CNHUSD CNH/USD
- 0.13725
- -0.00009-0.07%
CNH/USD News
Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates again in the hope of supporting the economy and curbing the rise of the Swiss franc.
Swiss National Bank has once again cut interest rates to ease economic constraints and suppress the rise of the Swiss franc, in stark contrast to the hesitancy of other central banks around the world to loosen policies. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, which was previously seen as an unpredictable decision by observers. Some investors bet that the bank would cut interest rates, while a slight majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the central bank to maintain interest rates. In a statement, the Swiss National Bank stated that "potential inflationary pressures have fallen again compared to the previous quarter." After the interest rate decision was announced, the Swiss franc fell, falling by about 0.4% against the euro and the US dollar.
The central parity rate of Renminbi is 7.1192, down 33 points.
On June 20th, the central parity rate of the renminbi reported 7.1192, a decrease of 33 points from the previous trading day's central parity rate of 7.1159. Multiple Federal Reserve officials are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Economists issue warnings: not cutting interest rates is "playing with fire". Multiple Federal Reserve officials have made statements urging the market to be patient with interest rate cuts, emphasizing that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. On the same day, former Federal Reserve economist Sam issued a warning that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, it will be "playing with fire" and may push the US economy into recession. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser of Allianz Group, also warned that if the Federal Reserve continues to delay in cutting interest rates...
New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, coming out of recession.
Data released by New Zealand's statistics bureau on Thursday showed the country experienced moderate growth in the first quarter of this year, coming out of a recession. The data showed that New Zealand's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2% on a quarter-to-quarter basis in the first quarter, higher than the economists' expectation of 0.1%. Compared with the same period last year, GDP in the first quarter increased by 0.3%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. Although a robust recovery in immigration and tourism is helping economic activity, high borrowing costs are restraining consumer spending and business investment. "We expect the economy to remain at its lowest level of growth this year," said the senior analyst of West Pacific Banks in Auckland.
The Bank of Canada once discussed whether to wait until July to cut interest rates, but ultimately decided to cut them in June.
Bank of Canada officials once discussed whether to wait until July to cut interest rates to confirm that the inflation rate is still on the road to the bank's 2% target. The Bank's Governing Council, made up of six members, considered waiting for more consumer price data to be released to further ensure that it was time to loosen monetary policy. Ultimately, they decided to cut the policy rate to 4.75% at the June 5 meeting. The summary of these discussions was released on Wednesday. According to this summary, the slowdown in basic price pressures for four consecutive months was enough to provide a basis for the first rate cut. Policymakers also unanimously believed that if inflation continues.
Due to high service inflation, the market lowered its bet on the Bank of England's interest rate cut in August.
Traders have reduced bets on the Bank of England's monetary easing in the coming months as data showed that service inflation in May remained higher than expected. Currently, the market is expecting a 30% chance of rate cuts in August, down from 45% before the data release. Traders believe that there is a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut before November, and a 60% chance of a second rate cut, lower than Tuesday's forecast of 80%. Despite the headline inflation rate falling to the central bank's target for the first time in nearly three years, traders expect the closely watched service inflation data to keep policymakers cautious. Since the beginning of this year, the market has been expecting a rate cut by the Bank of England.
The cost of hedging against the Swiss franc's volatility has risen to its highest level since 2015, and the market is anxiously waiting for the Swiss central bank's interest rate decision.
On Wednesday morning, the overnight hedging cost of the Swiss franc skyrocketed, reaching the highest increase since the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly canceled the Swiss franc-euro exchange rate cap in 2015. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and the market is still uncertain whether the central bank will choose to lower interest rates or send a signal to support the Swiss franc through forex intervention. This has led to the highest hedging costs for Swiss franc volatility since 2022. The overnight volatility of the euro against the Swiss franc surged to 18.27% at one point, the highest level since March 2023, and later fell to around 15%. The current market concerns mainly revolve around policy risks, and Goldman Sachs strategists pointed out that the Swiss National Bank.
The silence of the Swiss National Bank makes interest rate cuts uncertain.
The decision of the Swiss National Bank this week will be another tense event, as officials decide whether to cut interest rates or maintain them. Thursday's decision comes three weeks after Swiss National Bank policymakers last publicized their comments, with investors speculating on the prospect of further action in the market volatility and the appreciation of the Swiss franc. Economists have varying views on the outcome, with a few predicting that Switzerland will be the first country to end its easing cycle. In March, Switzerland's interest rate cut made it the fastest-cutting country among the top 10 trading currencies globally. Compared with other countries,
French stock market leads the decline in European stock market, constrained by uncertainty surrounding the election.
After two consecutive increases, the French stock market fell, and the impact of political risks on the market remained. The French CAC 40 index closed down 0.8%, while the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell slightly by 0.2%. From the perspective of the Stoxx Europe 600 index, European basic resources, insurance, and tourism stocks led the gains, while real estate and technology stocks performed the worst. The FTSE 250 index of mid-cap British stocks fell slightly, despite data showing that the inflation rate fell to the Bank of England's target level for the first time in nearly three years, providing support for interest rate cuts later this year. The Stoxx 600 index has been sluggish this month as French premature elections have caused investors to flee.
Dollar Index to Trade in Range – OCBC
USD traded modestly softer as US retail sales disappointed. Fed speakers are hesitant to define the date for the next rate cut, OCBC FX Strategist Christopher Wong notes.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos: If inflation slows down, the central bank may further reduce interest rates.
Member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, Mario Centeno, said that as long as inflation continues to ease, the European Central Bank can further relax its monetary policy. "The interest rate cycle will continue to evolve," Centeno told lawmakers in Lisbon on Wednesday. "If inflation continues to be strong, interest rates will fall, and inflation is currently strong." However, due to concerns that rapid wage growth may make it difficult for inflation to return to the target of 2%, the European Central Bank is not eager to take further action after the interest rate cut this month. It is expected that there will not be a second action until at least September, when a new season arrives.
Traders may have overestimated the impact of Japan's central bank reducing the scale of bond purchases.
Traders seem to have overreacted to what the Bank of Japan governor said about the 'significant' reduction of bond purchases. This is the view of several strategists, as the market anticipates the central bank will announce a reduction in its massive bond holdings next month. The bank estimates that every 1% drop in its share of the bond market will cause a 2 basis point rise in the 10-year yield. Assuming that the Bank of Japan, as predicted by one strategist, gradually reduces its monthly bond purchases from the current 6 trillion Japanese yen ($380 billion) to 2 trillion yen over the next two years, the bank's estimate shows that the yield will rise.
The central parity rate of RMB is reported as 7.1159, down by 11 basis points.
On June 19th, the central parity rate of the RMB was reported at 7.1159, down 11 basis points from the previous trading day when it was reported at 7.1148. Williams, one of the top three officials of the Fed, said that the U.S. economy was strong and that more data was needed before cutting interest rates. Williams, who is referred to as one of the Fed's top three officials and enjoys permanent voting rights on the FOMC, said that the U.S. economy was developing in the right direction but declined to indicate when he would support a rate cut. Williams emphasized that any decision regarding the timing or extent of the policy relaxation this year would depend on the upcoming economic data. He stated that recent inflation data was encouraging and predicted that
New Zealand's chief economist at the central bank: inflation expected to continue to slow down and high interest rates will still be maintained for some time.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects inflation to continue to slow, but needs more time to determine. Paul Conway, Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, stated on Wednesday in Wellington that the target range of pushing the inflation rate back to the 1%-3% range is making good progress. Rising idle capacity and declining inflation expectations may further alleviate price pressures, and domestically ‘sticky’ inflation is also expected to eventually slow. "These processes may be faster or slower than current forecasts," he said. "Overall, restrictive policies need to be maintained for a period of time to give us confidence that the inflation rate can be within a reasonable time frame.
Traders are betting on a rise in US Treasury bonds, with the market expecting two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Traders are betting that US Treasuries will rise, re-entering call trades they abandoned before last week's inflation data and the Fed's decision were announced. In the past week, demand for futures contracts benefiting from the rebound in the bond market has risen sharply, and investors have regained confidence in economic indicators, moving from weakening price pressures to soft retail sales, supporting expectations of interest rate cuts in the US. The market believes that interest rates will be cut twice in 2024, while Fed officials predict only one. The momentum in the spot market is also increasing, with JPMorgan's survey showing the highest net long position since May 20th. This is due to last week's inflation data and the Fed's interest rate decision, referred to as the "double winds".
Federal Reserve officials emphasize the need for more evidence of cooling inflation and remain cautious about the timing of a rate cut.
Zhixun Finance and Economics app learned that on Tuesday, Federal Reserve officials unanimously emphasized the need for more evidence of inflation cooling before interest rate cuts. Several officials also provided insight into the timing of interest rate cuts. Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors, said that if the economic situation develops as she expects, it may be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates "later this year." Alberto Musalem, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, stated in his first important policy speech that it may take "several quarters" of economic data to support a rate cut. New York Federal Reserve President Williams (Joh
Expected to increase by 27%: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the US government's budget deficit will be nearly $2 trillion this year.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that within the decade leading up to 2034, the annual deficit will be equal to or exceed 5.5% of GDP, the first time it has remained at a high ratio for over five years since 1930. The CBO expects the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to be postponed from mid-year to the first quarter of next year.
Overnight news: Analysts are bullish on Nvidia's market cap rising to 5 trillion dollars, while Apple is putting the development of the second generation of Vision Pro on hold. Consumer spending in the United States is slowing down.
For more global financial news, please visit the 7x24-hour real-time financial news website. Market closing: S&P and Nasdaq hit new records. Nvidia becomes the largest US stock market capitalization. On June 18th, the top 20 US stock market turnover: Nvidia hit a new high again and became the market cap champion. US WTI crude oil rose 1.5% on Tuesday, continuing yesterday's rise. Popular China concept stocks rose and fell on Tuesday. Taiwan Semiconductor rose 1.4%, and PDD Holdings fell 2.8%. Major European stock indices closed up, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.71%. Macro news: Ukraine's Prime Minister: Negotiations for Ukraine to join the European Union will start on the 25th. It is reported that the European Union will ...
Fed Members Cool On Raising Interest Rates: 'These Conditions Could Take Months, And More Likely Quarters To Play Out'
Members of the Federal Reserve have indicated that they are in no rush to raise interest rates in speeches given on Tuesday.
Top US economists warn that the Federal Reserve is playing with fire by not lowering interest rates, and it could push the economy into a recession.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve employee and economist, pointed out that if the Fed does not cut interest rates now, it may risk pushing the economy into a recession. When the three-month average unemployment rate is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession. As the unemployment level has risen in recent months, the so-called 'Sahm rule' has increasingly been discussed on Wall Street, indicating cracks in the originally strong labor market and suggesting potential trouble. This in turn has sparked speculation about when the Fed will begin cutting interest rates. (The Sahm rule is Claudi)
Global market cap leader, Nvidia, Several Fed officials urge to remain patient with rate cuts, Goldman Sachs still expects two rate cuts by the Fed this year.
The top news that global financial media collectively focused on last night and this morning are: multiple Fed officials urge patience in cutting interest rates. A few people gave time-line hints. Multiple Fed officials emphasized on Tuesday that more evidence of inflation cooling is needed before lowering interest rates, and two decision-makers expressed their own views on possible action time. Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, said that if the economy develops as she expects, cutting interest rates may be appropriate "later this year." Alberto Musalem, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, expressed in his first important policy speech since he took office