China’s economy still holds tremendous potential to deliver not only growth but QUALITY GROWTH in the coming years
China’s GDP of $18.5T is where US was in 2016. To put it into context, the US econ has grown to $25.4T since then for a CAGR of 5.3%. Very impressive but considering $5T in stimulus money without which growth would have been 1.3% if not less.
China is growing at 5.4% without the benefit of $5T in extra spending out of thin air. That growth is understandably questionable to some given the state of China’s RE and manufacturing sectors.
But looking at China M2 growth of almost 10% last year vs. 10-yr range of 8.1% to 13.8% tells us that GDP growth data is realistic. Matched with weak CPI and strong HH savings growth tells me Chinese are still making money but choosing to save instead of spend.
Car sales overall exceeding 30M for the first time lends to the argument in favor of a growing economy. That’s 2X the size of the US auto market on less than 1/3 the per capita income on a PPP basis.
Despite all this, I’m still in the camp hoping for stronger stimulus in the form of spending on infrastructure (to assist China’s $4.3T construction sector) and consumer vouchers directed at retail establishments that need the most help.
With so much money being poured into high tech industry, including semiconductors, EVs, and AI, China’s economy still holds tremendous potential to deliver not only growth but QUALITY GROWTH in the coming years.
$iShares MSCI China ETF(MCHI.US$ $Invesco China Technology ETF(CQQQ.US$ $Global X MSCI China Real Estate ETF(CHIR.US$ $Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF(CHIQ.US$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB.US$ $BIDU-SW(09888.HK$ $Baidu(BIDU.US$ $TENCENT(00700.HK$ $Tencent(TCEHY.US$ $Alibaba(BABA.US$ $BABA-SW(09988.HK$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $BYD Company Limited(002594.SZ$ $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK$ $NIO Inc(NIO.US$ $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG$ $NIO-SW(09866.HK$ $XPeng(XPEV.US$ $XPENG-W(09868.HK$
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Tadaafinance :
reliable Chipmunk_56 : I am with you!
102650458 : It will take at least 5 years for China to consume huge real estate debt and local debt crises. Now China is facing a bigger financial crisis than the US in '08, and there is no help from other countries
101821182 : Can you stop blowing
三和巴菲特 : There won't be any significant growth in the next few years until I come to power