Is a bull market really coming?
The possibilities are huge.
$Invesco Exchange Traded Fd Tr S&P 500 Equal Weight Etf(RSP.US$ with $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ It was a good day today. Keep on rushing, and we'll be able to break through the pressure at a little bit.
It means that the market has widened and is underestimated, and there are also people who are looking to the bottom. After that, though $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ It is likely that these AI concepts will continue to rise, but those that are seriously underestimated may increase even more.
For now, we will continue to focus on small-cap stocks and market breadth to see if there are any opportunities.
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ , breaking through resistance, ending a bear market for over a year, and officially starting an upward trend. I'm afraid the previous low will not be seen until at least next year, or 2025-2027, when the global economy may fall into the Great Depression, or if Sino-US relations encounter major problems. China helped Lao Ma return to the richest man. China is really a blessing for Musk.
Why is the economy so bad that a bull market is coming? The reason is not important; being able to make money is the most important
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为富图系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。㊗️大家越来越🐮
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高贵的阿德莱德OP : If iwm and rsp don't rush up and fall, then they'll have to keep walking bears
mubbiiee : The boss made another serious mistake. He doesn't want to raise interest rates anymore. Not raising interest rates in June; adding in July is basically an excuse. With assets flying like this, inflation is hard to keep under control. In the end, data pressure may be forced to remain high or continue to increase. Now that the real economy has declined, the price of goose assets continues to expand, and the typical vicious slump is on the rise. Coupled with weak debt ceiling negotiations, the government continues to spend a lot of money, which is another inflationary factor. Looking back, there is a serious slump; the government is spending a lot of money, issuing a lot of debt, and real interest rates are rising. Is there going to be a hard landing?
mubbiiee : Now the US government is adding 2+ trillion dollars of debt every year, and hot money is 4-5 trillion dollars. Sooner or later, it will absorb all of it. It's hard to imagine that real interest rates won't rise sharply. Now the mainstream says TLT will rise sharply; 100 is an iron bottom. I doubt it.
高贵的阿德莱德OP mubbiiee: Yes, I also think that if we continue like this, the problems will get deeper and deeper; if we don't do it right 2025-2026, the Great Depression will begin. However, for Lao Bao, as long as inflation continues to decline even at a very rapid pace, there is no major economic collapse, and it will last until retirement, even if his merits are complete
高贵的阿德莱德OP mubbiiee: However, in the short term, much of the hot money is in the IMF. Once it enters the stock market, it will push it up quite a bit, even up to 4,800 points. If I completely miss this wave of growth, it's also a bit of a shame; I'll still participate with some money. If you do TLT, you can also wait until the stock market rebounds before talking about it.
However, as a hegemonic country, the US doesn't need to be good on its own; it's enough just to be better than other countries, so it's fine for everyone to be worse. Currently, as long as the Chinese economy doesn't work, the US is fine by contrast. Therefore, the rise in US stocks is more or less related to the weakness of the Chinese economy. I don't know how much of the domestic release of water has reached the US stock market
mubbiiee : Yes, TLT will have to wait until it sees the cost of capital rise to the Federal Reserve, making it difficult for the government to bear it before it falls to the bottom. Currently, US stocks do not measure China's recession; the Chinese recession will seriously affect the profit margins of US stocks. For example, Apple, Tesla's share in China is very high. Second, there was no denominated interest rate hike; real interest rates rose. The farther this wave goes, the more dangerous it becomes.
高贵的阿德莱德OP mubbiiee: I'm not sure how long the Tesla wave will rise; I think Apple is almost at its peak anyway. As for TLT, there's no need to look too deep into the decline. Unless violent interest rate hikes are started again and 50 is added at least once, even if 25 is added two or three times each time, TLT will not reach a new low level. Recently, I didn't add or decrease my TLT position, so I just sold PUT and CALL to earn a small amount of money