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USD/CNH News
US Dollar: PCE Inflation Eases USD Pressure, Traders Eye OPEC+ Meeting
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market fundamentals affecting the US dollar (USD), examining fiscal policy, economic indicators, and monetary policy developments.
The Federal Reserve needs more evidence to confirm that the path to cooling inflation is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term
This week, Federal Reserve officials received evidence that inflation continues to fall (albeit fluctuating), but policymakers are unlikely to change their positions where more evidence is needed. The Zhitong Finance App learned that government data released on Friday showed that the basic inflation index preferred by the Federal Reserve cooled down last month, and the growth rate was the slowest since this year. Additionally, consumers cut spending in April as the economy grew slower than expected in the first quarter. These reports paint a picture of a moderate economic slowdown, which is what policymakers want to see, and dispels concerns about a renewed acceleration in price growth. But officials may look for it after the next few weeks of meetings
Oil prices fall as Federal Reserve officials hint they won't cut interest rates
Remarks by Federal Reserve officials about keeping interest rates stable led to a drop in oil prices. U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels, indicating a decline in demand. OPEC+ negotiations will extend sharp production cuts to 2025 and stabilize the market.
Will the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator reach a 3-year low?
After the CPI cooled down in April, the progress of US inflation was tested again by key data. Today at 20:30 Beijing time (8:30 a.m. EST), the US Department of Commerce will release PCE data for April. The market currently expects the overall PCE price index to rise 0.3% month-on-month in April, in line with the previous value, and is expected to remain flat at 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with the previous value. The core PCE price index is expected to remain flat at 2.8% year over year. If the year-on-year increase slows slightly, then the core PCE price index will be the one since April 2021
US Core PCE Inflation Set to Steady as Federal Reserve Rate Cut for September Hangs in the Balance
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in April.
Federal Reserve officials expect inflation to continue to fall in the second half of the year, and interest rate hikes are unlikely
New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams said he expects inflation to continue to fall in the second half of this year, and interest rate hikes are unlikely. He expects inflation measured by PCE to fall to around 2.5% by the end of this year, and close to 2% next year. He was unable to explain when he might support interest rate cuts, stressing that this depends on upcoming economic data, and that the policy path is being adjusted as the outlook changes.
National Bureau of Statistics: The official manufacturing PMI was 49.5% in May, and enterprise production continued to expand
The production and operation activities of enterprises have maintained the trend of resuming development
Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman makes another hawkish remark: the policy may not have as many restrictions as expected, and neutral interest rates may have risen
Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan said that high interest rates may not have as much of a deterrent effect on the economy as policy makers expected, and emphasized that officials must reserve options for future adjustments.
Dallas Fed President Says Considering Interest Rate Cuts Too Early Policy Is Restrictive or Not as Good as Expected
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said that high interest rates may not stifle the economy as much as policymakers expected, and emphasized that officials must reserve options for future adjustments.
Goldman Sachs Group President Urges the Federal Reserve to concentrate on fighting inflation and not announce victory too soon
Goldman Sachs Group President John Waldron urges the Federal Reserve to ensure it doesn't divert attention from the fight to curb inflation
New York Federal Reserve Chairman: The Fed's monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to reduce inflation to 2% next year
The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Federal Reserve's “top three” and New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams said on Thursday that the current monetary policy is restrictive enough to reduce the inflation rate to 2% per annum next year. He said that although the job market has softened, it is still stable, which means the Federal Reserve can wait patiently for better inflation data while keeping a close eye on changes in employment and inflation. The Federal Reserve has the dual task set by Congress, which is to ensure maximum employment and price stability in the US economy. Williams believes the Federal Reserve can achieve the 2% inflation target without significantly slowing the economy or raising the unemployment rate. “The economy in the past year
Fed's Bostic: Rate Hike Shouldn't Be Required to Reach 2% Inflation Goal
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted on Thursday during an interview with Fox Business that the Atlanta Fed head doesn't believe further rate hikes should be required to reach the Fed's 2% annual inflation target.
Forex Today: The FX Universe Now Looks at US PCE
The USD Index (DXY) came under pressure and retreated from weekly highs past the 105.00 hurdle against the backdrop of declining US yields.
Fed's Goolsbee: Job Market Remains the Strongest Part of the Economy
President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee noted on Thursday that housing inflation remains a key sticking point in price growth, and that the US labor market remains quite strong.
Fed's Williams: Expect Inflation at 2.5% This Year, Closer to 2% Next Year
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams noted on Thursday that, while inflation is still too high, he belives Fed policy is positioned to slowly get price growth back to the Fed's 2% annual target.
High interest rates curb demand for home buyers The number of home purchase contracts signed in the US in April recorded the biggest drop in three years
The number of home purchase contracts signed in the US in April showed the biggest drop in three years, a new low since February 2021
US Dollar Retreats, DXY Loses Gains From Sharp Recovery on Wednesday
On Thursday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a retreat after a sharp recovery on Wednesday.
The US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was lower than the initial value. Consumption and inflation indicators were revised down
The growth rate of the US economy in the first quarter was lower than the initial value, mainly reflecting that consumer spending was weaker than expected. According to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday, GDP for the first three months of this year was equivalent to an annual growth rate of 1.3%, which is lower than the initial value of 1.6%. Personal spending, which is the main engine of the economy, increased by 2.0%, and the initial value was an increase of 2.5%. These data highlight the decline in economic momentum at the beginning of 2024 after continuous unexpected growth in 2023. High interest rates, reduced savings accumulated during the pandemic, and slowing income growth are some of the key factors affecting American households and businesses. The decline in consumer spending growth is mainly due to commodities
Consumer spending is fatigued, and the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was revised to 1.3%
The growth rate of the US economy in the first quarter was lower than initially announced, reflecting lower consumer spending than expected.
US Q1 GDP Revised Lower in Second Estimate, PCE Growth Revised Down
US economic growth, measured by gross domestic product, was revised down to a 1.3% increase in Q1 from a 1.6% gain in the advance estimate, in line with a 1.3% increase expected in a survey compiled b