4Q23 MacBook supply chain shipments decline significantly by 25–35% YoY; be cautious for AI stocks that are key MacBook suppliers

1. Conclusion: When AI stocks desperately need solid revenues and earnings to boost current trading sentiment, those that are also key MacBook suppliers may need to be closely monitored to see if recent AI server revenues can offset the significant decline in MacBook sales.
2. Demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air dropped significantly after the back-to-school (BTS) period, with shipment forecasts revised downward by about 20% or more this year.
3. MacBook shipments are expected to decline by approximately 30% YoY to about 17 million units in 2023.
4. There are no new products in 4Q23, and MacBook shipment momentum will be significantly lower than in past peak seasons. The key to no new products is that Apple needs to clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies for 2024.
5. Current challenges for the MacBook include declining work-from-home (WFH) demand and the potential waning consumer appeal of Apple’s silicon and mini-LED.
6. Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024, but it remains to be seen whether this strategy will be effective.
7. The ASP of assembly and key components for the MacBook is significantly higher than that of general Windows notebooks (by more than three times), which significantly impacts the revenues and profits of key MacBook suppliers.