Premium Learn weekly review: Will the US stock market turn to nagtive after Black Thursday?

The highly anticipated September interest rate decision was announced on Wednesday, with the benchmark interest rate held steady at its highest point in 22 years, between 5.25% and 5.50%, meeting market expectations.

However, the dot plot unexpectedly leaned towards a hawkish stance, suggesting another rate hike this year, a halving of rate cuts next year to two, and an increase in expected rates for 2025 and beyond. The long cycle of high interest rates exceeded current market expectations and was interpreted as negative by the market.

In addition, last week's initial jobless claims data, which fell by 20,000 compared to the previous week, hit a new low and reinforced the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain high interest rates.

After the data was released, the benchmark ten-year US Treasury bond yield, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing", accelerated its upward trend, hitting a new high since 2007, surpassing the previous two-day high. The more interest-sensitive two-year US bond yields also rose briefly, risk aversion increased, US stocks declined, and global stocks suffered a "Black Thursday."

Looking ahead, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, warned that auto worker strikes, government shutdowns, and the recovery of student loan payments could disrupt hopes of a soft landing for the US economy.

Analysts pointed out that "market trend signals will begin to turn negative" as investors need more time to digest rate hike expectations and many risk events, so investors need to be cautious about investment risks.

After seeing mixed performances from the three newly listed companies this month, Vietnamese internet startup VNG has decided to postpone its planned US IPO.

Some experts suggest that recent IPO performances have been mediocre, and if the US stock market experiences a pullback, investors can buy at a discount, there is no reason to buy in and hold during the volatile period.

The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis primarily to identify overbought and oversold levels. As an oscillation indicator, the CCI appears below the price chart as a line that mostly fluctuates within the -100 to +100 range. Generally speaking, values exceeding +100 suggest overbought conditions, while values below -100 indicate oversold conditions. Common three strategy:

➤ Overbought and Oversold Signals: When the CCI falls back below +100 from the overbought zone, it may indicate a potential sell signal as the stock price could experience a short-term pullback. On the other hand, when the CCI rises above -100 from the oversold zone, it may indicate a potential buy signal as the stock price could rebound in the short term.

➤ Divergence Signals of CCI Indicator: A bearish divergence is a signal for a market top, while a bullish divergence is a signal for a bearish market outlook.

➤ Application of CCI in Conjunction with Trend Lines: Increases accuracy of judgment; when the trend is bullish, pay attention to potential bullish signals from CCI, and when the trend is bearish, pay attention to potential bearish signals from CCI.