“Strong semiconductor stocks have fallen” what are candidate stocks to buy? NVIDIA & others
From the beginning of the yearSemiconductor stocks that were doing wellOn April 4Major adjustmentsI did it. The adjustments this time areThere has been no change in fundamentals surrounding the semiconductor industry,principallyIt is largely due to external factorsIt's conceivable.The recovery in semiconductor market conditions and the benefits of the generative AI boom are expected to continueBecause,When making adjustments, it's an opportunity to buy spectacularlyLet's be This timeList up candidate stocks to buyI did it.
Of the major US stock indicesYear-to-date gain/fall rateIf you check (same as below until 4/4),The S&P 500 Index rose 8%Whereas I didThe Nasdaq 100 Index rose 6%I did it. At first glance, tech stocks seem to pale in comparison to the market as a whole. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Price Index, which consists of semiconductor stocks, which are one corner of tech stocks (SOX index) rose 14%I did it.What is the SOX index due to the AI boomIt rose by 65% in 2023,Stay strong in 2024It looks like it did.
On 4/4, the SOX index fell 3.0%. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively.
4/4'sDecline factorsThe following 3 points are mainly mentioned.
1) Concerns surrounding the situation in the Middle East(In response to heightened tension between Israel and Iran)
2) Senior Fed officials say there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will not be implemented this year
3) Inflation concerns in response to high crude oil prices
Regarding 2),Who said “there is also a possibility that interest rate cuts will not be implemented this year”This is President Kashkari of the U.S. Minneapolis Fed. The same personOriginally the “hawk faction”It is known asYou won't have the right to vote in the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) this year. Therefore,What is the risk aversion sale on 4/4, of the aboveRather than either one of them being strong、due to a combination of 1) 2) 3)Seemingly. OrishimoEmployment statistics for the next 4/5has been refrained,Investors get nervous easily。
1) Concerns surrounding the situation in the Middle East(In response to heightened tension between Israel and Iran)
2) Senior Fed officials say there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will not be implemented this year
3) Inflation concerns in response to high crude oil prices
Regarding 2),Who said “there is also a possibility that interest rate cuts will not be implemented this year”This is President Kashkari of the U.S. Minneapolis Fed. The same personOriginally the “hawk faction”It is known asYou won't have the right to vote in the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) this year. Therefore,What is the risk aversion sale on 4/4, of the aboveRather than either one of them being strong、due to a combination of 1) 2) 3)Seemingly. OrishimoEmployment statistics for the next 4/5has been refrained,Investors get nervous easily。
From major indicesThe rate of decline in the SOX index is largerIs the SOX index'sBecause the year-to-date rate of increase is the highest, and it is easy to be pushed by profit-taking salesIt is conceivable. Regarding the SOX index,There is also a possibility that there were some concerns about the impact of the earthquake in Taiwan。
Furthermore, it is the world's largest semiconductor contract manufacturing (foundry) company $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$(TSMC) explained the recovery status as follows on 4/4 (night, Asia time).
★ TSMC statement on the effects of the earthquake (4/4 night)
・As of 4/4, the restoration rate of the entire factory has reached 80% or more.
・The new factory is expected to reach full restoration late at night on 4/4.
・A small number of tools have been damaged at some facilities, and operations have been partially affected.
・There is no damage to our important equipment, including all extreme ultraviolet lithography devices.
・It is expected that some production lines in areas more affected by the earthquake will take some time until complete restoration.
・The new factory is expected to reach full restoration late at night on 4/4.
・A small number of tools have been damaged at some facilities, and operations have been partially affected.
・There is no damage to our important equipment, including all extreme ultraviolet lithography devices.
・It is expected that some production lines in areas more affected by the earthquake will take some time until complete restoration.
Based on the above,The impact of the earthquake on TSMC production and semiconductor supply chain is limitedSeemably.
Like Taiwan, semiconductors have become an important industryIn South Korea, semiconductor exports in March increased 35.7% year over yearIt was 11.7 billion dollars.The highest level since 2022/3 on a monthly basisThen, it was shown that semiconductor market conditions were recovering.
The recovery in semiconductor market conditions has led to improvements in corporate performance. On April 5,Samsung ElectronicsButJanuary to March termProvisional financial results have been announced. According to that, operating profit increased drastically, and it is expected that it will turn from a decline in operating profit for 6 consecutive quarters to an increase in profit. According to the Korea Times, market participants are Samsung Electronics'The semiconductor division may have turned into a surplus for the first time in 5 quartersI anticipate that there will be one.
Samsung Electronics is not the only company whose business performance has recovered in response to improvements in semiconductor market conditions. The largest semiconductor memory company in the US $Micron Technology(MU.US$ isAchieved an operating surplus in the December to February fiscal year, one quarter earlier than consensusI did it.
At the financial results presentation on March 20, Micron TechnologyGuidance that exceeds market expectations on sales and earnings per share for the March-May fiscal yearI showed it. The CEO of the companyThe industry will recover in 2024 and record sales are expected in 2025It was shown.
At the financial results presentation on March 20, the CEO of Micron Technology expressed the view that his company would be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the business opportunities brought about by AI.
The memory industry will benefit from AI investmentsIt'sData centers for AISo in order to process large amounts of data at onceHigh-spec memory (HBM) is requiredit's for. In this field, South Korea's SK Hynix has the top market share, followed by Samsung Electronics.
The thirdMicron Technology's market share is lowIn order to seize business opportunities, the companyIntroduced HBM productsI did, and “HBM3E” in February this yearStart mass productionI did it. This productWill be included in NVIDIA's new productsthat's it. Note,NVIDIA plans to procure products from Samsung ElectronicsIt has been reported that they are doing it. The recent strong stock prices of Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology are also due in large part to expectations of benefits from generative AI.
Recommended buy candidate stocks were extracted under the following conditions using Bloomberg data.
1) Components of the SOX Index
2) Year-to-date stock price gain/fall rate > 0%
(Because while the SOX index has risen, it is thought that stocks that have depreciated in reverse may have some reason for the decline)
2) Year-to-date stock price gain/fall rate > 0%
(Because while the SOX index has risen, it is thought that stocks that have depreciated in reverse may have some reason for the decline)
Stocks with good earnings forecastsRegarding this, considering that financial results announcements will soon begin, this time we focused on stocks that have been revised upward for sales and EPS for the current quarter, and set conditions of 3) 4) 5).
3) Revision rate of forecast sales for the current quarter > 0% or more
4) Revision rate of EPS forecast for the current quarter > 0% or more
5) You have cleared the conditions of 3) and 4) at the same time
4) Revision rate of EPS forecast for the current quarter > 0% or more
5) You have cleared the conditions of 3) and 4) at the same time
To the above conditionsThe applicable stocks are as followsIt became.
What do the 5 stocks have in commonFirst, it can be mentioned that they are the largest players in their respective fields of expertise.
★The largest semiconductor memory company in the USof $Micron Technology(MU.US$
★The world's largest AI semiconductor companyof $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
★The largest foundry in the worldof $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$
★The world's largest advanced lithography equipmentof $ASML Holding(ASML.US$
★The world's largest smartphone semiconductorof $Qualcomm(QCOM.US$
Second common pointisBeing able to benefit from the recovery in semiconductor market conditions and investments related to generative AIThey can be mentioned.Generative AI is bringing about major changes in the world, and is a major technological innovation leading to improvements in corporate efficiency and productivityIt has become. Even in terms of the scale of capital investment of major tech companiesGenerative AI is likely to become a long-lived boomIt is conceivable. Therefore, thatStocks that can be expected to benefitAs forA strong buying stance when market prices are adjustedI think it would be better to take it.
★The largest semiconductor memory company in the USof $Micron Technology(MU.US$
★The world's largest AI semiconductor companyof $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
★The largest foundry in the worldof $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$
★The world's largest advanced lithography equipmentof $ASML Holding(ASML.US$
★The world's largest smartphone semiconductorof $Qualcomm(QCOM.US$
Second common pointisBeing able to benefit from the recovery in semiconductor market conditions and investments related to generative AIThey can be mentioned.Generative AI is bringing about major changes in the world, and is a major technological innovation leading to improvements in corporate efficiency and productivityIt has become. Even in terms of the scale of capital investment of major tech companiesGenerative AI is likely to become a long-lived boomIt is conceivable. Therefore, thatStocks that can be expected to benefitAs forA strong buying stance when market prices are adjustedI think it would be better to take it.
Created April 5, 2024 Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various materials
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various materials
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Roxi_117 : Information on the adjustment phenomenon for the first week of April
Reason ①
Rebalance from the end of Q to the beginning of Q
https://youtu.be/GpE8HnSWdig?si=_ZDfm3l-DSGqh9_2
Reason ②
Geopolitical Headlines and Risks
(Prime Minister Netanyahu's remarks)
https://www.youtube.com/live/5MT1J8hocpU?si=arlMaAXJdJjbELwC
Reason ③
Zero DTE option
There was a notification within Moomoo that there was an abnormal call option transaction with some high-risk/high-growth stocks.
こーちやん : Are you buying Tokyo Electron?