The stock market rose in this wave, and QQQ was close to an all-time high. I don't have a major stake in technology stocks, so I think I'm out of trouble. But it doesn't matter; the stocks I hold have also risen quite well, including:
$McDonald's(MCD.US)$
$UnitedHealth(UNH.US)$
$FactSet Research Systems(FDS.US)$
$T-Mobile US(TMUS.US)$
$The Travelers Companies(TRV.US)$
With the exception of TRV above, I reduced my positions today.
Currently,$The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund(XLV.US)$ It's also pretty cheap, and I keep holding it.
With the current monetary policy and economic environment, everyone understands whether QQQ can last at such a high level. So, even as a band, I'm unwilling to participate in this kind of pursuit that is seriously detached from fundamentals.
Finally, let's talk about TLT. My bond account is back in the early 87's, and I've bought a lot many times$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ It has now clearly come out of the bottom. I was blocked at the gap today. If it falls back, I may continue to increase my position.
It's been quite busy recently, so there haven't been many updates. I actually didn't do anything, so I reduced my position until today. In addition to clearing, I have also cleared my bottom position in technology stocks. Look what's wrong in the account...

Why is the stock market soaring these days?
The Fed will not raise interest rates because the CPI has dropped.
What does this have to do with the stock market?
Because interest rates are about to be cut, valuations can be released.
Why are interest rates about to be cut?
Interest rate cuts are needed to stimulate the economy because the economy is weakening.
So will interest rates not be cut until there is a problem with the economy?
Yes, every time in recent years.
Since there is a problem with the economy, why is the stock market rising?
Isn't there a problem with this yet? Let's talk about it when it rises first.
What should I do if something really goes wrong later?
When the chives are taken over, it would be better if they were shipped and sold at a high level.
Why did chives take over?
Because chives like to keep up with the rise.
Since interest rates are about to be cut, why not buy bonds?
Idiots only play with bonds. How boring.
It's just entertainment
Anyway, with this wave of rebound, I am betting on TLT. There is no shortage of smart people in the stock market; on the contrary, it is easier for idiots to make money.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
As for the stock market, when it pulls back to around 4,300, I'll consider buying again. If you chase higher, you will never chase after it.

There are three main contributions.
1. Housing, contributed 2.34. I think this part is grossly overrated. Rents reached a peak in late spring and early summer this year. They have now begun to decline, but the data is lagging behind. I estimate that the real rent inflation is estimated to be only about 1%. If demand weakens further, housing inflation may reach zero next year.
2. Insurance, the price of this part is indeed rising steadily, but there is no way to do it right now. Families in financial difficulties have to cut other expenses, which is bad for the economy.
3. Dine out. I haven't been to many other restaurants, anyway$McDonald's(MCD.US)$ There are no more price increases. It is said that there will also be price reduction promotions in the near future.
Other aspects, either no inflation, too little weight (like tobacco), or direct deflation. Anyway, I think the inflation problem has been eliminated, but the biggest problem right now is that the stock market and housing market are too hot. If this continues, inflation will be repeated at any time. Only by continuing to maintain high interest rates and cause some problems in the economy can it be overdone. This is also a necessary means of controlling inflation. Only when the stock market and housing market all fall can inflation remain unchanged for many years.
Therefore, the recent rise in the stock market can be viewed as hype. I also have quite a few stocks on my hands, and I hope they will rise; I can just sell on high prices and take profit.
As for the increase in positions, I will wait until the market falls back to 4,300, otherwise I will not catch up higher. In terms of bonds, I still consider buying on dips$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ , see 100 first...

$Unity Software(U.US)$
This is my stock holdings, but the position is very small.
Yesterday's after-market earnings report came out, and I was shocked to see the decline. After taking a cursory look at the earnings data, I felt that I was a bit too pessimistic. I planned to buy in batches. Little by little each time, I placed an after-market order of 21.5, which was later sold. However, the expensive one I bought before has never been cut. Currently, the average cost is still around 28. The original position was 2%, the position was increased by 0.5%, and the total position was 2.5%.
Unexpectedly, the increase in violence today changed from decline to rise; during the day, it actually fluctuated by nearly 20%.
I think it's a short-rolling operation that kills options. However, the volume was so high that I decided not to sell for a while.
Today's market is really funny.
However,$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ It actually broke through to 440. If it doesn't immediately fall back next week, the trend will completely change. If I have time this weekend, I'll write a detailed post.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
Previously, a friend left a message asking me if I sold TLT at 83. Yes, I actually bought 84 and sold 83 at the time. Currently 87 has been bought back.
For example, at the beginning of the year$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ When it drops to 100, how many people dare to buy it? For example, if Tesla bought at the end of last year at the end of last year and found it was stuck in the middle of a mountainside, how many people could resist falling to 100? Stop-loss and cutting meat is not a big problem. It is even more reasonable that we didn't buy at 102 when we saw the bottom. It's not like Zhuge Liang can watch the stars。 However, after that, it bottomed out and rebounded, breaking through 125. The signs of a trend reversal were obvious. Should I buy it back at this time?
Currently I'm optimistic about tlt for a few reasons:
1. Government debt issuance has been curtailed. In particular, there has been a decline in long-term bond issuance.
2. The economy is weakening. The unemployment rate has risen, and the number of new jobs has been drastically reduced.
3. The US dollar fell below the key position (105-106) and entered a downward trend,
4. TLT broke through a key position and reached the MA5, 10, and 20 EMAs. Today, it is suitable for buying on dips. Actually, I got on my feet last Thursday, but I waited for a while.
5. Although the weakening US dollar and lower interest rates are also beneficial to the stock market, the current valuation of big technology is too high. The bad news about the economy will sooner or later be reflected in the decline in EPS, and the rise in the stock market is unsustainable. Also, I'm waiting...

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
Today's big African farmers really did not meet my expectations. Everyone knows that the statistics on the Big Fei Nong are absurd. One person has three jobs, even if there are three jobsHowever, even if this were the case, it fell far short of expectations and was directly cut in half compared to last month. It can be called a major thunderstorm. As you can imagine, behind the intense growth in US GDP, there is a huge crisis hidden.
The unemployment rate continued to rise to 3.9%.
As I mentioned before, unlike the technology industry, the traditional industry is not that profitable, but it is very important because it solves the employment of the vast majority of people. As an example,$Apple(AAPL.US)$ with$General Motors(GM.US)$ The total number of employees of the two companies is probably about the same. However, the market value of Apple is about 70 times that of GM. In other words, the same amount of capital invested in traditional industries can solve 70 times the employment problem. If something goes wrong with traditional industries, the unemployment rate will seriously soar, triggering the Great Depression.
We all know the truth; it's impossible for the Fed not to understand it. Therefore, when the Federal Reserve wants to suppress the stock market to fight inflation, it actually suppresses the valuation of big technology. But on the other hand, traditional industries must not be allowed to explode one after another. When the S&P 493 index (excluding the Big 7) falls to extreme values and faces risk, the Fed has to soften it. But the Big 7 cannot continue to bubble. This is really difficult.
Real solution...

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ - It will shoot above 250 by next week

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$
After listening to the press conference, I just thought it was a cliché. There are no hawks, and I didn't expect the market to interpret it as a big dove.
Interest rates were raised by 75 basis points just in September, which was too strong. If you wait and see this time, you would expect, ah, somewhere... However, the market is always right, just follow the trend.
I checked the bottom of last week, and I basically sold everything without waiting for the interest rate meeting because I don't want to experience this kind of uncertainty. So if you miss it, you've probably missed it. Since it went up today, I sold a little more. Mainly because SPY has now risen to the upper end of the downward channel. This is a bit beyond expectations; I think it will only rebound to around 4200-4250.
Another reason for the sale is that it will be a big African farmer in the morning. Since this year, large and small non-farmers have basically gone against each other every time, and Friday is probably no exception. However, there is no point in predicting; plans must be made:
If the number of employed people exceeds expectations, it may cause the stock price to fall. However, the economy is still strong; it is an opportunity to buy high-quality stocks on dips. Will keep an eye on TLT, but won't necessarily buy it.
If it basically meets expectations, this is the hardest to operate. There is a possibility that the stock market will continue to rebound, and it will not be fun to chase higher. I will wait and see if SPY will rebound more than the previous high. As long as S&P rises by another 2% and the band's high exceeds the previous high, this wave of bear market structure will be destroyed. It probably means the end of the three-month downward cycle.
If it falls far short of expectations, then the economy is estimated to go downhill, so I will buy TLT $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
...

I copied some between 410 and last week$SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ , positions have been reduced for the past two days, so let's just have fun. Since the psychological shadow brought about by the 75 basis point rate hike in September (the interest rate on 10-year treasury bonds soared from around 4 to 5, which is equivalent to raising interest rates at least 3 times) persists, what should happen if Lao Bao continues to make remarks tomorrow, let's keep some more cash.
The recent decline in big technology is also to be expected. With such a high 10-year interest rate, technology stocks have no incentive to rise sharply; at most, they have overfallen and rebounded. As long as interest rates remain high, it will be difficult for technology stocks to improve. Instead, many traditional blue chips have either stopped falling and stabilized, or bucked the trend and risen. The recent momentum has been good. I'm referring to these:$McDonald's(MCD.US)$ ，$UnitedHealth(UNH.US)$ ，$Procter & Gamble(PG.US)$ 。 In particular, UNH protected many of my positions. In this round of stock market decline, I only lost a little bit. MCD has also returned to its original version. Currently, the technical side is doing well.
Bank stocks were supposed to stop falling and stabilize. I bought some around 141 last week$JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ As a result, the CEO was caught off guard and hit a heavy hammer... I stopped losing money when I was on a high, and I lost 3 yuan per share Don't touch bank stocks these days.
If bank stocks do not stabilize, there will be no bull market. Still need to pay close attention$JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ and...