AMD stock's expected returns
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US$ Since AMD's expected return is equivalent to ~15%, it is only a modest buy at the current price. However, buying AMD via Xilinx could improve future returns, making it a worthy option. We will discuss this merger arbitrage play in just a moment, but before we do so, let's discuss something critical to our valuation.
The growth assumption of 15% CAGR from a base of $24B implies a 2031 revenue figure of $100B. If AMD fails to win a monopolistic market share (comparable to Intel's past dominance) over the next decade, these revenue growth targets may not be achieved. We must be cognizant of the fact that AMD is up against the likes of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ , $Apple(AAPL.US$ , $Intel(INTC.US$ , ARM-based chip makers, and all other big-tech companies making their own chips in-house. Now, let's take a look at consensus analyst estimates for AMD's revenue growth rates:
As you can see, AMD's growth rate is expected to decelerate significantly over the coming years. Now, I understand that Wall Street analysts are wrong most of the time, and I can envision a world where AMD does $100B in revenue every year. However, I don't think we have an ample margin of safety while investing in AMD due to aggressive growth projections priced into its stock.
With the acquisition of Xilinx, AMD is expanding its total addressable market from ~80B to ~$110B. Currently, AMD's product portfolio is not as broad as Intel and Nvidia (AMD project's data center TAM for its products at just $45B, Intel and Nvidia have data center TAM's of ~$230B); however, this should be viewed as an opportunity for growth. With that being said, AMD's 3rd Gen EPYC processors (the fastest x86 server CPUs) are winning market share in the data center (still heavily dominated by Intel), and the company has a strong product roadmap for further enhancing its presence in high-performance computing, AI, and data center markets.
With the impending 2022 launches of Zen4 powered EPYC CPU processors and CDNA2-powered GPUs, AMD is set to maintain its product leadership over Intel, and capture more market share in the data center in 2022 and beyond. As we know, Intel is struggling with its manufacturing process, and a move to outsource advanced node manufacturing (to $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$ for Ponte Vecchio and a few other upcoming Intel products) is not enough to stop AMD's higher-performing, less power consuming products from winning market share (at least in the medium term). Hence, AMD can deliver another spectacular year of sales growth in 2022 (far better than what analyst estimates suggest).
After years of solid execution, AMD has regained customer trust in the data center markets as evidenced by its recent partnerships with some of the largest cloud providers in the world. Under the exemplary leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD can become a true heavyweight in the burgeoning semiconductor industry over the next decade and beyond.
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Marvan : 3% terminal growth rate? Why? When long term historic average S&P500 EPS growth rate is 6%? Your 3 % assumption leads to HUGE undervaluation
Rickydi : People are going to believe Pat Gelsinger never falls in love with any CEO.
BriceeeeeLee : IMO, AMD’s turn around story is far from ending. I consider taking ~50% market share of DC CPU as chapter 1 of the story. Chapter 2 will be AMD starts taking DC GPU market share from NVDA. So I think AMD SP has a long way to go up.