You still need to have your own ability to independently analyze information
After reading yesterday's conference, I watched the US dollar index and various financial products jumping up and down, and watching the various gods in the comments section laughed and cried. As an old guy who has caught up with two wealth distribution cycles for more than 20 years, being content with wealth is all about investing based on hobbies. Some things are just self-talk and just chatting; it's not in my area of consideration to satisfy everyone's appetite.
First of all, the US financial industry is not one-size-fits-all, and Wall Street doesn't have only one voice; every major investment bank has its own goals; this market is a real game where you die and die. The interests faced by the FED are not that simple, let alone draw a line between technical genres, and don't talk about fasting with this group of old foxes. They are all schemers. Wall Street's current internal conflict is a contradiction between the new chaebol, the new “stock leader” (opinion leader), and the old “stock god”. The new chaebol (represented by Musk), the new stock god (Mu Sister) wants US stocks to rise, while the old chaebol (Luo family, Ma family ah) and old stock gods (Buffett and even Soros) want the hegemony of the US dollar every day. The bottom line is that the US dollar is money and wealth in the eyes of people around the world. What exactly is the ultimate task of the FED? As a private institution (the FED is not a government agency, the central bank is not a government department; they are a privately controlled institution), what the FED wants to guarantee is that the US dollar is a currency in the world, a money, a tool for measuring wealth, and a tool for controlling the flow of wealth. To quote Emperor Pu, if the US dollar doesn't exist, what's the point of keeping US stocks. The voice of the new forces is based on stock market valuations. The trader represented by Sister Mu Tou is ultimately operating with other people's money. These forces are not allowed to or withstand the fall of the stock market. The market clears up, and the bubble bursts, because once it happens, their right to speak disappears, let alone them. Let's not talk about them. What kind of influence has the power to say something half-old and new in American society. The power of power to say is not only whether you have money, but whether your money can withstand the cycle of operation., the currency of the current outbreak Everyone knows what scale the stock market takes off at 9,000 points, and the old forces that have experienced many rounds of wealth have comfortably sold over 14,000 chips for a year. They want less than 9,000, or even less, less than 7,000 points, or even lower bloody chips (mainly the NASDAQ index), which is the most subjective contradiction in the US that the FED's interest strategy must face (of course, there are many other contradictions, let's stop there) As for the international contradictions the FED wants to face, let's stop there. It was deleted before it was posted.
Second, does it really matter how much interest rate hikes are?! To be honest, whether the interest rate hike stopped at 4.5% or even 5% or even 6% actually had that much impact on the financial market, it actually didn't hurt that much. For the pricing of financial products, adding 6% to stay for 3 months is not as damaging as 4.5% interest for a year. Let's just use gold as an explanation. When the US dollar index was 100, gold was at around 1000 for about two years. Why was the US dollar index 110+? Using the pricing mechanism of UBS's gold investment analysis model, even considering the influence of currency overspending, the current price of gold should be around 1,300. Why has gold withstood the trend of precious metals such as gold, commodities, and US stocks have not emerged from the trend of a one-sided decline in US bonds due to interest rate hikes? Interest income from fixed bank deposits, let alone a commodity with no interest return such as gold. If you buy physical gold and keep it for 100 years, it won't increase. It's because the FED interest rate is lower than the CPI, and the market is still in a dream where the FED raises interest rates by 4%, and your CPI is still above 8%. The market feels that this return is negative. If you want to beat the current market, you need to invest. This is why all kinds of products are still being supported. All kinds of media and public opinion, regardless of whether they are positive or unfavorable, can be used as a driving force for the rise. What else are they afraid to say. Holding cash in an inflationary environment won't hurt you; instead, the anti-inflationary actions you make will reduce your wealth. So don't worry about how much interest rate hikes, ah, slow down the rate hike. The key is when the FED cuts interest rates and how long the high interest rates will last, and the decline in CPI is the main driving force for future pricing declines.
The macro cycle is a cycle of several years. How will the script be written for the next few months or even a year. Generally speaking, after a sharp drop, after killing idle funds and funds from outside the US, then there is no interest rate hike by 3 yards, then interest rate hikes are moderated, then the wave continues to be locked in. After that, there is no interest rate hike by 2 yards; it continues to rise again, then lock in another wave, then keep interest rates unchanged, then raise and then kill again. However, the problem is that due to last year's base period factors, the CPI will definitely take a turn this month, and it will drop quite a bit next month. Once the FED interest rate is raised to around 5% in the first half of next year, and once the CPI falls below 5%, when the difference between the two is corrected, the dream of negative interest rates in the market will awaken. At that time, precious metals, commodities, stock markets, and even real estate set prices... That's really interesting. So in the next few months, don't be fooled by the CPI decline as good news (of course, market makers use this public opinion to push up prices). If you're not a large-scale investor and don't have enough capital, go ahead and take it no matter how long it is good. Don't die too much; I've seen too many scrupulous investors who clearly went in the right direction and lost money. Pay attention to your own leverage risk, and I hope everyone can make a fortune in this round.
First of all, the US financial industry is not one-size-fits-all, and Wall Street doesn't have only one voice; every major investment bank has its own goals; this market is a real game where you die and die. The interests faced by the FED are not that simple, let alone draw a line between technical genres, and don't talk about fasting with this group of old foxes. They are all schemers. Wall Street's current internal conflict is a contradiction between the new chaebol, the new “stock leader” (opinion leader), and the old “stock god”. The new chaebol (represented by Musk), the new stock god (Mu Sister) wants US stocks to rise, while the old chaebol (Luo family, Ma family ah) and old stock gods (Buffett and even Soros) want the hegemony of the US dollar every day. The bottom line is that the US dollar is money and wealth in the eyes of people around the world. What exactly is the ultimate task of the FED? As a private institution (the FED is not a government agency, the central bank is not a government department; they are a privately controlled institution), what the FED wants to guarantee is that the US dollar is a currency in the world, a money, a tool for measuring wealth, and a tool for controlling the flow of wealth. To quote Emperor Pu, if the US dollar doesn't exist, what's the point of keeping US stocks. The voice of the new forces is based on stock market valuations. The trader represented by Sister Mu Tou is ultimately operating with other people's money. These forces are not allowed to or withstand the fall of the stock market. The market clears up, and the bubble bursts, because once it happens, their right to speak disappears, let alone them. Let's not talk about them. What kind of influence has the power to say something half-old and new in American society. The power of power to say is not only whether you have money, but whether your money can withstand the cycle of operation., the currency of the current outbreak Everyone knows what scale the stock market takes off at 9,000 points, and the old forces that have experienced many rounds of wealth have comfortably sold over 14,000 chips for a year. They want less than 9,000, or even less, less than 7,000 points, or even lower bloody chips (mainly the NASDAQ index), which is the most subjective contradiction in the US that the FED's interest strategy must face (of course, there are many other contradictions, let's stop there) As for the international contradictions the FED wants to face, let's stop there. It was deleted before it was posted.
Second, does it really matter how much interest rate hikes are?! To be honest, whether the interest rate hike stopped at 4.5% or even 5% or even 6% actually had that much impact on the financial market, it actually didn't hurt that much. For the pricing of financial products, adding 6% to stay for 3 months is not as damaging as 4.5% interest for a year. Let's just use gold as an explanation. When the US dollar index was 100, gold was at around 1000 for about two years. Why was the US dollar index 110+? Using the pricing mechanism of UBS's gold investment analysis model, even considering the influence of currency overspending, the current price of gold should be around 1,300. Why has gold withstood the trend of precious metals such as gold, commodities, and US stocks have not emerged from the trend of a one-sided decline in US bonds due to interest rate hikes? Interest income from fixed bank deposits, let alone a commodity with no interest return such as gold. If you buy physical gold and keep it for 100 years, it won't increase. It's because the FED interest rate is lower than the CPI, and the market is still in a dream where the FED raises interest rates by 4%, and your CPI is still above 8%. The market feels that this return is negative. If you want to beat the current market, you need to invest. This is why all kinds of products are still being supported. All kinds of media and public opinion, regardless of whether they are positive or unfavorable, can be used as a driving force for the rise. What else are they afraid to say. Holding cash in an inflationary environment won't hurt you; instead, the anti-inflationary actions you make will reduce your wealth. So don't worry about how much interest rate hikes, ah, slow down the rate hike. The key is when the FED cuts interest rates and how long the high interest rates will last, and the decline in CPI is the main driving force for future pricing declines.
The macro cycle is a cycle of several years. How will the script be written for the next few months or even a year. Generally speaking, after a sharp drop, after killing idle funds and funds from outside the US, then there is no interest rate hike by 3 yards, then interest rate hikes are moderated, then the wave continues to be locked in. After that, there is no interest rate hike by 2 yards; it continues to rise again, then lock in another wave, then keep interest rates unchanged, then raise and then kill again. However, the problem is that due to last year's base period factors, the CPI will definitely take a turn this month, and it will drop quite a bit next month. Once the FED interest rate is raised to around 5% in the first half of next year, and once the CPI falls below 5%, when the difference between the two is corrected, the dream of negative interest rates in the market will awaken. At that time, precious metals, commodities, stock markets, and even real estate set prices... That's really interesting. So in the next few months, don't be fooled by the CPI decline as good news (of course, market makers use this public opinion to push up prices). If you're not a large-scale investor and don't have enough capital, go ahead and take it no matter how long it is good. Don't die too much; I've seen too many scrupulous investors who clearly went in the right direction and lost money. Pay attention to your own leverage risk, and I hope everyone can make a fortune in this round.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
清风徐徐OP : If you are in doubt, you are welcome to leave a message in the comment area, or you can trust me privately. Here I wish you all the stock market Changhong.
顶风买菜真难啊 : Teacher, please have a dozen tea eggs.
mubbiiee : Think alike, now institutions still have a lot of money, this kind of capital bubble can not be eliminated by a fall in the stock market. There is plenty of hot money for institutions, companies and individuals. If there is no need for hot money, inflation will not stop.