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TraderPeter Male ID: 70205635
Trading options and futures in US markets
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    I mentioned last December that keeping it simple is the key to success this year. At that time, we already knew Feds would increase the rate (did not know how big of increase) and we also knew the inflation was here (did not knew how high it would be). So I proposed to short bond and long commodities. That is, long TMV, long ERX or DBC and DBA. This strategy definitely worked well so far. I did not predict that SPX and NDX would be down so much.
    Now, ...
    As I mentioned in my New Year’s resolution (https://www.moomoo.com/hans/community/feed/107554702098437?lang_code=0), keeping it simple with two obvious trends have clearly paid off. First, long commodity such as oil and copper. Second, long interest rate with shorting bond. Now, with Techology sector is in correction zone, it is about time to go long on tech!
    In 2022, inflation will stay high, rates will go up, and Nancy Pelosi will continue to trade. My goal is to grow capital, no matter whether the market is going up or down. I do not want to have a goal to beat the market or Nancy, because the market may go down or Nancy’s trades may go bad. Quantitatively, my goal is always a consistent and positive return at least better than inflation rate. Absolutely, I can achieve that and do better than that with options. Not how Nancy...
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    Whether we invest for the long term or short term, we must first adopt an infinite game (see reference below) mindset. That is, we focus on risk management first and growing money over a long period of time, rather than over-sized trades based on news, talk shows, and etc. 
    Like any game, we need to have the right strategies. First, I would like to stay in the social trend that has a long-lasting impact on how we live, work and play. Currently, we are in the 4th industrial revolution, or digital transformation era, so I choose sector ETFs or companies that are leading this trend as our investing instruments. Doing my own research to identify those sectors and companies is critical. Second, setting the time horizon to 3-5 years. This is important, because with this kind of horizon, time will be on my side, and I can deploy my strategies accordingly. For equity investment, I use the dollar average strategy to accumulate my investment. I welcome significant price reductions and use them as opportunities to add to my investment. There are many options strategies that I mentioned in my other posts, so I will skip it here. Finally, being disciplined in terms of the size of each trade, stop-loss, and profit-taking rules.
    Mistakes will be made, but the key is to prevent a disaster from a small mistake. Being in an infinite game, we simply need to always compete against ourselves, our emotions and biases, and reserve our capital to play this game as long as possible. 
    Carse, James P. (1987). Finite and Infinite Games. New York: Ballantine Books. ISBN 978-0-345-34184-6.
    My wish is to to able to trade options on MooMoo app with just simple click on the options chains and be able to construct a strategy in one single trade order! MooMoo should be to do that and provide necessary risk and P/L analysis on that order before the execution, so if I want to change, I can go back and change my strategy. If I am lucky, I would like to trade futures and options on futures on MooMoo. This will put MooMoo at the same level as players in this space. Finally, having a community focused on options would be awesome! Wish everyone a Merry Christmas and prosperous 2022!!
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    As I mentioned in my other post, since I am an options trader, I prefer taking profit earlier and often, and time is one of the most important factors in my trades. Trading options is the best way for short-term results. With options, I can use different strategies rather than only buy or sell. With options, I can leverage my capital and at the same time, control my risks if I want to.  
    To illustrate my points, I am using my recent   $Chewy(CHWY.US)$ earning trade as an example. Chewy would report its quarterly earning after the market closing yesterday. So yesterday morning, I initiated a Dec 10 55-50-45 put butterfly that costed 65c per contract, when the stock price was above 58 dollar. With one day to go until expiration, I expected that Chewy would go down towards $50. If I were wrong, my maximum loss would be 65c per contract. In order for me to reduce the cost, I also sold the Dec 17 70 Call for $1.1 credit, since I did not believe it would jump above $71 in a week, given the re-opening environment, and this was WHY I started this trade, and did not based on any technical indicators. Yes, I was shorting Chewy for one day based on its earning event! But I prefer this method rather than shorting it with stock shares, because I can accomplish the same results with very limited capital and defined risks for bigger return. The result was that $Chewy(CHWY.US)$ went down to 51 and I closed the trade with a great return. Obviously, trading on earning events is one of my favorites, but it is not the only way. I would like to listen to your feedback and comments.
    #options #strategies #reducerisk
    $ZIM Integrated Shipping(ZIM.US)$ continue to hold and buying on any dips.
    Emotions influence human decision making, especially in trading. Algorithmstic trading had already replaced human in market making activities. As a person working full-time with no time to watch market everyday, I have been following the rules and be mechanical as much as possible.
    1. Be a contrarian. When everyone is fearful, aka when VIX jumps high, I become more greedy. When everyone is greedy, aka when the market reaches All-Time high after All-time high, and VIX tanks, I become more fearful and need to find hedges. The past few days just showed us how important this is.
    2. Implied volatility rank or percental is my friend. As an option trader, I only trade when the IV is higher than its historical average. The higher the better, since IV often be overstated and makes premium selling more profitable.
    3. Size is the most important factor. The risk and the size are highly correlated. I looked the size of each trade closely and will control it to 2% of my portfolio size. I will also control my Buying Power under certain percentage of my portofolio size based on VIX level (following rule number 1).
    4. Ask Why first. Since I can only control my risk at order entry moment, I ask myself why this is the right trade and when it is not. This help me to pre-determine my profile and loss limit. Sometimes a good trade will become bad. Knowing the why helps me to make quick decision without second guess myself.
    5. Only trade something that is liquid enough. This rule not only help me to reduce any slippage in price (the gap between bit and ask), but it also help me to only trade a handful of entities, which is also my next rule.
    6. Trade something that I know well. I do not have time to do research or watch a lot of news. I focus on the main indexes and their futures such as /ES and /ZB and 3-5 stocks such as AAPL and Google. They are highly liquid with a lot of transactions and I know them well, foundationally and technically.
    7. Take profit early and often and let time cure the pain. If a trade has 25-50% profile or 20 days to expiration, I will take the money and run. I would roll any losers to next expiration and forever, unless my WHY was wrong with new data presented. Recent example is BABA. I will not touch it for a long while.
    7 plus or minus 2 is human short term memory capacity. I should stop here and hear from your suggestions, especially if you are trading options.
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