Affected by the weak U.S. May ADP employment data and ISM services PMI, concerns over a slowdown or even recession in the U.S. economy have significantly intensified, and investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve to start rate cuts this year have rapidly increased. U.S. stocks showed mixed trends on Wednesday, with the Dow ending a four-day winning streak, the S&P 500 nearly flat, while the Technology Sector performed strongly, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ rising over 3%, driving the Nasdaq to maintain its upward momentum. Chinese concept stocks performed impressively overall, with the Index rising over 2%, significantly outperforming the U.S. market.
Macroeconomic data shows increasing downward pressure on the U.S. economy. The ADP reported that only 37,000 jobs were added in May, far below the expected 150,000, marking the lowest level since March 2023. Meanwhile, the ISM services PMI fell below the neutral line of 50 to 49.4, the first contraction in nearly a year, indicating weak corporate demand and persistent cost pressures, delivering a dual blow to the services sector. Following the data release, Trump promptly called on the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately, and the market quickly raised expectations for rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book further confirms the current trend of economic slowdown. The report notes a slight decline in overall U.S. economic activity recently, weakened demand in the labor market, and increased expectations for rising business prices. Against this backdrop, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by more than 10 basis points at one point, the dollar gave back yesterday's gains, and once again approached a two-year low. Gold was supported by safe-haven demand and fluctuated higher, while Crude Oil Product experienced a short-term pullback after Saudi Arabia signaled a willingness to increase production, ...

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The Hang Seng Index opened low yesterday (0526) and rebounded almost back to the previous level, but then fell again following the A-shares. However, the U.S. index futures rose significantly yesterday, yet the Hang Seng Index ignored this rise in U.S. index futures, reflecting a sudden weakening of Hong Kong's stock market on Monday. The decline intensified in the last trading hours, closing down 318 points at 23,282 points, mainly due to $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ and $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ a sharp plunge, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ dragged down by a consistent southward trend before the earnings announcement and $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ breaking important support levels.
Today (0527), the Hang Seng Index opened lower and rebounded in the early session, with Hong Kong Exchanges (0388) reaching a new high of 399.6 yuan for the day. However, the Hang Seng Index still fell back following the A-shares, maintaining a similar short-term pattern and pace as yesterday, with two consecutive days of deterioration. From the perspective of a broader daily chart, the pattern observed last week has started to deteriorate, and after one and a half days of analysis this week, the situation resembles that of late March.
The Hang Seng Index will settle May Options and Futures this Thursday. It is estimated that the six consecutive weeks of weekly bullish candles will end this week, unless unexpected news arises; after all, analyses cannot compare to a single piece of news. Unless the future can break through the 23,600-point level, the probability of a downward turn increases. If the future Hang Seng Index loses the last critical level of 22,900 points, the chance of Hong Kong stocks reversing this upward wave will increase.
After experiencing a global mini-crisis in early April, many investors followed experts' advice to cut losses at low points, leading to a subsequent V-shaped rebound.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $HSI Futures Current Contract (HSIcurrent.HK)$ Earlier, it was mentioned that a portion of the bear certificates had not been exited with profit. It was noted that if the tariff negotiations went smoothly, there would be a chance for a sudden surge, and at that time, the bear certificates would exit first. The prediction was accurate, as it materialized that day; on the 12th, under the news, there was a rapid increase of several hundred points within 10 minutes. As a result, the bear certificates held for the Hang Seng Index (800000.HK) and Alibaba-W (09988.HK) also changed from profit to loss upon exit. Since short-term trading is usually preferred, if the situation is unfavorable, there will definitely be a stop-loss exit and then a slow observation. After the rapid increase that day, the next day it also retreated by several hundred points. It was not surprising to see this retreat, but what was unexpected was the significant rise yesterday, which quickly restored the lost ground. I actually thought there was a possibility of a rebound yesterday; however, at that time, it was believed that the rise might only be a little over 200 points. It was unexpected that the increase was stronger than anticipated, with a total rise of 532 points yesterday, closing at 23640. Currently, whether in the spot market or in the trend of Futures, it also shows a bias towards strength. It is estimated that the current 23640 will not be the peak and there may still be upward space; however, it is not recommended to chase too high all the time. Also, attention must be paid when the increase is too large or rapid, as it is normal for a pullback to occur. Yet, it is believed that even with a pullback, it may still present a buying opportunity. Generally, it is preferred to trade in the current market, approximately choosing a recovery price with a distance of about 600 to 700 points and a stock conversion ratio of 10000. Also, everyone should not use bull and bear certificates with too much street volume, because if the street volume is too much, the price will lack stability. For example, taking the bull certificate for the Hang Seng Index HSBC 79 Bull R.C (54595.HK) meets all the above conditions.