New York Fed: Neutral interest rates stable at a low level in the first quarter.
Data released by the New York Fed on Friday showed that the neutral interest rate remained at a low level in the first quarter of this year.
Fed's Mester: Despite the improvement in data, inflation risks still tend to rise.
Cleveland Fed President Mester said that despite the pleasing latest inflation data, she still believes that inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
Chicago Fed President: May inflation data paves the way for interest rate cuts.
Zhifubao Finance learned that Chicago Fed Chairman Guo Ersi said on Friday that if future inflation data is as good as May's consumer price index, the Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates. He pointed out that a strong labor market means that the Fed can rely on inflation to drive interest rate cuts. Guo Ersi said in a fireside chat at the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit, "This data is just for a month, but it's very good." According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the May consumer price index was almost flat, rising only 0.00575%, while the market expected a 0.1% increase.
The high inflation in the USA flabbergasts the whistle-blower who strongly criticizes the fiscal revenue system proposed by Trump as the mother of stagflation!
Former US Treasury Secretary and whistle-blower for US high inflation, Summers harshly criticized the fiscal revenue system proposed by former President Trump, saying on Friday that this is the mother of stagflation and will also trigger a global economic war. He warned that this could easily lead to mortgage loan interest rates reaching 10%.
Two Federal Reserve officials emphasized the hope to see several months of good inflation data before lowering interest rates.
Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, said, "Recent data shows that inflation is softening, which is good news." She hopes to see several more months of good data before considering a rate cut. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Mester said, "I would like to see several more months of relatively good inflation data, which means a decline in inflation rates and the beginning of a downward trend in short-term inflation expectations." Mester said, "I believe that inflation risks are on the rise, and the labor market is both upward and downward." She said, "We have made good progress in fighting inflation in the past two years, but inflation is still there."
Consumer confidence in the USA unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, with a slight rebound in long-term inflation expectations.
According to analysis, the decline in consumer sentiment in the USA coincides with signs of a weak labor market. Although low-income households have seen significant wage growth, their budgets remain tight even with the slowdown in inflation, due to the high cost of goods. The views of middle-income consumers are similar to those of low-income consumers, which is different from historical patterns.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and usd.
Yesterday, the unexpected decline in US PPI data and the decrease in the number of people claiming unemployment relief sent a mixed signal to the US dollar. The central bank speeches from ECB President Lagarde and FOMC member Koch may cause market volatility and affect currency trends.
ECB Executive Board member Kazaks: If inflation data is good, will support the market's expectation of ECB interest rate cuts.
On Friday, Martin Kazaks, a member of the European Central Bank's committee, stated that if inflation continues to slow down as expected, the ECB may continue to lower interest rates in line with market expectations.
Euro/Dollar volatility is on the rise, and traders are facing new challenges.
In the volatility of the global financial market, the euro/dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair has always occupied a core position. As one of the most traded and influential currency pairs, every fluctuation affects the hearts of global investors. This article will delve into the latest technical analysis, analyst views, and market dynamics of EUR/USD.
Ifo predicts: The European Cup may drive Germany's Q2 economic growth by 0.1%.
According to data from the Ifo Institute, the month-long European football championship that opened in Germany on Friday is expected to boost the German economy by 0.1% in the second quarter. In a report, Ifo researcher Gerome Wolf said: 'However, this impact will only be temporary, which means that due to the return of tourists after the end of the 2024 European Cup, German service exports may decline again in the third quarter, overall unchanged.' Ifo said that large-scale sports events usually have 'relatively small effects, except for the tourism industry,' and compared it to the 2 held in Germany.
EUR/USD: Dollar's Mild Rise Remains in Play With 1.0700 Level Be the Next Challenge
The single European currency's retreat continues and has now given up all the gains it managed to achieve two days earlier in the wake of the US consumers inflation announcement.
US Dollar Holding up Well Despite Rate Pricing
It’s been an interesting week for financial markets. The most striking development in our opinion is the fact that the market is back to pricing two full rate cuts from the Fed in 2024, and yet, the Dollar has held up relatively well considering.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Remains Below 1.0750 After Breaking Below the Rectangle Formation
Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a bearish bias for the pair
In May, inflation in the USA was lower than expected, and the probability of interest rate cuts in September has risen to around 60%.
The US inflation remained stable in May, with no price increases for the first time since June 2021. The annual inflation rate has dropped to 3.3%, slightly lower than the market's expectation of 3.4%. The unexpected drop in inflation rate has ignited investors’ hope that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in the coming months.
EUR/USD Holds Steady Below 1.0750 Amid Stronger US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.0735 on Friday during the early Asian trading hours.
Homebuyers welcome a new opportunity! USA mortgage rates have once again dropped.
This week, the mortgage interest rates in the United States have once again decreased.
EUR/USD Backslides as Risk-off Flows Bolster Greenback Heading Into Friday
EUR/USD tumbled back into recent lows below 1.0750 on Thursday, paring away recent gains as confidence in the Euro (EUR) flounders on the back of EU political instability.
Inflation crisis analysis of the US economy: Can "longer and higher" interest rates cause a global economic shakeup?
The Federal Reserve had hoped that 2024 would be a year of interest rate cuts. However, with inflation more persistent than almost anyone expected, those expectations are quickly fading.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Speculation and Wild Guesses
It's almost as if the central bankers at the Federal Reserve are throwing darts at the wall to determine the trajectory of monetary policy.
US Dollar Extends Recovery as Market Digests Fed Revisions and PPI Data
On Thursday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its positive momentum, extending its recovery into Thursday's session above 105.00.