2023 Half-Year Recap: Community, Stocks, and the Market
Whenever significant market events unfold or stock prices undergo remarkable fluctuations, the community becomes a buzzing hive of activity, with users eagerly expressing their viewpoints. The list showcases a wide range of stocks that elicit both admiration and frustration among mooers. So, let's take a look at the tickers that captured the most interest in 2023!
Halfway through 2023, time seems to have slipped by unnoticed. Reflecting on the predictions made by famous institutions earlier in the year, it was widely anticipated that the stock market would experience a period of decline followed by a subsequent rise, given the backdrop of a deceleration in interest rate hikes. Remarkably, reality has closely mirrored these projections, albeit with an unexpected twist: a swift and vigorous rebound.
Attempting to capture the comprehensive picture of this year's market trends through mere words is no easy task. So, let's embark on a captivating journey through a timeline, revisiting the big events that have shaped the stock market during the first half of 2023.
Jan 6 +2.28%
Getting off to a strong start with job reports
Getting off to a strong start with job reports
After the employment report showed a slowdown in wage gains in December, the S&P 500 rose by 2.3%. This report raised hopes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes were starting to have the desired effect on the economy. As a result, the Fed might consider reducing interest rates after having tightened them significantly to combat high inflation.
Feb 1 +1.05%
The unexpected twist: First interest rate hike in 2023
The unexpected twist: First interest rate hike in 2023
On February 1, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point. This marked the eighth increase in less than a year as the central bank continued its efforts to curb inflation. The rate hike was the smallest since last March, indicating a shift to a more cautious approach by policymakers after rapidly raising borrowing costs throughout the previous year.
Feb 14 -0.03%
Cooling down, but not too much: CPI release
Cooling down, but not too much: CPI release
On February 14, the January CPI inflation rate was announced. The data revealed a 0.5% rise in prices for various goods and services in January, resulting in an annual gain of 6.4%, slightly lower than December's 6.5% rate. Although the number exceeded some expectations, the overall trend in YoY inflation remained downward. The stock market remained stable in the days following the CPI release as investors closely monitored the Federal Reserve's actions, cautious about the possibility of more aggressive interest rate increases.
Feb 21 -2.00%
Fear spreads: S&P 500 slides on rate hike concerns
Fear spreads: S&P 500 slides on rate hike concerns
On February 21, the US stock market experienced its worst day in two months. Investor fears grew that the Fed might need to continue raising interest rates to combat inflation, especially after major retailers warned about the impact of rising prices on consumer behavior. The S&P 500 fell 2.00%, closing at 3,997.34, marking its most significant decline since December 15, when it dropped 2.5%. All sectors experienced losses, with consumer discretionary stocks recording the largest decline of 3.3%.
Mar 9 -1.85%
The second-strike: Bank turmoil
The second-strike: Bank turmoil
Investors continued to worry after Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that interest rate hikes were likely to be higher than previously anticipated. Another crisis loomed as Silicon Valley Bank was forced to sell off its securities to avoid bankruptcy. This led to a decline in the bank sector, dragging the S&P 500 index down by 4.55% by the end of the week.
Mar 13 -0.15%
Chain reaction: Major decline on treasury yields
Chain reaction: Major decline on treasury yields
Following the banking turmoil, investors flocked to US government bonds, causing a sharp decline in Treasury yields. The yield on the 2-year Treasury dropped approximately 100 basis points, the most significant three-day decline since October 22, 1987.
Mar 29 +1.42%
Tech stocks come to the rescue
Tech stocks come to the rescue
Toward the end of March, financial regulators and other lenders stepped in to address the fallout from the banking crisis. This renewed investors' appetite for risk, leading to increased buying activity in technology stocks. Tech giants, including the FAANG names, as well as chip and semiconductor companies, saw substantial gains and propelled the market upward. The S&P 500 recorded a 3.48% advance for the week, with gains in four out of five trading sessions.
Apr 27 +1.96%
It's all about anticipations: Strong financial reports
It's all about anticipations: Strong financial reports
Wall Street received a boost on April 27 as the S&P 500 index rose by nearly 2%. The market was lifted by strong earnings results from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet. By that time, more than half of the companies on the S&P 500 had reported their financial results, and nearly 80% of them had exceeded expectations, according to data provider FactSet.
Jun 1 +0.99%
Hidden danger resolved: Debt ceiling raised
Hidden danger resolved: Debt ceiling raised
On June 1, the House passed a bipartisan bill to suspend the debt ceiling. Despite vocal opposition from conservative and liberal lawmakers, this development brought the country one step closer to avoiding a potentially catastrophic default. It eliminated one of the potential negative news items that investors had been closely monitoring and removed a significant obstacle in the market.
Jun 09 +0.11%
Welcome back to bull market
On June 9, the S&P 500 rallied, ending the day in a bull market. This marked a 20% surge since its most recent low point reached on October 12, 2022, and signaled the end of the bear market that had begun in January 2022.
Since the beginning of the year until now, the stock market's performance has surpassed all expectations. Will this upward trend go on in the second half of the year, challenging the historic peak reached in January 2022? Or will investors' concerns about the looming specter of an economic downturn continue to intensify? Let's hang out together in the commoonity and see how it all plays out!
Since the beginning of the year until now, the stock market's performance has surpassed all expectations. Will this upward trend go on in the second half of the year, challenging the historic peak reached in January 2022? Or will investors' concerns about the looming specter of an economic downturn continue to intensify? Let's hang out together in the commoonity and see how it all plays out!
Are there any other noteworthy things from the first half of 2023 that you believe deserve mention?
What things worth expecting or be be cautious of as we approach the second half of the year?
Share your insights in the comments section, and participants who provide comprehensive responses will get 77 points! (The event will end at Jul 31, 23:59 ET)
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151161196 : Nice Summary
Kopikarp : As we approach the second half of the year, there are several things to keep in mind.
First, Jerome Powell has indicated that there could be at least two more interest rate hikes, which may be higher than previously anticipated. This is likely to have significant effects on the economy and the stock market. Higher interest rates typically mean that borrowing costs go up. This can dampen business investment and slow down economic growth. As interest rates rise, it also becomes more expensive for companies to service their debt, which can impact their profitability and, in turn, their stock prices. The anticipation of these interest rate hikes has already started to cause concern among investors.
Second, Janet Yellen has suggested that more bank mergers may be necessary as the industry navigates through a crisis. This can be interpreted as an indication that some banks may not be able to withstand the challenges posed by the rising interest rate environment. Mergers can sometimes be a way for struggling banks to shore up their resources and improve their stability. However, they can also be a sign of weakness in the banking sector. The possibility of more bank mergers (or a nice way to say failures caused by rising interest rates) could add to the economic uncertainty and could potentially affect the stability of the financial system. This is something that investors and market observers should definitely be cautious about.
In conclusion, the potential for further interest rate hikes and increased bank mergers are both significant factors to consider as we move into the second half of the year. These events can have wide-ranging impacts on various sectors of the economy and the stock market, and it's important for investors to keep an eye on these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.
決然的凱特 : Interest rates are about to be cut
Issac teh : Are the trends positive for the second half of the year?
ZnWC : Are there any other noteworthy things from the first half of 2023 that you believe deserve mention?
I think we all agree that inflation is the sticky problem that affect everyone globally in H1 2023. However not all countries use the same method to curb inflation - US and China the 2 largest economies in the world are using opposite policy.
US FED has raised interest rate since last year Mar (0.25) to this year May (5.25) but CPI is still at 4% high. The agreessive rate hike caused several US banks to collapse or merge. US government introduce Inflation Relief Act (IRA) to curb the monster but the result is yet to be seen. IRA is a complex tax relief program to reduce cost of living and tackle climate crisis.
China Central Bank started to reduce rate last year Nov and the latest reduction was last month. The government announced several stimulus package to revive the economy slow down. China is facing possible recession and the danger of stagnation similar to that of Japan in the last decade.
US FED has paused rate increase in June but hinted more hike ahead if inflation remains high. Whichever policy (restriction or relaxation) works will determine the economy will emerge stronger in next year. As retail investor, I invest in several regions to diversify my risk.
What things worth expecting or be cautious of as we approach the second half of the year?
I used Fundamental Analysis (FA) to determine an effective portfolio and Technical Analysis (TA) to justify the price trends. There are no best strategy hence a good combination seems to work for me. Hence having a suitable brokerage is very important to me - Moomoo provides several good features that meet my requirements. As I learned more about TA, it is important to know the limitations and also used more than one indicators and justify with macro factors. If use appropriately, FA and TA can help to avoid emotional trading (fear and greed).
ZnWC : I've written a post about my half-year recap in using Moomoo. Here is the link to my post:
Half -Year Recap: Why I choose Moomoo?
Ant_yeh : Continue DCA into broad market index fund - simple plan