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European Central Bank committee member Vitor Constancio is optimistic: if inflation continues to cool, further interest rate cuts may be possible.
In the European Central Bank's latest statement, Commissioner Mario Centeno revealed a positive outlook on monetary policy.
Euro Trades Higher on the Day, Eyeing 1.0750 – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is modestly higher on Tuesday's session, reflecting a mild narrowing in 10Y OAT/Bund spreads. The gap remains relatively significant (75bps), however, as tensions in the Eurozone persist, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
ECB Vice President Guindos: Quarterly Forecast Meeting Will Be Key for Major Interest Rate Decisions.
Vice President of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, hinted that the quarterly forecast meeting will be a key decision for interest rates. This decision maker suggested that meetings to prepare forecasts in September and December may be crucial. "Forecasts are updated every three months, and the next one is in September," Guindos said. "This is one of the most important and interesting moments because forecassts are an important indicator of how interest rates will evolve." His speech is consistent with the views of other decision makers who do not want to cut interest rates further at the July meeting. "The medium-term direction is clear, but in the short term, it will depend on the data," he said.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Edges Higher to 47.5 in June Vs. 50.0 Expected
The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index edges a tad higher from 47.1 in May to 47.5 in June. The market consensus was for a 50.0 print.
EUR Keeps Afloat Amid ECB Comments – Scotiabank
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers indicated that the French situation is “contained”, allowing the Euro (EUR) to float above 1.07, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
European Central Bank's chief economist is confident that inflation will fall back to 2% in the second half of next year.
Zhijun Finance learned from the app that Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, said in an interview on Monday local time that the European Central Bank is confident that the inflation rate will fall back to the target value of 2% next year, although there will inevitably be some "noisy" inflation rate data in the process. "We have great confidence in the inflation target for the second half of next year," Lane said in a media interview on Monday at the London Stock Exchange. "So we must carefully interpret the economic data we receive, but try to distinguish between noise and key signals." In the interview with the Chief of the European Central Bank...
ECB's Lane: Seeing Significant Wage Increases in Some Countries
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Phillip Lane noted on Monday that they are seeing significant wage increases in some Eurozone countries, per Reuters.
European Central Bank Committee Member Vujcic: Interest rates may be lowered in September only if inflation improves.
Boris Vujcic, the Governor of the Croatian National Bank and member of the ECB, stated that if inflation is to improve, they would like to reduce interest rates in September.
Inflation Must Improve for ECB Cut in September, Vujcic Says
An interest-rate cut in September would require an improvement in the European Central Bank’s inflation outlook, according to Governing Council member Boris Vujcic.
ECB's Kazaks Says Must Not Allow Inflation to Remain Above 2% Into 2026
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said on Sunday that the bank must not allow inflation to remain above 2% into 2026, adding that he is concerned about delays beyond this.
ECB Executive Board member Kazaks: If inflation data is good, will support the market's expectation of ECB interest rate cuts.
On Friday, Martin Kazaks, a member of the European Central Bank's committee, stated that if inflation continues to slow down as expected, the ECB may continue to lower interest rates in line with market expectations.
Ifo predicts: The European Cup may drive Germany's Q2 economic growth by 0.1%.
According to data from the Ifo Institute, the month-long European football championship that opened in Germany on Friday is expected to boost the German economy by 0.1% in the second quarter. In a report, Ifo researcher Gerome Wolf said: 'However, this impact will only be temporary, which means that due to the return of tourists after the end of the 2024 European Cup, German service exports may decline again in the third quarter, overall unchanged.' Ifo said that large-scale sports events usually have 'relatively small effects, except for the tourism industry,' and compared it to the 2 held in Germany.
ECB's Vasle: Possible for More Rate Cuts If Baseline Scenario Holds
The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Bostjan Vasle said on Thursday, it is “possible for more rate cuts if baseline scenario holds.”
The baseline scenario of ECB Governing Council member Vasle points to further interest rate cuts within this year in Europe.
Bostjan Vasle, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said there is a possibility of further interest rate cuts if the bank's expectations of a further slowdown in inflation become a reality. "If the baseline scenario becomes a reality and the data is ideal, then we may expect interest rates to continue to be cut over the next two years," said Vasle, who is also the governor of the Central Bank of Slovenia, in an interview with Finance. "Otherwise, it is wise to take further action at a later time." Last week, the European Central Bank lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points but also raised its inflation forecast for 2024 and 2025. This decision has caused investors...
European Central Bank Committee: Core inflation in the euro zone is still very challenging.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Nowotny stated that the potential consumer price index growth in the Eurozone is proving to be stubborn.
European Central Bank official Nagel said that the core inflation in the eurozone "remains sticky".
Joachim Nagel, a member of the European Central Bank, said that it is a fact that the basic inflation in the euro area is stubborn. The German central bank president reiterated at the Americas International Economic Forum that he and his colleagues will not simply automatically lower borrowing costs, but will determine the situation at every meeting. "Core inflation is indeed still sticky," Nagel said in Montreal, Canada, on Wednesday, acknowledging that easing monetary policy last week was right. "Our road is bumpy, but we all know that the last mile is the most complex." The European Central Bank cut interest rates last week as expected, but also raised its outlook for 2024.
The European Central Bank said that the euro's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropped due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to a report by the European Central Bank, the share of the euro in the global official currency holdings fell to its lowest level since 2017 last year. In the past year, the euro-denominated assets held by countries decreased by about 1 percentage point, pushing the euro's share in forex reserves to 20% at the end of the fourth quarter. It was 21% in 2022 and 19.2% in 2017. The European Central Bank stated that potential reasons for the decline in the popularity of the euro mentioned in the report include the Russia-Ukraine war and the Swiss National Bank's currency intervention. The report pointed out that about 40% of Russia's forex reserves are in euros. As of the end of last year, the total amount of assets held by the European Central Bank was about 4.9 trillion euros.
China Post Securities: ECB cut interest rates, raising inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 higher than expected, without making any commitment to future rate paths.
ECB President Lagarde said that the decision to cut interest rates was supported by historical data, while the upward adjustment of inflation expectations was a judgement on the future, and the two were not contradictory.
Euro Under Pressure as Macron Calls Snap Election
The euro is down for a third straight day and has dropped 1.3% since Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0731 in the European session, down 0.32% on the day. There are no releases out of the US or the eurozone today.
ECB's Lane: We Will Be Agile on Interest Rates
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Phillip Lane said on Tuesday that they will be agile on interest rates, per Reuters.