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中航证券:给予雪迪龙买入评级
AVIC Securities: give Xuedilong a buy rating

證券之星 ·  {{timeTz}}

2022-01-10中航证券邹润芳,朱祖跃,孙玉浩,唐保威对雪迪龙进行研究并发布了研究报告《碳排放双控有望提振碳监测市场需求,看好公司长期发展》,本报告对雪迪龙给出买入评级,当前股价为8.76元。

2022-01-10 CNAC Securities Zou Runfang, Zhu Zuyue, Sun Yuhao and Tang Baowei conducted research on Xue Dilong and released a research report that "dual control of carbon emissions is expected to boost the demand for carbon monitoring market and be optimistic about the company's long-term development." this report gives a buy rating to Xue Dilong, the current share price is 8.76 yuan.


  雪迪龙(002658)
  深耕环境监测领域20年,争做环境质量改善解决方案专家
  北京雪迪龙科技股份有限公司是国内专业从事环境监测、工业过程分析、环境大数据、污染治理与节能、环境综合服务业务的高新技术企业。公司是国内环境监测和分析仪器市场的先入者之一,在环境监测领域拥有近20年的技术储备、产品研发、行业应用等相关经验,拥有成熟的技术、销售和服务团队。公司定位为环境质量改善解决方案专家,通过提供“减污降碳协同增效”与“持续改善环境质量”的综合解决方案,助力环境质量达标改善及“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的实现。2020年公司实现营收12.13亿元,同比-2.45%;归母净利润1.50亿元,同比+6.95%。2021年前三季度,公司实现营收8.79亿元,同比+30.37%;归母净利润1.59亿元,同比+159.71%,今年全年盈利有望实现大幅增长。
  从碳核查到实时在线监测,碳监测系统逐步获得政策加持
  目前碳排放核算规则主要有国家发改委印发的企业温室气体核算方法与报告指南和各地市发改委发布的二氧化碳核算和报告指南、温室气体排放核算与报告指南等。企业二氧化碳排放量由计算获得,如北京市的标准中,电力生产业化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放量燃烧=∑=1(×),其中(GJ)为核算和报告年度内第i种化石燃料的活动数据、(tCO2/GJ)为第i种化石燃料的二氧化碳排放因子、i为化石燃料类型代号。在核算化工和石化生产企业工业生产过程的碳排放量时,需要企业提供部分含碳原辅料及含碳产品的纯度或含碳率等自测值作为排放因子。
  然而,在进行碳排放报告与核查工作时,不同企业复杂的工艺过程、海量的基础数据、变化的核算边界都给该项工作带来诸多问题。目前来说,很多核查机构对同一个企业在相同指南的应用上都有着不一样的理解和解释。一些核查机构对指南的理解范围会比较宽泛,而另一些机构理解就会相对细致,这些差别造成企业的碳排放量计算不一致。
  碳排放实时在线监测有望解决碳核查中的种种问题。根据中国碳监测工作组,碳核算和碳监测的关系简单来说,前者主要是基于活动水平和排放因子的乘积计算温室气体排放量,后者是结合大气中温室气体浓度监测数据和同化反演模式计算温室气体排放量。监测可以推动完善核算体系,支撑排放因子本地化更新,也可以对核算结果进行校核。
  2020年底,全国首个火力发电企业二氧化碳排放在线监测技术要求标准正式发布;2021年7月中旬全国碳市场正式交易,对碳排放量核算的准确性提出了更高的要求;2021年9月份,生态环境部发布《碳监测评估试点工作方案》(下称“《方案》”),对碳监测评估试点工作进行部署,试点围绕火电、钢铁等五类重点行业展开,唐山、太原等16个城市入围试点城市;2021年12月份,中央经济工作会议引导要正确认识和把握碳达峰碳中和,创造条件尽早实现能耗“双控”向碳排放总量和强度“双控”转变。我们认为碳监测政策导向明显,碳监测市场需求有望得到提振。
  具备行业影响力的环境综合服务商,政策加码叠加业绩突出,有望迎来戴维斯双击
  公司深耕环境监测行业,经过多年努力,已由环境监测设备提供商逐渐发展成为环境综合服务商,在行业内具有较高的影响力。目前公司参与了部分火电企业的CO2排放监测试点,也正在参与工信部《建材行业固定源二氧化碳排放在线监测技术要求》标准的编制工作,同时公司提供了部分环境监测设备用于北京冬奥会期间的空气质量监测保障工作。公司前三季度归母净利润1.59亿元,同比+159.71%;净利率为17.99%,同比+8.99pct;同时公司存货、合同负债均为近年历史较高水平,合同负债3.47亿元,同比+8%、环比+19%。后续业绩持续增长有所保障。目前公司滚动PE为22,2021年市场预期PE为33(万得一致预测),公司全年业绩或将超出市场预期。政策加码叠加业绩突出,公司有望迎来戴维斯双击。
  投资建议
  预计公司2022、2023年的归母净利润分别为2.49亿元、3.27亿元,对应目前PE分别为22X/17X,看好公司长期发展。
  风险提示
  宏观经济下行,市场需求下滑;原材料价格出现大幅波动;碳监测政策推进不及预期等。


Xue Dillon (002658)
Deep ploughing in the field of environmental monitoring for 20 years, striving to be an expert in environmental quality improvement solutions
Beijing Xuedilong Technology Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise specializing in environmental monitoring, industrial process analysis, environmental big data, pollution control and energy saving, and environmental comprehensive services. The company is one of the pioneers in the domestic environmental monitoring and analytical instrument market, with nearly 20 years of technical reserve, product research and development, industry application and other relevant experience in the field of environmental monitoring, as well as mature technical, sales and service teams. The company is positioned as an expert in environmental quality improvement solutions, and contributes to the improvement of environmental quality standards and the realization of the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" by providing a comprehensive solution of "pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy" and "continuous improvement of environmental quality". In 2020, the company achieved revenue of 1.213 billion yuan,-2.45% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 150 million yuan, + 6.95% compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 879 million yuan, + 30.37% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 159 million yuan, + 159.71% compared with the same period last year.
From carbon verification to real-time online monitoring, carbon monitoring system has gradually gained policy support.
At present, carbon emissions accounting rules mainly include enterprise greenhouse gas accounting methods and reporting guidelines issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, carbon dioxide accounting and reporting guidelines issued by prefectural and municipal development and reform commissions, greenhouse gas emissions accounting and reporting guidelines, and so on. The carbon dioxide emissions of enterprises are calculated. For example, in the Beijing standard, the carbon dioxide emissions generated by fossil fuel combustion in the power generation industry = ∑ = 1 (×), where (GJ) is the activity data of the first fossil fuel in the accounting and reporting year, (tCO2/GJ) is the carbon dioxide emission factor of the first fossil fuel, and I is the code name of the fossil fuel type. When calculating the carbon emissions of chemical and petrochemical enterprises in the industrial production process, it is necessary for enterprises to provide self-measured values such as the purity or carbon content of some carbon-containing raw materials and carbon-containing products as emission factors.
However, when reporting and verifying carbon emissions, the complex technological processes of different enterprises, massive basic data and changing accounting boundaries all bring many problems to this work. At present, many verification agencies have different understandings and interpretations of the same enterprise in the application of the same guidelines. Some verification agencies will have a broad understanding of the guidelines, while others will have a relatively detailed understanding, and these differences will lead to inconsistencies in the calculation of companies' carbon emissions.
Real-time online monitoring of carbon emissions is expected to solve various problems in carbon verification. According to the China carbon Monitoring working Group, the relationship between carbon accounting and carbon monitoring is simply put. The former mainly calculates greenhouse gas emissions based on the product of activity levels and emission factors. The latter calculates greenhouse gas emissions based on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration monitoring data and assimilation inversion model. Monitoring can promote the improvement of the accounting system, support the localization and updating of emission factors, and check the accounting results.
At the end of 2020, the first technical standard for on-line monitoring of carbon dioxide emissions from thermal power enterprises was officially released, and the national carbon market was officially traded in mid-July 2021, which put forward higher requirements for the accuracy of carbon emissions accounting. In September 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the pilot work Plan for carbon Monitoring and Assessment (hereinafter referred to as "the Program"), which deployed the pilot work of carbon monitoring and assessment, which was carried out around five key industries, such as thermal power and iron and steel. Sixteen cities, including Tangshan and Taiyuan, were shortlisted as pilot cities. In December 2021, the Central Economic work Conference guided the correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak carbon neutralization, so as to create conditions to realize the transformation from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. We believe that the policy orientation of carbon monitoring is obvious, and the market demand for carbon monitoring is expected to be boosted.
The environmental integrated service provider with the influence of the industry, with outstanding performance in policy addition, is expected to usher in Davis' double-click.
The company deeply ploughs the environmental monitoring industry, and after years of efforts, it has gradually developed from an environmental monitoring equipment provider to an environmental integrated service provider, and has a high influence in the industry. At present, the company has participated in the pilot monitoring of CO2 emissions from some thermal power enterprises, and is also participating in the compilation of the standard "Technical requirements for on-line Monitoring of carbon dioxide emissions from Building Materials Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and at the same time, the company has provided some environmental monitoring equipment for air quality monitoring and guarantee during the Beijing Winter Olympic Games. The company's net profit in the first three quarters was 159 million yuan, + 159.71% compared with the same period last year; the net interest rate was 17.99%, + 8.99 pct; at the same time, the company's inventory and contract liabilities were at a high level in recent years, with contract liabilities of 347 million yuan, + 8% year-on-year and + 19% compared with the same period last year. Continued growth in follow-up performance is guaranteed. At present, the company's rolling PE is 22, and the market expectation PE for 2021 is 33 (Wonder consensus forecast). The company's annual results may exceed market expectations. Policy overlay outstanding performance, the company is expected to usher in Davis double-click.
Investment suggestion
It is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 2022 and 2023 is 249 million yuan and 327 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE of 22X/17X, which is optimistic about the long-term development of the company.
Risk hint
Macroeconomic downturn, market demand decline; raw material prices fluctuate sharply; carbon monitoring policy is less than expected.

证券之星估值分析工具显示,雪迪龙(002658)好公司评级为2.5星,好价格评级为3星,估值综合评级为2.5星。(评级范围:1 ~ 5星,最高5星)

According to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, Cedillon (002658) has a rating of 2.5 stars for good companies, 3 stars for good prices, and 2.5 stars for comprehensive valuations. (rating range: 1-5 stars, up to 5 stars)

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