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xiaoniulinju小牛邻居 Male ID: 151712529
美股兴趣爱好者
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    I've recently heard a phrase I like: fluidity of thought. The ability to quickly abandon previous ideas when the world changes or when people encounter new information. There is no doubt that mental fluidity is scarce. Changing one's mind is difficult because it is easier to trick oneself into believing a lie than admitting a mistake.
    There was a time when Einstein hated claims of quantum physics.
    His own theory of physics is based on classical Newtonian physics. Newtonian physics believes that the universe operates in a pure, rational, and accurately measurable way. Quantum theory, however, believes that parts of the physical world cannot be measured. Because measuring the behavior of subatomic particles itself changes the motion of objects. When trying to measure this part of the world, the best we can do is only use probability and possibility.
    This was almost a heresy fallacy for Einstein, who also clearly let his quantum theory peers know his judgments and opinions.
    In 1927, he told a group of physicists that “one cannot derive a theory from a large number of 'possibilities'” and that God “doesn't roll the dice”
    His colleague was disappointed and said, “Einstein, how can you say that?” quantum physicist Paul Ellenfest said. He felt that this great physicist was as stubborn as those who once doubted Einstein's theory of relativity.
    A group of quantum physicists won Nobel Prizes within five years, and the scientific community recognized their contributions and verified quantum theory.
    What was not mentioned at the awards ceremony, however, was that the winning panel was nominated by Einstein himself.
    “I believe this...
    Translated
    A change of thought
    David Brooks distinguished the difference between “the merits mentioned in the life history” and the “merits mentioned in the eulogy”.
    The merits mentioned in resumes are often income, position, and house size; the merits mentioned in eulogies often refer to being helpful, caring, honest, and being remembered.
    But ironically, many people yearn for the latter, but focus all their energy on the former.
    Excerpt from Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    Translated
    About the advantages
    One of my university professors once worked for Adobe. He said that the engineers who created Photoshop didn't know how users would use every filter and tool detail in the software. They just tried to develop every imaginable way to manipulate image tools. And they believed artists and designers would discover the power of their creative tools.
    Many things work this way: their value to the world is not entirely known or predicted by their creators.
    Visa founder Dee Hock said, “A book is far more than just a part of what the author wrote; it includes everything you can imagine and add after reading it”
    Writer James Patterson (James Patterson) said, “One of the best things about reading is that when you're not reading, you can always think of things that extend from the book.”
    Mark Twain (Mark Twain) said it best, “Wagner's music is more intriguing than it sounds.”
    Excerpt from Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    Translated
    The aftersound wraps around
    Columns穷和富
    威廉范德比尔特是有史以来最富有的继承人之一.但是不要羡慕——因为他的生活一点也不快乐.
    就在 1920 年去世之前,范德比尔特告诉纽约时报“我的生活注定不会很幸福.继承的财富是幸福的真正障碍.就像可卡因会败坏道德一样会抹杀雄心壮志”
    有趣的是该话题的另一端——过度的野心——可能同样令人痛苦.
    半个世纪前马克吐温写信给威廉范德比尔特的祖父科尼利厄斯范德比尔特:
    我多么可怜你,这是真的.你年纪大了,应该休息一下,但你却不得不挣扎,否定自己,丢掉了自己的睡眠和心灵的平静,因为你太需要钱了,我同情像你这样”穷困潦倒”的人.
    别误会,范德比尔特拥有 7000 万美元.但是你我都知道一个人拥有的并不是仅仅是财富.满足一个人当下所拥有的,那才是真正的财富.
    摘译自 Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    穷和富
    身体外形魅力是每个人都能凭直觉感官看到并理解的,但难以用语言表达的东西.
    那么是什么造就了一张迷人的脸?很难描述.当你看到一个不错的例子时,你只知道这是一个.
    几项研究都试图破解这个面容的密码.我认为其中最吸引人的论调是平均值的面孔往往最吸引人.
    以 1000 人为例,让软件程序生成他们面部的平均值——一张具有平均颧骨高度、平均双眼间距、平均嘴唇丰满度等的人造脸.尤其跨文化的(混血儿)图像往往是人们最有可能被判断为最有吸引力被经常使用的图像.
    一种进化解释是,非平均特征有可能具有高于平均水平的繁殖风险.它们可能会或可能根本不会影响生殖健康,但这就像大自然在暗示说:“为什么要去冒险?追求平均水平好了”
    人们喜欢熟悉.这不仅适用于面孔,也适用于产品、职业和风格.这几乎就像大自然的风险管理系统.
    摘译自 Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    外形魅力平均值
    作者 R.L. Stine 是有史以来最畅销的作家之一.他的鸡皮疙瘩系列恐怖儿童读物已售出超过 4 亿册.
    但恐怖并不是他的第一幕. Stine 在他职业生涯的前二十年里一直在写儿童笑话书.
    他发现,吓唬人比逗他们笑更容易.
    “每个人都有不同的幽默感,但我们更是都有同样的恐惧”他说 “孩子们都害怕黑暗,害怕迷路,害怕来到一个新的地方.这些恐惧永远不会改变”
    每个人都有不同的性格和品味,但情绪——尤其是恐惧和贪婪——往往是普遍的.
    摘译自 Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    搞笑和吓唬人的比较
    一年前在 2021 年巨大的牛市之后,我指出追逐热门业绩的投资者往往会被烧死,就在上周我也描述了逃离波动的投资者可能总是不能得到他们想要的东西.
    博主 Ben Carlson 最近指出:这两篇专栏几乎相隔整整一年,就像书挡一样.它们显示了股市及股民相反的两极化,为什么低买高卖就如此困难呢?
    当您高买低卖时,您选择的是阻力最小的路径:在牛市中,买高感觉很棒.狂欢吧!但是逢高价卖出——或者只是高价不买更多——是很难做到的.感觉就像在派对上不能让人扫兴,一定要参与.生怕错过了轻松赚钱的最佳机会.
    在熊市中,低价抛售是会带来解脱(至少在短期内).与此同时,低价买入——或者甚至在其他人恐慌时保持原状——感觉就像在乱砸钱.
    买入并持有的投资常常被嘲笑为一种盲目的“一劳永逸”的方法.但别忽略了一个事实,即抵制市场极端的强大拉动需要巨大的情绪纪律性.
    设置它相对容易,忘记它才是最难的.投资行业每天都在用炒作近期表现并假装预见未来的宣传轰炸你,试图让你高买低卖.这就是为什么纪律如此重要。
    正如 AQR Capital Management 的创始人 Cliff Asness ...
    为什么低买高卖就如此困难呢?
    Actor David Cassidy's last words are “I've wasted too much time in my life”
    It's scary to realize it too late in life. As many of us spend all day aimlessly playing with our phones, this waste of time will become more common.
    Regrets are dangerous liabilities because their final costs are often hidden for years or decades. Decisions that are easy to make in the short term tend to be more costly in the long run.
    Daniel Kahneman (Daniel Kahneman) once said that to be a good investor, one important quality is an accurate perception of one's future regrets. If things aren't going as you'd expect, you need to understand and get the direction right.
    Regret is the best definition of risk.
    Risk isn't how much money you might lose. It's not even how you feel when you lose it—over time, many painful experiences become valuable lessons. The real risk is that you may regret it years or decades later.
    Jeff Bezos (Jeff Bezos) once described his decision to launch an online bookstore, Amazon in the mid-1990s: “The framework that made the decision incredibly easy was how to minimize regret. Predict yourself to be 80, then look back on your life, and minimize your regrets. When you're 80, you don't regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet; it's a very important thing when you're 80, you don't regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet.”
    “But I know the things I'll really regret are things like...
    Translated
    Risks and Regrets
    This basically dates back to 14th century Italy, when bankers did business and trade on a large bench. They called it a bench, but it looked more like a large table.
    But for all intents and purposes, they'll sit on this bench. They have tables, and in Italy they basically sit on benches around tables. You can imagine places like Venice, where all these bankers sit in the yard and they do their banking business on this bench.
    If the bankers are insolvent and they are unable to continue borrowing or making payments, then publicly state and leave in shame to let people know that he is insolvent and is unable to continue and be out of the game. That person left a half-bench is a public sign of bankruptcy.
    The Italian phrase at the time was bancar rta. It meant a bad bench. It meant bankruptcy. This is where our word bankruptcy comes from.
    Excerpt from Feb5 2023 Investor Amnesia Jamie Catherwood
    Translated
    The origin of the term bankruptcy
    Investing once won't make you rich;
    only possible with continued investment;
    Exercising once will not make you healthy;
    It is only possible if you exercise relentlessly;
    Reading it once won't make you smart;
    It is only possible if you read consistently;
    Persistent action is the key to getting everything you want.
    Excerpted from Brian Feroldi Jan 31 2023
    Translated
    Persistent action