The sharp fall of the yen may trigger a currency war

If the yen continues to plummet as the yen falls to a new low, some investors begin to contemplate an almost unimaginable scenario.

The Japanese authorities' possible intervention has removed the yen from a 34-year low against the US dollar, but if Japan continues to fight alone, the impact on the exchange rate will not last long, and the yen may fall again.

Under these circumstances, it may push the competitive situation between Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. to the peak and put pressure on China, and speculations about the devaluation of the RMB have already surfaced in overseas markets.

Theoretically speaking, the sharp volatile fall of the yen could be a trigger for Japan's neighbors to take extreme actions, even if they have been trying to support the exchange rate rather than allow it to fall until now.

Although this is the opinion of only a few people, and it does not mean that the Asian financial crisis will repeat itself, under the scenario where the US dollar is once again strengthening for a long time, this view still has some support.

“We haven't heard the term competitive devaluation in a long time,” said Guo Henry (transliteration), head of global marketing for the Asia Pacific region at State Street.

However, “if the yen continues to depreciate further sharply, there may be a series of competitive depreciations.”

Although the Asian Central Bank is actively supporting the local currency exchange rate, the decline in the yen was the worst in the region, reducing the export competitiveness of Japan's immediate neighbors.

Even if the reason for the yen's decline is not entirely within Japan's control, such as huge interest rate spreads between Japan and the rest of the world and investors' preference for US assets, it will still cause discomfort.

When asked about competitive currency depreciation, Manulife Investment Management's senior portfolio manager Paik Ji-soo (transliteration) said that whether intentional or unintentional depreciation, this is happening and is having an impact on other countries in the region.