“过了腊八就是年”。随着除夕夜脚步的临近,关于年夜饭的生意也提上了日程。当下外卖已成为都市人日常不可缺的一环,更重要的是年前多地散状爆发的疫情不确定性带来的“就地过年”政策,以及较便宜的价钱就能外卖叫上一桌年夜饭套餐,也更加催生了年轻人对于预制菜的需求。
同样的,资本和企业的嗅觉也是敏锐的。预制菜行业风口已现,众多资本便闻声而入。先有“预制菜第一股”味知香登陆A股市场,后有寻味狮、珍味小美园、钢圈食汇、三餐有料等创业公司频频融资,融资金额达千万元级。这背后,更是有IDG资本、源码资本、美团龙珠等知名投资机构的支持,近期甚至有消息称陆正耀创办的舌尖科技集团正在孵化一个名为“舌尖工坊”的预制菜新项目。多家研究机构表示,目前预制菜的市场规模正在以肉眼可见的速度扩张,预计2026年预制菜行业规模有望超4000亿元,2021-2026年CAGR达到15%左右,其中B端预制菜规模超3000亿元,C端预制菜规模超1000亿元。
疫情常态化催生预制菜需求水涨船高
预制菜并非新事物。事实上,全球预制菜已有80多年的发展历史,在美日等海外国家均成长出了极具影响力的大型预制菜企业,诸如Sysco、康尼格拉、泰森、日冷、神户物产等。在我国,预制菜概念则起步于千禧年,2014年外卖行业蓬勃发展发展推动B端井喷,到2020年因疫情刺激家庭端消费需求加速。2020年以前,预制菜更多的表现是“雷声大,雨点小”,但到了2020年后,和预制菜有关的企业便如雨后春笋般爆发起来。疫情常态化下,在家就餐场景增多,盒马、叮咚买菜等新零售渠道兴起也加速了预制菜的消费普及,该行业也呈现由速冻米面等极少数品类拓展至多种菜品。
第三方市场调研数据显示,我国一二线城市用户购买预制菜较多,华东区域客户量较大,调研用户中超八成用户每周消费预制菜产品,顾客购买预制菜主要是为了节省时间。目前预制菜市场规模超2000亿元,相关企业超7万家,近5年涌入大量市场参与者。值得一提的是,2021年的双11,预制菜便通过数据证明了市场的火爆。天猫数据显示,双11期间,粤菜、川菜、湘菜、西北菜等经典菜系都推出了半成品菜,其中包括半成品菜、速食菜在内的预制菜销售火爆,成交额同比增长约两倍。年关将近,2022年的年夜饭的临近再度让预制菜的需求水涨船高。据叮咚买菜数据显示,今年年货节,快手菜相关的食品同比去年增长超过400%。
与此同时,眼下又正值年报预告披露窗口,预制菜板块好消息不断。1月11日,国联水产公告与盒马合作,共同对对虾、罗非鱼、小龙虾等水产品预制菜品进行深度开发和市场推广等;同日得利斯披露投资者关系活动记录表公告,2020年狭义的预制菜体量(剔除低温肉制品类)已达4亿多,2021年营收增长较快,预计2022年预制菜营收规模约12亿元。除国联水产外,还有不少上市公司也在布局预制菜领域。湘佳股份在2021年12月24日披露的投资者关系活动记录表提及,发展熟食及预制菜是公司产业链的进一步延伸,也是行业今后发展的一种趋势;得利斯在2022年1月11日披露的投资者关系活动记录表中指出,公司的预制菜业务在B端与C端的业务占比为7:3。
此外,龙大美食在互动易平台表示,公司已开展预制产品业务多年且发展良好,现有预制产品超百种。截至1月5日,公司为单一的餐饮客户提供的预制产品年销售额已过亿元。克明食品在互动易平台表示,公司目前正在开展预制菜行业的调研工作。同时,据河南商报也报道,在河南郑州,为了减少疫情带来的影响,郑州餐饮业积极求变,有餐饮企业赶在春节前,推出了年夜饭送餐服务以及预制菜年货大礼箱。
市场空间巨大 预制菜概念全面大涨
艾媒咨询数据显示,2021年中国预制菜市场规模预估为3459亿元。在饮食外部化和经济发展下,我国餐饮发展潜力大,驱动预制菜10年至7千亿,其中速冻菜约千亿左右。开源证券认为,从供应端餐饮企业来看,预制菜可有效降低餐饮企业房租、原材料、人工等成本,同时保障了连锁餐饮出品的一致性,运营效率较高;从需求端来看,预制菜性价比高、口感好,有效降低消费者的做菜负担,提升生活品质。目前行业区域特征明显,竞争格局分散,仍处于跑马圈地阶段。我国餐饮供应链市场规模超万亿,巨大市场空间待掘金,机构也看好预制菜行业的长期发展前景,随着行业纵深发展,预制菜以及餐饮供应链上游的相关企业仍具备较强的投资机会。投资标的方面,山西证券认为,能保证菜品口味的预制菜是家庭烹饪首选,建议关注预制菜专门生产企业味知香;涉足半成品餐饮企业广州酒家、同庆楼;拥有食品制造业务的企业安井食品、巴比食品、龙大美食。从竞争能力考虑,推荐关注老牌速冻龙头安井食品,预制菜上游供应链则可关注龙头千味央厨。
二级市场方面,新的一年,A股预制菜概念全面爆发。国联水产、金陵饭店、福成股份、春雪食品、北交所个股盖世食品等多股获资金疯狂热捧,市场情绪持续火热。1月13日,预制菜概念板块再度爆发,板块涨幅接大涨超6%,强势领涨沪深两市。截至午间收盘,国联水产(300094.CN)20CM一字涨停,春雪食品(605567.CN)、西安饮食(000721.CN)、海欣食品(002702.CN)、同庆楼(605108.CN)、惠发食品等多股涨停,而其中的大部分个股今日为连续第二个交易日涨停。此外,味知香(605089.CN)、千味央厨(001215.CN)、全聚德(002186.CN)等多股大涨近8%。
"after Laba is the New year." With the approach of New year's Eve, the business of New year's Eve dinner has also been put on the agenda. At present, takeout has become an indispensable part of the daily life of urbanites. What is more important is the policy of "celebrating the Spring Festival on the spot" brought about by the uncertainty of sporadic outbreaks in many places a year ago, and the ability to order a set meal for New year's Eve at a cheaper price. It has also spawned the demand of young people for prepared dishes.
Similarly, capital and enterprises have a keen sense of smell. The prefabricated food industry has become a tuyere, and a lot of capital has come in. First, "the first share of prefabricated dishes" Wei Zhixiang landed in the A-share market, and then there were start-up companies such as taste lion, delicacy Xiaomei Garden, steel circle food and exchange, and three meals with materials, and the amount of financing reached 10 million yuan. Behind this, there is the support of IDG Capital, Source Capital, Meituan Dragon Ball and other well-known investment institutions. Recently, it has even been reported that the tongue Tip Technology Group founded by Lu Zhengyao is incubating a new project called "tongue Tip Workshop". A number of research institutions said that at present, the market scale of prefabricated food is expanding at a rate visible to the naked eye. It is estimated that the scale of prefabricated food industry is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2026, and CAGR will reach about 15% in 2021-2026, of which the size of B-end prefabricated food is more than 300 billion yuan, and that of C-end prefabricated food is more than 100 billion yuan.
The normalization of the epidemic situation has led to a rise in the demand for prefabricated vegetables.
Prepared food is nothing new. In fact, global prefabricated food has a history of more than 80 years, and large-scale prefabricated food enterprises with great influence have grown up in overseas countries such as the United States and Japan, such as Sysco, ConAgra, Tyson, Sun Leng, Kobe products and so on. In China, the concept of prepared food started in the millennium. The vigorous development of the takeout industry in 2014 pushed B-end blowout, and household consumer demand accelerated due to the epidemic in 2020. Before 2020, prefabricated food is more likely to be "loud in thunder but less in rain", but after 2020, enterprises related to prefabricated food have sprung up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. Under the normalization of the epidemic, the number of dining scenes at home has increased, and the rise of new retail channels such as Box Horse and Dingdong (Cayman) Limited has also accelerated the popularity of prefabricated dishes, and the industry has also expanded from a very small number of categories such as quick-frozen rice noodles to a variety of dishes.
Third-party market research data show that users in first-and second-tier cities in China buy more prefabricated dishes, while customers in East China have a large number of customers. More than 80% of the surveyed users consume prefabricated food products every week, and customers mainly buy prefabricated dishes to save time. At present, the scale of the prefabricated vegetable market is more than 200 billion yuan, and there are more than 70, 000 related enterprises. It is worth mentioning that in the Singles' Day holiday in 2021, prefabricated dishes proved the popularity of the market through the data. Tmall data show that during the Singles' Day, classic cuisines such as Cantonese cuisine, Sichuan cuisine, Hunan cuisine and northwest cuisine all launched semi-finished dishes, including semi-finished dishes and fast food, with sales of prefabricated dishes booming, with turnover about three times higher than the same period last year. With the Lunar New year approaching, the New year's Eve dinner in 2022 has once again boosted the demand for prepared dishes. According to Dingdong (Cayman) Limited data, this year's New year's Festival, kaishou-related food increased by more than 400% compared with last year.
At the same time, it is now in the window of the pre-announcement of the annual report, and there is a lot of good news in the prefabricated food sector. On January 11, the League of Nations Aquatic products announcement cooperated with Box Horse to carry out in-depth development and marketing of prefabricated dishes such as prawns, tilapia, crayfish, and so on; on the same day, Delis disclosed the record table of investor relations activities, the volume of prefabricated vegetables in the narrow sense (excluding low-temperature meat products) had reached more than 400 million in 2020, revenue growth was rapid in 2021, and revenue from prefabricated vegetables was expected to be about 1.2 billion yuan in 2022. In addition to the League of Nations aquatic products, there are many listed companies are also in the layout of prefabricated food field. Xiangjia shares mentioned in the investor relations activity record sheet disclosed on December 24, 2021 that the development of cooked food and prepared vegetables is a further extension of the company's industrial chain and a trend for the future development of the industry. Delis pointed out in the investor relations activity record sheet disclosed on January 11, 2022 that the company's prefabricated food business accounts for 7:3 on the B side and C side of the business.
In addition, Longda Food said on the interactive easy platform that the company has carried out prefabricated product business for many years and developed well, and there are more than 100 kinds of prefabricated products. As of January 5, the annual sales of prefabricated products for single catering customers have exceeded 100 million yuan. Keming Food said on the interactive easy platform that the company is currently carrying out research work on the prepared food industry. At the same time, Henan Business Daily also reported that in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, in order to reduce the impact of the epidemic, the catering industry in Zhengzhou actively sought change, and some catering enterprises launched a New year's dinner delivery service and a large gift box of prepared dishes before the Spring Festival.
Huge market space the concept of prepared food has soared in an all-round way.
According to data from Ai Media Consulting, the size of China's prefabricated vegetable market in 2021 is estimated to be 345.9 billion yuan. Under the externalization of diet and economic development, China's catering has great potential for development, driving prefabricated dishes for 10 years to 700 billion, of which quick-frozen dishes are about 100 billion. According to open source securities, from the point of view of supply-side catering enterprises, prefabricated dishes can effectively reduce the rent, raw materials, labor and other costs of catering enterprises, while ensuring the consistency of chain catering products and high operational efficiency; from the demand side, prefabricated dishes are cost-effective and taste good, effectively reducing the cooking burden of consumers and improving the quality of life. At present, the regional characteristics of the industry are obvious, the competition pattern is scattered, and it is still in the stage of horse racing enclosure. The market scale of China's catering supply chain is over one trillion yuan, and the huge market space is waiting for gold. Institutions are also optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the prefabricated food industry. With the in-depth development of the industry, prefabricated food and related enterprises in the upper reaches of the catering supply chain still have strong investment opportunities. In terms of investment targets, Shanxi Securities believes that prefabricated dishes that can ensure the taste of dishes are the first choice for family cooking, and it is recommended to pay attention to the special production of prefabricated vegetables, and to set foot in Guangzhou Restaurant and Tongqing House, semi-finished catering enterprises. enterprises with food manufacturing business Anjing Food, Barbie Food, Longda Food. From the perspective of competitiveness, it is recommended to pay attention to the old quick-frozen leading Anjing food, while the prefabricated food upstream supply chain can pay attention to the leading Qianwei central chef.
In the secondary market , in the new year, the concept of A-share prefabricated food broke out in an all-round way. Many shares such as Guolian Aquatic products, Jinling Hotel, Fucheng shares, Spring Snow Foods and Geshi Foods of the Northern Stock Exchange have been crazily popular with funds, and the market mood continues to be hot. On January 13, the prefabricated food concept plate broke out again, and the plate rose by more than 6%, leading a strong rise in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. By midday, 300094.CN Aquatic products (300094.CN) rose by the daily limit, while Spring Snow Foods (605567.CN), Xi'an Diet (000721.CN), Haixin Foods (002702.CN), Tongqing House (605108.CN), Huifa Foods and other stocks rose by the daily limit, while most of them rose for the second trading day in a row. In addition, stocks such as 605089.CN, 001215.CN and 002186.CN rose nearly 8 per cent.