Futu Securities, Tiger Securities
$UP Fintech(TIGR.US$ Let's discuss in depth some of Futu Tiger's current important issues.
1. Questions about the domestic exhibition industry. First, let me give you an inappropriate example. There was a war in Syria three months ago. I told you in China that the government army recruits 10,000 people a day, including room and board, and daily wage settlement. As a result, you got tempted. You applied for your own Afghanistan visa and got off the plane to find government forces. Excuse me, do I count as Afghan government forces exhibiting their businesses in the country? As another example, let me tell you that Macau casinos are fun, with food and drink, and sexy dealers. The variety of ways to play is completely different from playing poker at the entrance of our village. As a result, you were moved and bought a ticket to go to Macau to play. Excuse me, can I count as Macau casinos exhibiting their business in China? In addition to Futu, all overseas subsidiaries of Chinese brokerage firms have been able to accept account transactions from mainland residents before, and this behavior has continued for many years. Therefore, if this act is determined to be an illegal financial act, is it necessary to trace it, and if so, how can it be punished? What are the penalties for the brokerage firms involved? How do banks punish? (Don't say the bank doesn't know...) How are shareholders penalized? Once traceability is involved, it will have a huge social impact and generate risks in order to deal with risks. Therefore, this question can actually give rise to three questions: (1) Whether these brokers' exhibiting business is considered a financial act requiring a license. (2) If calculated, then how should it be regulated in the future? The relevant business will be suspended until the regulatory measures are introduced. (3) How to characterize behavior that occurred in the past and how to deal with it. 2. Issues relating to exchange control. Many people have no idea about this issue; they think that leaving the country's funds is a violation of Wang Law. To put it bluntly, it may be that poverty limits imagination. Chinese people invest in real estate globally, how do they get their money out? A big bag and a small bag on your back? How did they buy those two Canadian mansions? Furthermore, the country's exchange control policy has always been a two-way control, managing both inflows and outflows. When pressure is high on the inflow of hot money, controls on capital outflow are relaxed. When there is a lot of pressure on the outflow of hot money (such as 2018), controls on capital outflows will be tightened. This is something that many people who don't work in forex can't imagine. For example, in the past, it was very popular to use a credit card abroad to buy insurance. This kind of behavior completely circumvented the 50,000 US dollar foreign exchange purchase limit; later, too many outflows were controlled. The act of these brokerage firms assisting domestic residents to remit funds to buy stocks has indeed changed the nature of the use of 50,000 US dollars in foreign exchange purchases. It will definitely need to be rectified in the short term; if they are liberalized in the future, that is another matter. However, putting this act online doesn't mean that it is necessary to put these brokerage firms to death at all. Of those who bought a luxury home abroad, which one was caught? Has the corresponding cross-border real estate agent been arrested? Those who have purchased millions of overseas dividend insurances, as well as corresponding insurance companies, have not been processed retroactively. Obviously, this kind of thing is more serious. It not only changed the use of funds, but also surpassed the $50,000 limit. 3. Domestic exhibitions and outbound capital are the core issues for brokerage firms like FUTU at present. As for user information security, etc., it is a minor issue, so I will not conduct an analysis. I have analyzed the FUTU bottom copy issue before. Judging from the information received so far, I think the possibility of a neutral situation is increasing. In other words, domestic additions will be stopped, and stock will not be asked. Under these circumstances, I think FUTU's reasonable valuation in 2022 is US$9.23 billion, which corresponds to a share price of 63 yuan. Of course, when the market has consistent expectations, the stock price will not stay at what I think is reasonable; it is likely to drop by 10% to 30%. Judging from the decline in volume over the past two days, the market is indeed very panicked, but opportunities often arise from panic. Some people see the stock price as high as ten yuan, or even zero; I think it's a bit out of place. Many others liken FUTU's problems to extracurricular training. The point is that almost all of the extracurricular training business is domestic; of course, it is close to zero. If the extracurricular education industry also went overseas a few years ago and went to the US for a volume of students who eat, drink and have fun every day, why is today's situation like this. E-cigarettes, for example, now also face great policy uncertainty. If it is completely banned domestically, maybe RLX will return to zero, and will Smore International return to zero? FUTU's situation is more similar to SMOORE International rather than RLX. You need to have a clear understanding of this. Get your bullets ready and take a look at it step by step. Perhaps this is the appeal of the market.
1. Questions about the domestic exhibition industry. First, let me give you an inappropriate example. There was a war in Syria three months ago. I told you in China that the government army recruits 10,000 people a day, including room and board, and daily wage settlement. As a result, you got tempted. You applied for your own Afghanistan visa and got off the plane to find government forces. Excuse me, do I count as Afghan government forces exhibiting their businesses in the country? As another example, let me tell you that Macau casinos are fun, with food and drink, and sexy dealers. The variety of ways to play is completely different from playing poker at the entrance of our village. As a result, you were moved and bought a ticket to go to Macau to play. Excuse me, can I count as Macau casinos exhibiting their business in China? In addition to Futu, all overseas subsidiaries of Chinese brokerage firms have been able to accept account transactions from mainland residents before, and this behavior has continued for many years. Therefore, if this act is determined to be an illegal financial act, is it necessary to trace it, and if so, how can it be punished? What are the penalties for the brokerage firms involved? How do banks punish? (Don't say the bank doesn't know...) How are shareholders penalized? Once traceability is involved, it will have a huge social impact and generate risks in order to deal with risks. Therefore, this question can actually give rise to three questions: (1) Whether these brokers' exhibiting business is considered a financial act requiring a license. (2) If calculated, then how should it be regulated in the future? The relevant business will be suspended until the regulatory measures are introduced. (3) How to characterize behavior that occurred in the past and how to deal with it. 2. Issues relating to exchange control. Many people have no idea about this issue; they think that leaving the country's funds is a violation of Wang Law. To put it bluntly, it may be that poverty limits imagination. Chinese people invest in real estate globally, how do they get their money out? A big bag and a small bag on your back? How did they buy those two Canadian mansions? Furthermore, the country's exchange control policy has always been a two-way control, managing both inflows and outflows. When pressure is high on the inflow of hot money, controls on capital outflow are relaxed. When there is a lot of pressure on the outflow of hot money (such as 2018), controls on capital outflows will be tightened. This is something that many people who don't work in forex can't imagine. For example, in the past, it was very popular to use a credit card abroad to buy insurance. This kind of behavior completely circumvented the 50,000 US dollar foreign exchange purchase limit; later, too many outflows were controlled. The act of these brokerage firms assisting domestic residents to remit funds to buy stocks has indeed changed the nature of the use of 50,000 US dollars in foreign exchange purchases. It will definitely need to be rectified in the short term; if they are liberalized in the future, that is another matter. However, putting this act online doesn't mean that it is necessary to put these brokerage firms to death at all. Of those who bought a luxury home abroad, which one was caught? Has the corresponding cross-border real estate agent been arrested? Those who have purchased millions of overseas dividend insurances, as well as corresponding insurance companies, have not been processed retroactively. Obviously, this kind of thing is more serious. It not only changed the use of funds, but also surpassed the $50,000 limit. 3. Domestic exhibitions and outbound capital are the core issues for brokerage firms like FUTU at present. As for user information security, etc., it is a minor issue, so I will not conduct an analysis. I have analyzed the FUTU bottom copy issue before. Judging from the information received so far, I think the possibility of a neutral situation is increasing. In other words, domestic additions will be stopped, and stock will not be asked. Under these circumstances, I think FUTU's reasonable valuation in 2022 is US$9.23 billion, which corresponds to a share price of 63 yuan. Of course, when the market has consistent expectations, the stock price will not stay at what I think is reasonable; it is likely to drop by 10% to 30%. Judging from the decline in volume over the past two days, the market is indeed very panicked, but opportunities often arise from panic. Some people see the stock price as high as ten yuan, or even zero; I think it's a bit out of place. Many others liken FUTU's problems to extracurricular training. The point is that almost all of the extracurricular training business is domestic; of course, it is close to zero. If the extracurricular education industry also went overseas a few years ago and went to the US for a volume of students who eat, drink and have fun every day, why is today's situation like this. E-cigarettes, for example, now also face great policy uncertainty. If it is completely banned domestically, maybe RLX will return to zero, and will Smore International return to zero? FUTU's situation is more similar to SMOORE International rather than RLX. You need to have a clear understanding of this. Get your bullets ready and take a look at it step by step. Perhaps this is the appeal of the market.
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SANDRO 善子 : I SUPPORT YOUR SENTIMENT: FUTU2022'S FAIR VALUATION IS $92.3M, CORRESPONDING TO THE SHARE PRICE OF $63. And we will soon reach that goal.
金汇大大OP SANDRO 善子: Dry it and it's over
金汇大大OP SANDRO 善子: Dry it and it's over
SANDRO 善子 : I now have a price of 64, thank you for the analysis
SANDRO 善子 : Please ask what is a reasonable price for tigers? Thank you
Elephant In The Room : Fair Value of Futu is: US$73.57; and for TIGR, it's: USD8.56.