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Invest with Sarge Private ID: 73699614
NYSE floor trader for over 30 years. Day trader, long-term investor, and anything in between.
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    The news that so many people had waited so long to hear made headlines just before lunchtime on the east coast of the US on Wednesday. Equity markets, which opened on weakness in the wake of a red-hot January CPI print, moved higher, and hit their apex for the regular session about an hour later. Then, as if reality hit, that weakness seeped back into trader sentiment. Though traders and investors had bought into that early weakness, they also sold this rather moderate mid-day streng...
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    US Vice President JD Vance spoke from the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit in Paris on Tuesday. Vance said bluntly... "To safeguard America's advantage, the Trump administration will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the US with American designed and manufactured chips."
    What's interesting is that the planet's dominant semiconductor chip foundry business is Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and that Taiwan Semi has built and is building new facili...
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    We came into Tuesday morning looking for a sell-off, hoping it would be mild to moderate in nature and that was exactly what we got. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee, and sat for a few hours, fielding questions from largely (economically) under-qualified individuals. He'll go through the same dog and pony show before the House Financial Services Committee this morning where the questions tend to be even more amateurish i...
    Aside from the likely announcement of new tariffs this week there are several issues on our collective plates for this week as Monday morning gets rolling along.
    ......The Fed. Fed-speak takes center stage this week as fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on Tuesday morning before the Senate Banking Committee. On Wednesday, Powell will have to do it all over again, before the House Financial Services Committee. Fed Funds futures markets are currently pricing in a 92% probability ...
    The big game had come and passed. The result was not what too many expected. That said, maybe we should have. The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs had been helped week in and week out by obviously incorrect calls made on the field by league officiating crews. I don't think too many fans would now disagree that this Kansas City team, without distracting from that franchise's recent dynasty would not have gone 15-2 (15-1 with the starters in) during the regula...
    I honestly do not know how much we can accurately take away from the release of this morning's January employment surveys by the BLS. There are more revisions than a wildman could shake a stock at that make January very close to non-comparable to December and recent months. In fact, the BLS straight out told us that after making benchmark revisions that impacted the current release....
    On The Household Survey....
    "This year's (benchmark population) adjustment wa...
    There's no doubt that the expected executive order that will shut down the Department of Education will be controversial. It's not controversial however to say that over decades, this department has failed miserably in its mission. The controversy is over what to do about it. Reform the department? That could be like throwing good money after bad. Return oversight of education to the states? That's where the president appears to be going.
    His order will likely ...
    Winding Down Education
    Winding Down Education
    And just like That....
    All it took was one weekend. Suddenly, the "Great North American Trade War of 2025" had evolved into the "Fairly Minor Trade Skirmish of the first couple of days of February." Financial markets stumbled out of the gate on Monday, with stocks suffering deep early declines as it had appeared to all that a potentially long trade war had begun between the US and its neighbors. Then, the sun came out from behind the clouds and that early beat-dow...
    ......Well, this morning there will be a sell-off across the spectrum of US risk assets, Asian stocks were lower, followed by European equities. Now, it's our turn. That said, as ugly as it looks, it was worse last night. As for those long cryptocurrencies, this has been an especially tough weekend. Those calling for a higher US Dollar, as our own Carley Garner has been doing, have simply nailed that trade.
    .....The main event this week, outside of the political and perhaps the geop...
    ......Well, this morning there will be a sell-off across the spectrum of US risk assets, Asian stocks were lower, followed by European equities. Now, it's our turn. That said, as ugly as it looks, it was worse last night. As for those long cryptocurrencies, this has been an especially tough weekend. Those calling for a higher US Dollar, as our own Carley Garner has been doing, have simply nailed that trade.
    .....The main event this week, outside of the political and perhaps the ...