This week's financial results and economic calendar (5/27-5/31) will the NVIDIA one-man win market continue? Expectations for strong buy-in for domestic semiconductor-related stocks
A heavy upward trend in Japanese stocks is expected this week. While US NVIDIA's financial results, which had been attracting attention, are lacking in new materials, concerns that US inflation will not calm down and interest rate cuts will be far away cool down investor sentiment. From key economic indicatorsDevelopments to search for clues relating to the future of US monetary policyIt looks like it's going to happen. Mr. Taiki Takei of Resona Holdings believes that the range market will continue until around summer, when financial results for the April-6 fiscal year are made one after another. “Since there were many companies that announced conservative forecasts for the current fiscal year in the current financial results, it is difficult to keep up with the stock price increase. Among them, people are beginning to be aware of the decline in interest rate cut observations in the United States,” and it is said that stock prices tend to move unnecessarily even after next week.
As financial results announcements go round and roundMarket interest is once again shifting towards Japan-US monetary policy. Expectations for early interest rate cuts receded in response to an increase in the US PMI last week, and the outlook for inflation, the economy, and monetary policy was once again shaken,This week is a week to check the level of confidence that rice interest rates will be loweredIt's going to be. It will be announced on the 31stThe announcement of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for April in the US is the most important eventIt becomes. The strength of the core price index was shown in March, and concerns about upward pressure on prices intensified.Attention is drawn to whether PCE can confirm the calm in inflation. It is an inflation index that the Fed places importance on in deciding the direction of policy, and investors are preparing for weekend announcementsWait-and-see attitudeIt is easy to strengthen, and depending on the results, there is a possibility that it will lead to large market fluctuations. In addition, since the US Regional Federal Reserve Economic Report (Beige Book) is about to be announced on the 29th and the Chicago Purchasing Department Association Business Index for May on the 31st,The mood of watching patterns that want to determine these results intensifiesI think so.
This week's dollar-yen exchange rate was set against the backdrop of a retreat in interest rate cut observations by the US Federal ReserveAttention is being paid to whether dollar purchases will continue. At the Bank of Japan International Conference scheduled for the 27thRemarks by Governor Ueda and Vice President Uchida on monetary policyis attracting attention, and whether there are any comments on monetary policy in preparation for the June meeting is a point. It is said that there is a possibility that the dollar/yen will temporarily fluctuate. Also, the April unemployment rate/effective job offer ratio, and the May Tokyo Metropolitan Consumer Price Index (CPI), etc. are scheduled for the 31st. If the results of the Tokyo Metropolitan Consumer Price Index (CPI) core in May are strong, there is a possibility that yen will be bought from speculations of additional monetary policy revisions by the Bank of Japan.
Currently, it seems that the upper price of the dollar and yen will gradually become heavier in the 157 yen range, but if there is an opportunity such as the US PCE core price index, it is possible that the 158 yen range is also possible. There is no change in the situation where yen with low interest rates is easy to sell, but the fact that it is easy to buy dollars for actual demand in the last week of the month is also expected to be supported. Meanwhile, although there is a sense of caution against yen buying intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, US Treasury Secretary Yellen's statement that “exchange intervention should be a means rarely used, and it is necessary to issue sufficient warnings when going through intervention” seems to support the dollar-yen exchange rate.
1. The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in 2 weeks, and the NVIDIA Festival did not continue
2. Long-term interest rates reach 1.005% for the first time in 12 years, attracting interest in bank stocks
3. NVIDIA, the strongest in the “universe,” has a series of surprises with financial results! The all-time high price hit, how long will the momentum continue?
4. Major US banks raise their S&P 500 target stock prices one after another! Good financial results led by NVIDIA and the US economy
5. Reduction in holdings of hedge funds and large technology stocks! The share weight of semiconductor stocks soared to a record high of 6.5%
6. Ether has skyrocketed! With the approval of the Ethereum ETF, there is also a possibility of a 60% increase!? Related stocks have risen 62% since May
7. The summary of the FOMC agenda mentions interest rate hikes “long” until interest rate cuts
The Nikkei Average fell to 38,646.11 yen in the Tokyo stock market last week, 141.27 yen (0.36%) lower than the previous weekend, for the first time in 2 weeks. The yield on new 10-year government bonds, which are indicators of long-term interest rates, temporarily rose to 1.005% on the 24th,Record a high level for the first time in about 12 years since 2012/4I did it. It was in response to expectations for the Bank of Japan to normalize monetary policy and the trend of rising long-term US interest rates. Long-term interest rates reached the 1% mark on the 22nd,The “world with interest rates” has become a reality. Since rising interest rates contribute to the expansion of bank loan interest rates and an increase in management profits, $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group(8306.JP$、 $Resona Holdings(8308.JP$、 $Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group(8316.JP$、 $Mizuho Financial Group(8411.JP$Attention is drawn to megabanks such as.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$The financial results announced on the 22nd once again surpassed market expectations, and the content suggested a further boom in semiconductors supporting the AI boom. In addition to strong sales forecasts that greatly exceeded consensus, quarterly dividends were increased by more than 2 times, and a stock split of 10 shares per share was also announced. If you look at past stock split trends, NVIDIA said that between the announcement of the stock split and the official stock split,There is a possibility of a strong rise (up to 67%). The company's stock on the 23rdA sharp rise of 12%Then,New all-time highI did it. Second place among US companies $Apple(AAPL.US$The difference has also narrowed. The view is that sales will slow down with the introduction of new semiconductor products for AIDispelled at financial results briefingWhat I did is huge. CEO Jenson Hwang explained that even as profit contributions for next-generation semiconductors begin, demand for current main products will not be interrupted. In response to good performance, major banks on Wall StreetNVIDIA's target stock price has been raised one after another, the most bullishTarget share price is 1400 dollarsIt has also reached
However, NVIDIA's sharp rise on the 23rd did not spread to other stocks,The “NVIDIA effect” did not last. The Dow average is over $600 cheapFirst decline in 1 year and 3 monthsRecord it. On that day, the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for MayHigh level for the first time in over 2 years since 2022/4Then, concerns about high prices were rekindled. Even at the Tokyo Market on the 24thNVIDIA effects did not last. Semiconductor-related stocks led the decline. $Lasertec(6920.JP$Ya $Advantest(6857.JP$、 $Tokyo Electron(8035.JP$Such asThe decline in semiconductor stocks is conspicuous. Takada Masanari of JPMorgan SecuritiesNVIDIA's strength encourages sales to other brands and industries, and it concentrates on NVIDIA stocksHe pointed out that there were not a few investors. There may also be benefits for Japanese semiconductor-related companies,It's difficult to buy with the same standards as NVIDIAIt was said.
Meanwhile, the major banks on Wall Street last weekWe are in a hurry to revise the S&P 500 target stock price upward. What is JP Morgan's trading deskNVIDIA's good financial results and the strength of the US economyAgainst this backdrop, I see that there is room for further growth in the S&P 500 Index. NVIDIA accounts for about a quarter of the increase in the S&P 500 this year. Although the pace is slowing down, it is anticipated that the index will continue to rise. Furthermore, what is the estimated S&P 500 value of Wilson of Morgan S, one of Wall Street's most famous bearish theorists5400It is expected that the highest value will be updated. BMO's Brian Belski's year-end goals for the S&P 5005600Raised to among major investment bankstallest。
What are hedge fundsReduce holdings in large technology stocksOn the other hand,A wide range of companies can benefit from the AI boomI'm betting on it. According to the report dated 21st, the hedge fund was NVIDIA in the first quarter $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$、 $Amazon(AMZN.US$、 $Microsoft(MSFT.US$、 $Meta Platforms(META.US$While the position of has been reduced, $Apple(AAPL.US$It is said that their positions have increased. Nevertheless, $Tesla(TSLA.US$The biggest technology companies remain the most popular long positions among hedge funds. In the first quarter, semiconductor manufacturer's $Marvell Technology(MRVL.US$and the electric power company's $The AES Corp(AES.US$As such, the popularity of AI infrastructure-related brands has increased the most. According to the same report, the share of semiconductor stocks in the long portfolios of US hedge fundsIt surged to a record high of 6.5% in the first quarterI did it. Hedge funds are increasingly focusing on investment opportunities in the field of artificial intelligence,Actively invest in every stage of the AI industry chainIt is being carried out.
Bitcoin and Ethereum rose overall on the 20th due to market speculation that the US SEC's opposition to Ethereum ETFs might be mitigated, and related stocks also rose drastically. Then, on the 23rd, the US SEC approved the introduction of a physical ETF linked to Ethereum. With this approval,The way for Ether spot ETFs to be listed and traded on the stock exchange has been paved. Ethereum this weekA sharp rise of nearly 20%I did it. As for QCP Capital, Ethereum will be approved in the next few months due to the approval of the Ethereum ETFPotential to rise up to 60%Predicted that there will be. Bitcoin soared from 42,000 dollars to over 73,000 dollars in 2 weeks after ETF approval. Since May, virtual currency-related stocks have shown a strong rise, $MicroStrategy(MSTR.US$Is60% or more、 $Marathon Digital(MARA.US$Isclose to 50%、 $Coinbase(COIN.US$Ya $Riot Platforms(RIOT.US$IsApproximately 10% increaseDoing it.
In the FOMC minutes published on the 22nd, they agreed on the view that “maintaining policy interest rates at a high level for a longer period of time is desirable,” and it became clear that various participants are positive about additional tightening if necessary. Negative opinions on interest rate hikes were expressed at Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference after the previous FOMC, but compared to those, it seems that the impression that they are slightly hawkish has spread.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, Investing, Traders Web, Reuters, Nihon Keizai Shimbun
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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TomShonan : No push when buying a push.
パーフェクトマン : The financial results were announced and I was expecting it, but it went down
Will it be okay from tomorrow? Just expectations?
カレー党 : I wonder what to do
Depending on the Gouros stock company, the decline stops for 1 month, then it goes up and down a little, then it goes up and down a little
Bad situation where corporate investors are earning pocket money (weak individual investors are devoured)
However, wait
What comes up in detail up and down?