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收评:创业板指两日跌近5% 锂电半导体军工狂跌

Evaluation: the gem index fell nearly 5% in two days, and the military industry of lithium semiconductors plummeted.

證券之星 ·  Jan 5, 2022 02:12

The market continued to decline in the afternoon, with the gem index falling more than 3% at one point. On the disk, the concept of the Winter Olympic Games stock market concussion strong, iceberg hot and cold limit of 3 connected, Beijing shares, Jin Yi culture, Jia Linjie, vegetable 100 shares, Rhine Sports limit. Yuan Universe rebounded in the afternoon, Zhongqingbao 20CM rose by the limit, Jiachuang Video and Xuanya International rose by more than 10%. In terms of decline, afternoon track stocks remained weak, with a marked increase in the number of stocks falling by the limit or plummeting. As of the close, more than 50 stocks in the two cities fell by the limit or fell by more than 10%. On the whole, today's stocks fell more than rose less, more than 3300 stocks fell, and the turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.3052 trillion.

By the close, the Prev index was down 1.02%, the Shenzhen index was down 1.8%, and the gem index was down 2.73%. Northbound funds have a net inflow of 3.046 billion yuan throughout the day, of which Shanghai shares have a net inflow of 2.92 billion and Shenzhen stocks have a net inflow of 126 million.

The central bank launched a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan today, with a net repurchase of 200 billion yuan as 210 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires today.

At present, the open market of the central bank will continue small operations this week, and there is a high probability of net withdrawal throughout the week. However, institutions pointed out that liquidity in January is not secure, and it is expected that the central bank will re-intensify liquidity operations such as open market operations from the middle to the latter half of the year.

Institutions predict that before the Spring Festival this year, the liquidity supply gap will still exceed 1 trillion yuan. Tianfeng Securities expects a gap of about 1.8 trillion yuan, while CITIC expects it to reach 2.6 trillion yuan.

In recent trading days, the trend of the high prosperity plate is weak. Some market analysts said that the funds for the high-level high prosperity sector of the game is fierce, most of the stocks are institutional heavy stocks, there is no lack of profit-taking possibility.

Guohai Securities believes that although the recent popular track stocks have plummeted and the new energy track has been hit hard, it does not mean that the new energy track has lost its value of attention. In the short term, if there is no good stimulus, the new energy track may continue to fluctuate and adjust weakly. The new energy industry chain contains a lot of links, and does not rule out the possibility that there is no obvious increase in the capital transfer to the industry chain.

However, the current should not be pessimistic, the bottom of the stage needs more patience, the current market is optimistic about the structural market, after the Spring Festival should be more optimistic about the index. The overall trend of the high boom and high valuation track industry is optimistic in the medium term, but the short-term volatility will increase significantly, maintaining the view of time for space.

In terms of operational strategy, Caixin Securities mentioned that looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, under the background of "stable currency + structural broad credit", continuous anti-monopoly and crowded mainstream track transactions, the market will continue to favor small and medium-sized companies and marginal track stocks. It is expected that the A-share market will still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the index performance may not be as good as 2021, in turn optimistic about the following four sectors: (1) the sectors with prosperous production and sales. In the next 1-3 quarters, performance improvement is expected to be from strong to weak: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communications, computers.

(2) New Energy and other track stocks. It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, stocks with confirmed performance will still have high growth, and stocks with falsified performance will be pulled back.

(3) downstream consumer plate. China's PPI rose 12.9% in November from a year earlier, and the scissors gap was at an all-time high. This round of PPI-CPI convergence period is expected to last from November 2021 to August 2022, the consumer sector is likely to achieve excess income in the first half of next year, you can focus on the food and beverage and home appliance industry.

(4) the plate damaged by the epidemic situation. At present, the epidemic has spread to India, Africa and other places where vaccination is the weakest, which may mean that the global anti-epidemic process has come to an end. With the global epidemic under control in 2022, the damaged plate of the epidemic has the power of valuation and repair, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema line and so on.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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