Following speeches by several Fed governors earlier in the w...
Following speeches by several Fed governors earlier in the week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give his views on the nation's economic outlook at a luncheon at the Economic Club of New York. The meeting is scheduled for October 19 at 12:00 PM EDT / October 20 at 12:00 AM SGT / October 20 at 3:00 AM AEST. This is just before the start of the U.S. central bank's blackout period, which begins ahead of its next interest-rate decision.
Powell will deliver prepared remarks and respond to questions from a moderator at the midday event in New York, according to the senior Fed officials' weekly event schedule updated each Thursday.
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razo2 : JP speech summary:
compassionate Orangu : A fed meeting at 3am?
Kevin Travers : Opening RemarksShareOctober 19, 2023
Chair Jerome H. Powell
At the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York
Before our discussion, I will take a few minutes to discuss recent economic data and the outlook for monetary policy.
Recent Economic DataIncoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both of our dual mandate goals—maximum employment and stable prices.
InflationBy the time the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates in March 2022, it was clear that restoring price stability would require both the unwinding of pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand, and also restrictive monetary policy to cool strong demand and give supply time to catch up. These forces are now working together to bring inflation down.
After peaking at 7.1 percent in June 2022, 12-month headline PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation is estimated at 3.5 percent through September.1 Core PCE inflation, which omits the volatile food and energy components, provides a better indicator of where inflation is heading. Twelve-month core PCE inflation peaked at 5.6 percent in February 2022 and is estimated at 3.7 percent through September.
Inflation readings turned lower over the summer, a very favorable development. The September inflation data continued the downward trend but were somewhat less encouraging. Shorter-term measures of core inflation over the most recent three and six months are now running below 3 percent. But these shorter-term measures are often volatile. In any case, inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters. While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2 percent......