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Inflation crisis analysis of the US economy: Can "longer and higher" interest rates cause a global economic shakeup?
The Federal Reserve had hoped that 2024 would be a year of interest rate cuts. However, with inflation more persistent than almost anyone expected, those expectations are quickly fading.
Oriental Fund Management Bank: With the market digesting the US Fed's interest rate expectations, the dollar will benefit.
Valentin Marinov, Head of G-10 FX Research and Strategy at Orient Finance Bank, said that as the market adjusts its expectations and turns to digesting the prospect of less than two US interest rate cuts this year, the US dollar will benefit. "Market pricing shows that the probability of two rate cuts by the Fed is still close to 100%," he said, and expected the expectation to return to 1.5 rate cuts. "This could enhance the relative interest rate attraction of the US dollar," he explained. The US dollar index was basically flat, and the index once fell after data showed that US producer prices unexpectedly fell in May. "The automatic decline of the US dollar does not necessarily evolve into new..."
The Federal Reserve is adrift! Hawkish decisions have sparked a major debate on Wall Street, significantly reducing expectations of an interest rate cut.
This article will explore experts' interpretation of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and its potential impact on the stock market.
Further signs of cooling in US inflation! May PPI unexpectedly saw the largest decline in the past seven months.
There are signs of further cooling in inflation in the USA.
Brazil Finance Chief's Star Fades as He Faces Worst Moment of Tenure
Haddad suffered a major blow Tuesday, when Senate leader Rodrigo Pacheco swatted down a proposal to limit tax credits to cover the cost of an exemption from payroll levies.
Dollar Could Fall If Weak U.S. Inflation Data Means Fed Rate-Cut Forecasts Are 'Stale'
0759 GMT - The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced its forecasts to just one rate cut in 2024 but Wednesday's weak U.S. inflation data for May means multiple rate cuts this year are still possible, in which
US interest rate cuts expectations delayed, analysts continue to be bearish on Asian currencies.
Analysts have strengthened their bearish stance on most Asian currencies.
Sinolink: The Fed will still likely cut interest rates before the third quarter.
The incremental information conveyed at the summary meeting indicates that the Fed's interest rate reduction path still depends mainly on employment data, followed by the interpretation of overall economic data such as inflation data. The meeting did not yet provide clear conditions for interest rate cuts.
Despite the cooling of CPI, expectations of interest rate cuts remain high! The Federal Reserve continues to hold steady and is expected to cut interest rates only once this year.
The dot plot shows that no one expects a rate cut three times this year, while last time more than half of the officials expected at least three rate cuts. Nearly 80% of officials expect at least one rate cut this time, and the number of officials who do not expect rate cuts this year has doubled to four.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Federal Reserve was very cautious in lowering interest rates this time because it feared making the same mistakes again.
The US CPI data for May showed that inflation has cooled significantly, but the signal from the Fed's FOMC meeting caught the market off guard with its hawkish stance. The Fed did not follow the footsteps of the "global central bank interest rate cut trend", and the interest rate resolution remained unchanged. The Fed's dot plot still shows that interest rates will only be cut once this year, and the Fed is still undecided on the path of interest rate policy. Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "New Fed Communications Agency," suggested that the Fed's cautious attitude towards this rate cut may be due to Fed officials' PTSD after repeatedly misjudging economic and inflation data in the past.
Deficit spending! The USA budget deficit has reached 1.2 trillion dollars, with interest payments exceeding defense spending.
The budget deficit for May was $347 billion, far exceeding expectations.
The signal released by the Federal Reserve: it suggests a rate cut once this year, but maintains an open attitude towards cutting twice.
The soft US CPI data for May has sparked a frenzy in the overnight US stock market, and the S&P and Nasdaq continue to hit new highs. Although the Fed tends to view May CPI as a single data point, and the June dot plot is hawkish, the policy statement still acknowledges the progress of inflation slowing down. Many market participants believe that the Fed maintains an open attitude towards two 25 bp rate cuts this year. The June interest rate decision shows that the Fed has kept the benchmark interest rate within the range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the seventh consecutive time, maintaining the new high of more than 20 years. The dot plot shows that nearly 80% of officials expect at least one rate cut this year, and the number of officials who do not expect a rate cut this year is higher than that in March.
Hawkish decisions versus dovish sentiment! The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates once this year, but remains open to two cuts.
According to the Zhī Tōng Cái Jīng APP, Federal Reserve officials have lowered their expectations of interest rate cuts this year. However, Chairman Powell still remains open to further interest rate cuts, and he emphasized that the new forecast represents a conservative approach. At the two-day policy meeting held in Washington on Wednesday, policymakers announced their latest economic forecasts. According to their median estimate, they expect to cut borrowing costs only once in 2024, rather than the previously estimated three times. They also raised their inflation forecast, despite the optimistic consumer price data released earlier on the same day. Nationwide Mutual.
Interest rate cut expected in September! Market still sings against the Federal Reserve.
Powell maintains a hawkish tone, but traders continue to increase bets on rate cuts due to the impact of falling inflation data, making the possibility of the first rate cut in September once again a reality.
"New Bond King" Gundlach: The Fed may not cut interest rates in 2024.
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of investment firm DoubleLine Capital, known as the "new bond king," said on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates by the end of 2024.
Schroder: If inflation pressure eases in the USA, which sector has the opportunity to outperform the market?
Schroders expects that the inflation rate will fall to 2% to 3% in 2024, and from past data, growth stocks and technology stocks are likely to outperform the market.
Forex Today: US Inflation Dominates Headlines
The USD Index (DXY) revisited the area of three-day lows on the back of declining US yields, lower CPI and after the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected. On June 13, the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due seconded by Producer Prices and the speech by Fed’s Williams.
Powell Speech: Not at a Point of Giving Dates for Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25%-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.
Powell Speech: Readings Like Today's CPI Is a Step in the Right Direction
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25%-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.
Powell Speech: We Are Prepared to Adjust Policy as Appropriate
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25%-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.