Everything You Need to Know on Monday: Crude Oil Prices Slide as Market Watches Geopolitical Events in Middle East

Good morning mooers! Here are things you need to know about today's market:

● S&P/TSX 60 Index Standard Futures are trading at 1,334.40, up 0.38%.

● Alberta's population growth is breaking records, but signs of strain are showing

● Experts predict tax hikes in budget as Trudeau government stretches to pay for its promises

● Global natural gas prices pare gains after rising last week amid geopolitical tensions

● Crude oil prices slide as Iran's attack on Israel already previously priced in, sees limited damage

Today, the Canadian dollar is trading at 72.78 cents US, a slight increase from Friday.

The S&P/TSX 60 Index Standard Futures (SXF) are currently trading at 1,334.40, which is up 0.38% from the previous close.

In 2023, the western province saw its population surge by 202,324 residents to 4.8 million, according to Statistics Canada.

That's the largest annual increase in Alberta's history, the equivalent of 550 people moving to the province every day. While the bulk of the growth came from international migration, reflecting a Canada-wide trend, Alberta also shattered a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration with a net gain of 55,107 people, the highest ever recorded by any province.

Most of these interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia. Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, for example, versus just 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario.

Alberta has always been a place with periods of sudden, dramatic population growth. The province's oil and gas-based economy has attracted waves of job-seekers during historical times of high commodity prices and busy oilpatch activity.

Economists and experts say they're expecting the federal government to raise taxes in Tuesday's budget to help offset billions of dollars in new spending already promised in the pre-budget announcements that have been landing almost daily since the end of March.

Those announcements add up to more than $38 billion in commitments over a number of years. Because $17 billion of those commitments involve loan-based programs, about $21 billion could hit the government's bottom line directly.

And that figure doesn't include other new budget measures that haven't yet been announced.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has said the deficit will not increase in this year's budget. Canada's economy has so far avoided recession, but growth is still slow. That leaves the government with no option but to increase revenues to pay for new spending while keeping the deficit steady.

Global natural gas prices rose amid escalating geopolitical tensions but Iran's attack on Israel is unlikely to have an immediate impact on gas supply, ANZ Bank said in a Monday note.

European benchmark Title Transfer Facility gas prices gained 15% last week but pared gains early Monday and edged lower by 1% to 30.44 euros per megawatt-hour at last look.

Markets remain on edge amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine, which could impact European custoemrs' desire to store natural gas in the country, the bank noted.

Crude oil prices fell early Monday even after Iran's attack on Israel on prior expectations it will occur and risk premiums had already been priced in.

Brent crude fell 1.1% to US$89.47 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 1.2% to US$84.64/b at last look early Monday. The Israeli government also said the attack caused limited damage, Reuters reported Monday.

The attack marks an escalation in geopolitical tensions that is likely to raise concerns of a possible disruption to supply, but the extent of the risk will likely be determined by the Israeli government's reaction, ANZ Bank said in a Monday note.

Source: BNN Bloomberg, Financial Post, MT Newswire