"I expect to see inflation move down more this year. Confidence in that is a bit lower given Q1 data. I expect housing service disinflation, given where market rents are, to show up in measured housing inflation data. There are substantail lags there." My take, he's still leaning in a dovish direction, but is no longer sure of himself.

"It's unlikely that the next policy move will be a hike... We don't see evidence that policy isn't restrictive. As readers know, I disagree with Powell on this point and believe that the prospect of a hike should have been hinted at here.

"Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline ot its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption on Treasury securities from $60B to $25B. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities." Readers will see above that I projected something like this for the press conferecne. I was right about the a...

Added "In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Commmittee's 2 percent inflation objective" That's likely code for (my opinion) short-term rates will remain higher for longer.

Look For a Mention, perhaps during the back and forth with the media that the central bank may feel the necessity to slow down the quantitative tightening process as the wind down of the program reaches a point along with declining overnight balances held at the Fed by the banking community where the process actually starts impacting bank reserves. This questionone would think will certainly be asked by one of the smarter members of the financial media present n...

I would think that in the statement....
"Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated" (first paragraph, last sentence) will have to become something a little stronger.
Additionally...
"The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent." (3rd paragraph, third sentence) will have to become more cautionary and overtly push out...

Nine of eleven sectors in the red with the Nasdaq Composite down 1% and the S&P 500 -0.8%. Five sectors down more than 1% with bottom four sectors all cyclicals, Typically this can signal weakness in the economy at large, as evidenced this morning by horrendous looking reports for Consumer Confidence and the Chicago PMI. This followed a negative reading for manufacturing in the Dallas Fed district for April on Monday. Dallas has now posted 24 consecutive months of each manufacturi...

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