (FDX.US)$定於週四舉行。

The yield curve remains sharply inverted, meaning short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term rates. That reflects uncertainty surrounding the economy's long-run direction.

收益率曲線仍然急劇倒置,這意味著短期利率高於長期利率。這反映出圍繞經濟長期方向的不確定性。

From a top down perspective, the yield curve is sending a cautionary message to equity investors," said Ryan Hedrick, portfolio manager of the T.Rowe Price value fund. In such environments, dividend payments often account for a greater share of investor returns than from capital appreciation, he said.

T.Rowe Price Value基金的投資組合經理Ryan Hedrick表示,從自上而下的角度來看,收益率曲線正在向股票投資者發出警示資訊。他說,在這種環境下,股息支付在投資者回報中所佔的份額往往大於資本增值。

Dividend-paying stocks were a bright spot in last year's battered market. The S&P 500 High Dividend Index fell 1.1% last year including payouts, compared with an 18% decline for the broad index. The index has fallen 4.9% in 2023.

在去年遭受重創的市場中,派息股票是一個亮點。包括股息在內,標準普爾500高股息指數去年下跌了1.1%,相比之下,大盤指數下跌了18%。該指數在2023年下跌了4.9%。

Despite the turmoil in markets, companies in the S&P 500 have continued to boost dividend payouts to investors. They paid out a record $564.6 billion in 2022 and are on course to set another high this year based on current dividend rates and assuming no membership changes to the index, according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices.  

儘管市場動盪,但標準普爾500指數成份股公司繼續增加向投資者支付的股息。根據標普道瓊恩斯指數(S&P Dow Jones Indices)的數據,他們在2022年支付了創紀錄的5646億美元,根據目前的股息率,並假設該指數的成員不發生變化,今年有望再創新高。

The list of highest-yielding stocks includes many old-economy businesses. Companies typically return cash through dividends or repurchase their stock when the business generates more cash flow than needed to fund operations. These businesses generally have mature operations that generate significant cash flow but increase sales and profits more slowly than in more nascent industries like technology.

收益率最高的股票名單中包括許多傳統經濟企業。當企業產生的現金流超過為運營提供資金所需時,公司通常通過股息或回購股票來返還現金。這些企業通常擁有成熟的業務,能夠產生可觀的現金流,但與科技等更新的行業相比,增長銷售和利潤的速度要慢得多。

Several energy companies such as $Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.US)$ and $Coterra Energy (CTRA.US)$ are on the list, with dividend yields of 13% and 10%. Some energy companies have even paid out special dividends as a result of high oil and gas prices. $Altria (MO.US)$, telecom giants $Verizon (VZ.US)$ and $AT&T (T.US)$, and chemical manufacturer $Dow Inc (DOW.US)$ also boast relatively large payouts of more than 5.2%.

幾家能源公司,如$先鋒自然資源 (PXD.US)$$Coterra Energy (CTRA.US)$都在榜單上,股息收益率分別為13%和10%。由於石油和天然氣價格居高不下,一些能源公司甚至支付了特別股息。$奧馳亞 (MO.US)$、電信巨頭$Verizon (VZ.US)$$AT&T (T.US)$、和化學品製造商$陶氏化學 (DOW.US)$此外,該公司的派息也相對較高,超過5.2%。

Investors say dividend-paying stocks still play an important role, even with interest income from bonds readily available. Mr. Hedrick said he favors stocks in more defensive sectors, such as healthcare, consumer staples, and property and casualty insurance.

投資者說,派息股票仍然發揮著重要作用,即使債券利息收入隨處可得。海德里克說,他青睞防禦性較強的股票,比如醫療保健、主要消費品、財產和意外傷害保險等。

I do think inflation shortens people's investment time horizons," said Lawrence Hamtil, an investment adviser at Fortune Financial Advisors who has identified tobacco investments as a hedge against inflation. In environments where prices are rising, preservation of capital becomes relatively more important to investors than long-term appreciation, a dynamic that makes dividend payers more attractive, he said.

我確實認為通脹會縮短人們的投資時間範圍,“財富金融顧問公司的投資顧問勞倫斯·哈姆蒂爾說。他認為煙草投資是一種對沖通脹的手段。他說,在價格不斷上漲的環境中,對投資者來說,保本變得相對比長期升值更重要,而長期升值使股息支付者更具吸引力。

Dividend stocks can still present risks if it becomes too expensive for companies to afford the payouts. $Intel (INTC.US)$ said last month that it would cut its dividend by 66% to save money. The semiconductor company is pursuing expensive factory expansions while it faces a short-term demand crunch. 

如果股息股票變得過於昂貴,公司無法支付股息,那麼它仍然可能帶來風險。$英特爾 (INTC.US)$該公司上月表示,將削減66%的股息以節省資金。這家半導體公司在面臨短期需求緊縮的同時,正在尋求代價高昂的工廠擴張。

In this environment, we came to the conclusion that the highest dividend payer shouldn't also be the highest capital investor," Intel CEO            Pat Gelsinger said on a conference call.

在這種環境下,我們得出的結論是,派息最高的人不應該也是最高的資本投資者,“英特爾首席執行官兼首席執行官兼首席執行官帕特·蓋爾辛格在電話會議上表示。

AT&T cut its dividend last year when it divested the WarnerMedia division. Intel stock is down 39% over the past 12 months, including dividends. AT&T shares have gained 12%.

AT&T去年剝離WarnerMedia部門時削減了股息。包括股息在內,英特爾股價在過去12個月裡下跌了39%。AT&T的股價上漲了12%。

Write to Charley Grant at charles.grant@wsj.com

寫信給Charley Grant,電子郵件:charles.grant@wsj.com

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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