Will the "ignored" usa inflation be the black swan of the fourth quarter?

The Middle East conflict may lead to a surge in oil prices, as well as the wage growth in non-farm data, all indicating that the usa's "inflation is not dead".

wallstreetcnOct 5 22:31 ET

Non-farm strong? Wall Street still has doubts: there is expected to be a big adjustment in October, and the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December.

Citigroup believes that seasonal adjustments may have magnified the September data, and it is the lower quit rate rather than strong hiring that is driving up the employment figures. The current trend of weakening labor demand in the United States has not been broken, and future employment data will undergo more drastic revisions, eventually prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in December.

wallstreetcnOct 5 02:51 ET

Non-farm data triggers a significant cooling of rate cut expectations, Nomura: Powell's huge influence will reduce the extent of subsequent rate cuts.

Nomura Securities International analyst Aichi Aemiya stated that the Federal Reserve may reduce the rate cut to 25 basis points at the policy meetings in November and December.

Zhitong FinanceOct 4 23:59 ET

Wall Street tycoon Adri: Employment data dampens rate cut enthusiasm, the Federal Reserve will pause monetary easing in 2024.

Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni said that given the strong job report released on Friday highlights the resilience of the economy in the USA, the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy for 2024 may have already ended.

Zhitong FinanceOct 4 21:16 ET

The U.S. non-farm payroll data is too hot, Summers called the Fed's aggressive rate cut last month a mistake.

1. The CBOT's "Fed Watch" tool shows that after the report was released, the market expects a 99.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November; 2. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers posted that the Fed's "50 basis point rate cut in September" was a mistake.

cls.cnOct 4 15:54 ET

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Do not overly rely on single-month data will not change the long-term trend of interest rate cuts.

Goolsbee said that the September non-farm employment data was very impressive, but he also warned against overly relying on single-month data, which will not change the trend of interest rate cuts in the next 12 to 18 months. He added that inflation may be below the Fed's 2% target, and this risk exists.

wallstreetcnOct 4 13:23 ET