Three key consumer electronics investment trends in 2024

1. The current stock replenishment started in May-July. After Huawei announced the Mate 60 Pro in late August, it increased component purchases due to better-than-expected demand, forcing competitors to follow suit to ensure they had enough components, thereby boosting the momentum of stock replenishment.
2. This stock replenishment will end around January 2024. It is important to note that the strong stock replenishment momentum may give the illusion of an improved demand structure. My latest view is slightly different from the market’s optimistic consensus on Android smartphone demand in 2024. I recommend investors pay attention to whether it will repeat the pattern of PC and TV, where demand did not improve after stock replenishment in 2Q23–3Q23, will be repeated.
3. The actual demand/order changes after stock replenishment will affect upstream semiconductor and AI smartphone trading sentiment of related stocks.

1. Vision Pro is the most important product for Apple for 2024.
2. Shipments in 2024 are estimated to be approximately 500,000 units. Vision Pro is currently in mass production and will begin mass shipments in the first week of January 2024. Vision Pro will most likely hit the store shelves in late January or early February based on the current mass shipment schedule.
3. If user feedback on Vision Pro is better than expected, it will help strengthen the market consensus that “Vision Pro is the next star product in consumer electronics” and the related supply chain stock price.

1. Among related vendors (operating systems, software services, brands, processors, and components), operating system vendors have the most significant impact on AI device trends from the perspective of building user awareness of AI devices, establishing user behavior, and supporting third-party developers.
2. Information related to AI devices from different vendors may benefit short-term trading sentiment, but the operating system is the core that genuinely dominates the fundamentals of the AI ​​device industry.
3. The mainstream hardware specifications of AI devices in 2024 will include built-in 7–10B LLM (for inference), 40–50 TOPS AI computing power, 10–20 token/s or more inference speed, 8–16GB or more DRAM, etc. Investment opportunities arise from the proof of the user experience created by the above mainstream specifications and the driven specification upgrades.
4. all relevant vendors are expected to focus on promoting AI PC/smartphone as a key point in their 2024 campaigns. Therefore, all electronic product exhibitions/events in 2024 are likely to have catalysts for the stock prices of AI PC/smartphone-related supply chain, including CES (January), MWC (February), WWDC (June), Computex (June), Google I/O (MAy), Apple new iPhone media event (September), IFA (September), Apple new Mac media event (4Q), Microsoft new product media event (2H), and major brands’ new product announcements, etc.