Current market views
In terms of fundamentals, the core logic that currently affects market trends is that for eagle sauce, inflation must be able to see a downward trend, thus ending the tide cycle of a strong dollar. At home, not to mention a rebound in real estate, at least, it must have bottomed out.
The reason is that a bunch of technology growth stocks in US stocks need a low interest rate environment that can burn money to the fullest. At the same time, it also provides room for high valuation, which is beneficial to growth stocks, so the overall market trend of US stocks is extremely sensitive to interest rates. However, if you look at the current trend of the big split between the Dow and NASDAQ, the last time it appeared was around 2000. This is actually an effect of interest rate hikes.
However, the interest rate hike process actually had little impact; it only suppressed liquidity valuations, and continued high yields after the interest rate hike was only uncomfortable for listed US stock companies; it was a substantial effect of lag. Therefore, the sharp decline in the NASDAQ this year is only killing valuations; it is estimated that the first half of next year will kill fundamentals due to declining performance.
Therefore, I personally feel that US stocks have finally caught up and plummeted once. Currently, the Dow is actually a dead end in the market when it comes to the Fed's shift to expectations. However, the market did not clearly understand that once the Fed changed, it meant that the decline in substantive fundamentals had been hammered. It is likely that interest rates will be cut while at the same time the market will continue to decline under pessimistic expectations.
As for A-shares, they are too dependent on the real estate chain due to market industry distribution issues. However, if real estate doesn't work, the real estate sector itself is a weighted stock, and it will perform very poorly with all the fundamentals from upstream finance to downstream building materials, household appliances, home improvement, etc., and many of these are weighted stocks.
However, if the market wants to strengthen, there must be a fundamental logic sector with high certainty in the medium to long term, and it must also be a large sector. Consumer stocks, cyclical stocks, domestic housing stocks, semiconductors, new energy, etc. that have been structured in recent years have actually all been driven by fundamentals until now.
However, in the current market pattern, there is clearly a lack of varieties that can use fundamental logic to drive market sentiment in the medium to long term, so sector rotation is like electric fans. 50 weights are even more fateful; all of them are wandering money in the market to use themed pulses to cut leeks. Essentially, it is impossible to fix long-term liquidity using fundamental expectations. The overall focus of the market is only 3,600 -> 3400 -> 3100, and this continues to decline.
Specifically, when it comes to trading, I personally feel that A-shares will have to endure slowly. Don't think that 50 and 300 have dropped more than that; they are at the bottom for a long time. Think about Maotai 1500 and Ning Wang 400. These two ranks are at the top of the weekly and monthly ranks, and once they fall, they will suppress the teams in their respective sectors in terms of valuation and liquidity. Some time ago, the market had already learned about the power of Maotai's guillotine, and racetrack stocks blindly stalled every day.
So you think the broad base has dropped a lot; it's quite low; it's not necessarily that it will continue to fall; to be broad-based, you still have to look at the momentum of the constituent stocks. Therefore, I personally only thought of these two weeks as an overfall and rebound. The previous column had an article dedicated to retrading the previous cycle of 50, saying that the reversal must allow the market to come out on its own and confirm it many times.
However, deducing from this, the best entry point for the future is that by the middle of next year, or even the second half of the year, the fundamentals will gradually become clear. It is best if the Mao Index and the Ning Index both fall, and the market has paid off the structural bull debt before nurturing the next bull market cycle.
Finally, there is that sentence. Retail investors must rely on a bull market to make money, even if it's a structured bull market.
In this kind of bear market where the index fluctuates and sinks, the market is full of old fritters with millefeuille rolls playing, and is rolling more and more. The characteristic is that the rebound is getting weaker and weaker, and the switching is getting faster and faster. Probabilistically speaking, it is basically difficult to make a profit $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF(TQQQ.US$
The reason is that a bunch of technology growth stocks in US stocks need a low interest rate environment that can burn money to the fullest. At the same time, it also provides room for high valuation, which is beneficial to growth stocks, so the overall market trend of US stocks is extremely sensitive to interest rates. However, if you look at the current trend of the big split between the Dow and NASDAQ, the last time it appeared was around 2000. This is actually an effect of interest rate hikes.
However, the interest rate hike process actually had little impact; it only suppressed liquidity valuations, and continued high yields after the interest rate hike was only uncomfortable for listed US stock companies; it was a substantial effect of lag. Therefore, the sharp decline in the NASDAQ this year is only killing valuations; it is estimated that the first half of next year will kill fundamentals due to declining performance.
Therefore, I personally feel that US stocks have finally caught up and plummeted once. Currently, the Dow is actually a dead end in the market when it comes to the Fed's shift to expectations. However, the market did not clearly understand that once the Fed changed, it meant that the decline in substantive fundamentals had been hammered. It is likely that interest rates will be cut while at the same time the market will continue to decline under pessimistic expectations.
As for A-shares, they are too dependent on the real estate chain due to market industry distribution issues. However, if real estate doesn't work, the real estate sector itself is a weighted stock, and it will perform very poorly with all the fundamentals from upstream finance to downstream building materials, household appliances, home improvement, etc., and many of these are weighted stocks.
However, if the market wants to strengthen, there must be a fundamental logic sector with high certainty in the medium to long term, and it must also be a large sector. Consumer stocks, cyclical stocks, domestic housing stocks, semiconductors, new energy, etc. that have been structured in recent years have actually all been driven by fundamentals until now.
However, in the current market pattern, there is clearly a lack of varieties that can use fundamental logic to drive market sentiment in the medium to long term, so sector rotation is like electric fans. 50 weights are even more fateful; all of them are wandering money in the market to use themed pulses to cut leeks. Essentially, it is impossible to fix long-term liquidity using fundamental expectations. The overall focus of the market is only 3,600 -> 3400 -> 3100, and this continues to decline.
Specifically, when it comes to trading, I personally feel that A-shares will have to endure slowly. Don't think that 50 and 300 have dropped more than that; they are at the bottom for a long time. Think about Maotai 1500 and Ning Wang 400. These two ranks are at the top of the weekly and monthly ranks, and once they fall, they will suppress the teams in their respective sectors in terms of valuation and liquidity. Some time ago, the market had already learned about the power of Maotai's guillotine, and racetrack stocks blindly stalled every day.
So you think the broad base has dropped a lot; it's quite low; it's not necessarily that it will continue to fall; to be broad-based, you still have to look at the momentum of the constituent stocks. Therefore, I personally only thought of these two weeks as an overfall and rebound. The previous column had an article dedicated to retrading the previous cycle of 50, saying that the reversal must allow the market to come out on its own and confirm it many times.
However, deducing from this, the best entry point for the future is that by the middle of next year, or even the second half of the year, the fundamentals will gradually become clear. It is best if the Mao Index and the Ning Index both fall, and the market has paid off the structural bull debt before nurturing the next bull market cycle.
Finally, there is that sentence. Retail investors must rely on a bull market to make money, even if it's a structured bull market.
In this kind of bear market where the index fluctuates and sinks, the market is full of old fritters with millefeuille rolls playing, and is rolling more and more. The characteristic is that the rebound is getting weaker and weaker, and the switching is getting faster and faster. Probabilistically speaking, it is basically difficult to make a profit $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF(TQQQ.US$
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