Additional Information you should know prior to Tesla Q4 Earnings Release
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ I posted an article about the Tesla Q4 earnings preview recently; you can read here:
Here is additional information that you should know prior to the earnings release:
1) Unusual option activity - bullish or bearish?
If we look at the expiry date options 01/26/24, 02/02/24 and 02/09/24, the volatility smile (also known as Volatile slew) chart showed a "smile" indicating the price movement is uncertain. The strike price range between 20 to 400 though higher volume was traded below the current price.
Source:
You can view volatility smile analysis chart using Moomoo app
2) Jim Cramer's prediction
Jim Cramer just went on the air and said that Tesla will be the first to fall in 2024. You can usually expect the opposite to happen of what he says - congratulations to all Tesla investors, this should be a banner year.
Source:
3) Cathie Wood latest analysis about Tesla
The combination of Tesla's rising EV production, industry-leading battery technology, and the potential of autonomous driving results in an estimated share price of $2,000 by 2027 in Wood's base case. Given Tesla's current share price, Wood is calling for a nearly 800% increase within the next few years.
Source:
4) Wedbush maintains a buy rating
Ives kept his outperform rating and $350 price target as he thinks that Musk and the board will resolve the issue over the next 3 to 6 months.
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5) Yahoo Finance latest post (19 Jan) about Tesla's earnings preview
Wall Street analysts forecast that Tesla (TSLA) will report quarterly earnings of $0.74 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year decline of 37.8%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $25.94 billion, exhibiting an increase of 6.7% compared to the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.5% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.5% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.
Other 12 key metrics
While it's common for investors to rely on consensus earnings and revenue estimates for assessing how the business may have performed during the quarter, exploring analysts' forecasts for key metrics can yield valuable insights. In light of this perspective, let's dive into the average estimates of certain Tesla metrics that are commonly tracked and forecasted by Wall Street analysts.
> It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenues- Energy generation and storage' will reach $1.65 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +26.2% from the prior-year quarter.
>The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Revenues- Services and other' of $2.17 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +27.6% year over year.
>The consensus among analysts is that 'Revenues- Automotive regulatory credits' will reach $446.89 million. The estimate suggests a change of -4.3% year over year.
>Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Revenues- Automotive leasing' should arrive at $556.10 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -7.2%.
>Analysts forecast 'Total Automotive Revenue' to reach $21.46 billion. The estimate points to a change of +0.7% from the year-ago quarter.
>The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Total vehicle deliveries' will likely reach 488,625. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 405,278.
>Analysts expect 'Model S/X deliveries' to come in at 20,124. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 17,147.
>The consensus estimate for 'Model 3/Y deliveries' stands at 465,800. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 388,131 in the same quarter of the previous year.
>Analysts predict that the 'Solar deployed' will reach 80.13 MW. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 100 MW in the same quarter of the previous year.
>According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Storage deployed' should come in at 4,120.87 MWh. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 2,462 MWh.
>Analysts' assessment points toward 'Gross profit- Total Automotive' reaching $4.13 billion. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $5.52 billion.
>The average prediction of analysts places 'Gross profit- Energy generation and storage segment' at $411.01 million. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $159 million in the same quarter of the previous year.
Source:
Exploring Analyst Estimates for Tesla (TSLA) Q4 Earnings, Beyond Revenue and EPS - Yahoo Finance
> It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenues- Energy generation and storage' will reach $1.65 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +26.2% from the prior-year quarter.
>The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Revenues- Services and other' of $2.17 billion. The estimate suggests a change of +27.6% year over year.
>The consensus among analysts is that 'Revenues- Automotive regulatory credits' will reach $446.89 million. The estimate suggests a change of -4.3% year over year.
>Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Revenues- Automotive leasing' should arrive at $556.10 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -7.2%.
>Analysts forecast 'Total Automotive Revenue' to reach $21.46 billion. The estimate points to a change of +0.7% from the year-ago quarter.
>The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Total vehicle deliveries' will likely reach 488,625. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 405,278.
>Analysts expect 'Model S/X deliveries' to come in at 20,124. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 17,147.
>The consensus estimate for 'Model 3/Y deliveries' stands at 465,800. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 388,131 in the same quarter of the previous year.
>Analysts predict that the 'Solar deployed' will reach 80.13 MW. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 100 MW in the same quarter of the previous year.
>According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Storage deployed' should come in at 4,120.87 MWh. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 2,462 MWh.
>Analysts' assessment points toward 'Gross profit- Total Automotive' reaching $4.13 billion. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $5.52 billion.
>The average prediction of analysts places 'Gross profit- Energy generation and storage segment' at $411.01 million. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $159 million in the same quarter of the previous year.
Source:
Exploring Analyst Estimates for Tesla (TSLA) Q4 Earnings, Beyond Revenue and EPS - Yahoo Finance
6) Bottom line
When reading Tesla Q4 earnings, you need to have a growth mindset to avoid emotional trading like panic selling. Don't just look at the headline or what the media (or someone) wants you to see or hear. It's a good practice to question the source of information and ignore personal opinion especially those who regularly give negative bias comments about Tesla (confirmation bias). Lastly read articles on both sides - positive and negative and make a final decision after due diligence before you decide to sell or hold the share.
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I reflected trading experiences by writing journals. My comments are for educational purposes not financial advice.
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Pr3car1ous : You should actually do some research on Cathy....
And Jim Bones is sometimes accurate! Yes, 90% of the time bet against him, but there were several occasions last year he was spot on
ZnWCOP Pr3car1ous: I bring out Cathie Wood's article because her view is often misunderstood. You should also read more about her Tesla's share prediction in 2020. As for Jim Cramer, you should do more research about him. I advise you to read analyst ratings on both sides - bullish and bearish.
73557019 ZnWCOP: Nice