Iron Ore and A-share Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report
Overall
• The iron ore supply side showed a marked decline after the mid-year surge ended. The amount of 45 port iron ore arriving at the port continued to increase under the influence of strong shipments in the early stages, and is expected to weaken in the later stages.
• The decline in iron water this week reflects the characteristics of the off-season, but demand resilience is still strong. Iron ore stocks have been clearly removed from storage, and have fallen to an absolute low level during the year, and the plant still maintains low inventory operations.
• The iron ore supply side showed a marked decline after the mid-year surge ended. The amount of 45 port iron ore arriving at the port continued to increase under the influence of strong shipments in the early stages, and is expected to weaken in the later stages.
• The decline in iron water this week reflects the characteristics of the off-season, but demand resilience is still strong. Iron ore stocks have been clearly removed from storage, and have fallen to an absolute low level during the year, and the plant still maintains low inventory operations.
On the supply side
• Global shipments were 2.83 million tons, down 19.2% from last week, of which Australia shipped 17.35 million tons, down 15.8% from last week, Brazil shipped 6.97 million tons, down 21.2% month-on-month, and 3.7 million tons from non-mainstream shipments, down 27.3% from the previous week.
• Total global shipments declined slightly; subsequent iron ore shipments will remain high due to the weakening impact of bad weather.
• Global shipments were 2.83 million tons, down 19.2% from last week, of which Australia shipped 17.35 million tons, down 15.8% from last week, Brazil shipped 6.97 million tons, down 21.2% month-on-month, and 3.7 million tons from non-mainstream shipments, down 27.3% from the previous week.
• Total global shipments declined slightly; subsequent iron ore shipments will remain high due to the weakening impact of bad weather.
On the demand side
• The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, up 7.35 percentage points from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 91.20%, down 0.91 percentage points from the previous month, up 7.19 percentage points from the previous year; the profit rate of steel mills was 64.07%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous year, up 50.22 percentage points from the previous year; the average daily iron and fishery production was 2,44,400 tons, up 181,200 tons from the previous year.
• Steel mill profitability maintained, iron and water production declined slightly, Shugang's growth rate slowed, and the price gap between high and low prices declined. Steel mills maintain low inventories of iron ore.
• The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, up 7.35 percentage points from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 91.20%, down 0.91 percentage points from the previous month, up 7.19 percentage points from the previous year; the profit rate of steel mills was 64.07%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous year, up 50.22 percentage points from the previous year; the average daily iron and fishery production was 2,44,400 tons, up 181,200 tons from the previous year.
• Steel mill profitability maintained, iron and water production declined slightly, Shugang's growth rate slowed, and the price gap between high and low prices declined. Steel mills maintain low inventories of iron ore.
In terms of inventory
• The country's 45 ports imported iron ore stocks were 124.95 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons over the previous year; the average daily dredging volume was 3.16 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons.
• In terms of weight, 55.89 million tons of Australian mines decreased by 33.16 million tons, Brazilian mines by 43.69 million tons by 500,000 tons; trade mines increased 77.6 million tons by 560,000 tons, 6.18 million tons of pellets by 330,000 tons, 10.85 million tons of fine powder by 9.59 million tons, and 15.67 million tons of block mines increased by 70,000 tons.
• The country's 45 ports imported iron ore stocks were 124.95 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons over the previous year; the average daily dredging volume was 3.16 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons.
• In terms of weight, 55.89 million tons of Australian mines decreased by 33.16 million tons, Brazilian mines by 43.69 million tons by 500,000 tons; trade mines increased 77.6 million tons by 560,000 tons, 6.18 million tons of pellets by 330,000 tons, 10.85 million tons of fine powder by 9.59 million tons, and 15.67 million tons of block mines increased by 70,000 tons.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The overall popularity of transactions in the market continues to decline, with the popularity of transactions in the automotive, media, consumer services, communications and other sectors at a relatively high level.
2. All A's 23/24 net profit forecasts continued to be lowered.
3. Liangrong activity declined somewhat and was still at a low level during the year. Positions of active equity funds continued to pick up. Proxy variables showed that the public continued to purchase funds on a net basis as a whole, but the scale marginal slowed.
4. The overall buying consensus in the market continued to pick up slightly last week, and was relatively high in the telecommunications and pharmaceutical sectors.
5. On the one hand, there is a clear backflow from the northbound distribution market, and it is mainly concentrated in sectors such as communications, home appliances, new energy industry chains, finance, electronics, construction, etc.; on the other hand, the northbound trading market is still the main force in the return of the northbound market, while the activity of the two is still low during the year, which means that transactional capital may still repeatedly interfere with the market.
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
1. The likelihood that the US will fall into recession within the next 12 months will be further reduced from 25% to 20%. This is still slightly higher than the unconditional average probability of 15% after the war (a recession occurs roughly every seven years), but far below the 54% median of forecasters in the Wall Street Journal's latest survey (down from 61% three months ago). The main reason for the interest rate cut is that recent data has strengthened our confidence that lowering inflation to an acceptable level does not require a recession.
2. US economic activity remained flexible. GDP grew by 2.3% in the second quarter, consumer confidence rebounded sharply from a slump level, and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.56% in June. The number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits reversed the recent slight peak. We do expect some deceleration over the next few quarters, mainly due to a continuous slowdown in real personal disposable income growth (particularly after adjusting for the resumption of student debt payments in October) and a drag from declining bank loans. However, the easing of financial conditions, the rebound in the real estate market, and the continued boom in factory construction all indicate that the US economy will continue to grow, even though the growth rate is below the trend level.
The increase in the consumer price index (CPI) excluding food and energy in March was the lowest since February 2021, following a reading of 0.4% in 2023. But that doesn't mean this is just a month's worth of good news, as inflation, such as the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which measures fundamentals, have been easing for some time. Furthermore, there are good fundamental reasons to expect inflation to continue. Due to the increase in automobile production and inventories, used car prices are falling, rent inflation still has a long way to go to catch up with the information on median rents, the labor market continues to rebalance, and employment continues to decline. Job vacancies, resignations, reported labor shortages, and nominal wage growth.
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3047 is a team specializing in the research of commodities and smart beta. We like to exchange investment strategies.
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