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惠譽博華料未來兩年內地商業銀行資本充足率續趨升
Huiyubo Huabao will continue to increase the capital adequacy ratio of mainland commercial banks in the next two years.

即市頭條 ·  {{timeTz}}

惠譽評級旗下惠譽博華發表報告指出,去年以來中國政府和監管機構陸續發布和執行多項關於商業銀行資本的支持和監管政策,包括發行地方政府專項債補充商業銀行資本等。相關支持政策和監管新規的有效執行,有利於後疫情時代中國銀行業資本水平企穩上升,預計未來兩年商業銀行資本充足率和一級資本充足率保持上升趨勢,核心一級資本充足率有望企穩。

Fitch Bohua, a subsidiary of Fitch rating, pointed out in a report that since last year, the Chinese government and regulators have issued and implemented a number of support and regulatory policies on the capital of commercial banks, including the issuance of local government special bonds to replenish the capital of commercial banks. The effective implementation of relevant supporting policies and new regulatory regulations will help China's banking industry stabilize and rise in the post-epidemic era, and the capital adequacy ratio and tier one capital ratio of commercial banks are expected to maintain an upward trend in the next two years. The core tier one capital adequacy ratio is expected to stabilize.

至於國有銀行資本快速上升趨勢在總損失吸收能力(TLAC)新規下或有所放緩,股份制及地方性銀行資本水平有望提高。

As for the rapid upward trend of capital of state-owned banks may slow down under the new rules of total loss absorptive capacity (TLAC), the capital level of joint-stock and local banks is expected to improve.

惠譽博華去年測算的「四大行」TLAC缺口按年明顯縮小,未來非資本債務工具的發行有利於「四大行」總損失吸收能力按期達標。首批公布的系統重要性銀行(D-SIB)資本水平存在明顯差異,更高的資本要求將推動D-SIBs整體資本水平的提高。中小銀行發行資本工具的勢頭保持上升趨勢,疊加各地地方政府支持中小銀行發展專項債完成發行額度,中小銀行資本水平未來也有望穩中向好。

The TLAC gap of the "four major banks" estimated by Fitch Bohua last year has significantly narrowed year by year, and the future issuance of non-capital debt instruments will help the total loss absorptive capacity of the "big four banks" to meet the target on schedule. There are significant differences in the capital levels of the first batch of systemically important banks (D-SIB), and higher capital requirements will promote the improvement of the overall capital level of D-SIBs. Small and medium-sized banks to issue capital instruments to maintain the upward trend, superimposed by local governments to support the development of small and medium-sized banks to complete the issuance of special bonds, the capital level of small and medium-sized banks is also expected to improve steadily in the future.

綜合以上,惠譽博華認為銀行業資本充足率指標有望企穩上升。但另一方面,由於資產質量不確定仍存,對資本的影響仍需關注。

Combined with the above, Fitch Bohua believes that the banking capital adequacy index is expected to stabilize and rise. On the other hand, due to the uncertainty of asset quality, the impact on capital still needs to be paid attention to.

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