During the holidays, Chinese people have a wine culture on the dinner table. At the end of 2021, many liquor companies announced price increases, and the closely watched Guizhou Moutai also arrived late, announcing the price increase during the period of New Year's Day.
This time, Maotai raised the prices of its two non-standard products, Maotai treasures and Maotai for 15 years, with price increases of 100 yuan per bottle and 1000 yuan per bottle respectively. Although the price has gone up, it is not the "flying wine" that the market pays most attention to. It makes people sigh for a moment that "she came out shyly after thousands of calls, and it is really difficult to raise prices in the sky."
However, a Maotai channel businessman in Beijing said that although Maotai did not directly increase the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai, it increased the company's profits by expanding the proportion of proprietary channels, increasing the sales of Maotai fine liquor, and raising the price of non-standard products, which is equivalent to a disguised price increase in Feitian Moutai.
The risk of tax increase may be increased by raising prices.
In the second half of 2021, the news that spirits may be subject to consumption tax has fermented in the market for a long time. With more than 10 liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Luzhou laojiao, Gujing tribute Liquor, willing Liquor Industry, alcoholic Liquor and Jiannanchun, announcing price increases for their core products, the topic that "the liquor industry will face the risk of tax increase" has been mentioned again.
According to the Ping an Securities Research report, the income tax rate of the liquor industry is levied according to 25% of ordinary enterprises, and the value-added tax is levied according to 13%, which is not significantly different from other industries. Business taxes and surcharges lead to great differences among industries due to the diversity of taxes. According to the horizontal comparison of business taxes and additional / business income of 28 industries classified in case level in 2020, the liquor industry topped the list with a ratio of 15.0%, while other industries accounted for less than 10% of business taxes and surcharges.
China International Capital Corporation has estimated that if the consumption tax is increased by 12%, the consumption tax of the liquor industry may increase by 322-51.5 billion yuan, and the distributor wholesale link will bear 20% or 30% of the new tax burden of the circulation link.
Generally speaking, if the liquor tax reform, the negative impact is mainly concentrated in weak brands, for Maotai, Wuliangye and other high-end brands, because of the strong brand power and strong bargaining power to channels and consumers, the new tax will actually be borne by channels or consumers, and will have little impact on enterprise profits.
In fact, Ping an Securities also pointed out that the liquor consumption tax has undergone many adjustments in history, and the adjustment had no significant impact on the stock price on the day of the adjustment. Even if you look at the whole year, the correlation between changes in stock prices and whether the policy is issued or not is not high.
However, at the various channel levels of selling alcohol, there are still hidden dangers in the tax revenue of the circulation link, because many buyers do not want invoices, so there are many tax risk loopholes.
The performance differentiation of liquor stock price in 2021
Looking back at 2021, the liquor sector can be called the spokesman of "twists and turns". Not only out of the ups and downs of the roller coaster market, the differentiation of individual stocks within the plate is also very significant.
Judging from the overall increase, a total of eight liquor stocks in the liquor sector recorded a rise in the range in 2021, with the top three rising respectively, with annual increases of 166.03%, 99% and 44.53%, respectively, with annual increases of 166.03%, 99% and 44.53%, respectively, with annual increases of 166.03%, 99% and 44.53%, respectively. The last is Guizhou Moutai, which rose 2.60% and failed to outperform the market (the Prev index rose 4.8% for the whole year and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.67%). In addition, Shunxin Agriculture, Yanghe shares, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu and other stocks have a relatively large callback in 2021, all of which are more than 15%.
In fact, most liquor stocks have been falling all the way after their peak at the beginning of the year, including the footage of Guizhou Moutai. On February 18, 2021, the share price of Guizhou Moutai once reached 2627.88 per share, creating a myth of A shares.
But after the high, Kweichow Moutai shares fell all the way, hitting a trough of 1500 yuan per share in mid-August and did not return to the high of 2000 yuan per share until December. However, even in the case of liquor stocks being sold off by the market, CITIC still insisted on singing more than Guizhou Moutai in August, maintaining an one-year target price of 3000 yuan per share.
At present, the share price of Guizhou Moutai fluctuates around 2050 yuan per share, which is nearly 50 per cent away from Citic's target price of 3000 yuan per share. It seems a long way off to achieve the goal of "breaking three" in August 2022.
However, CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD believes that the liquor industry is still in a period of benign development. At present, the channel inventory of various liquor enterprises is low, the control of terminals is being strengthened, and consumption upgrading drives the industry to focus on high-quality brands. Maotai's leading position in liquor will continue to be strengthened. Compared with international consumer goods companies, the valuation of Guizhou Moutai is still at a reasonably low level.
The performance of liquor at the beginning of 2022 is stable.
If the liquor sector in 2021 is a thrilling "roller coaster", then at the beginning of 2022, the liquor track has become a "snail", the performance of the two trading days of the New year is somewhat mediocre, did not get off to a good start, but there is no black door.
Take Guizhou Moutai as an example, although the stock price fluctuates, the rise and fall is limited to less than 2%; the rise and fall of the liquor index is also only 1.5% in extreme cases, and the stock price performance of most stocks is relatively stable.
However, on the whole, after many adjustments in 2021 and the gradual recovery of mobile sales in the entire liquor sector after the baptism of the epidemic, the liquor market tends to be stable and better in 2021, and the market valuation of liquor stocks is also gradually commensurate with the performance, and many institutions are still confident about the performance of the liquor sector in 2022.
Guohai Securities said that given that each leader has room at the end of the statement in 2021 and the current pace of payment is good, the annual upward trend of leading wine enterprises in 2022 is expected to be clearer, but it is still a structural opportunity. After years of growth, the high-end price base has gradually increased, and there will be a high probability of returning to steady growth in the future. Expectations should be appropriately reduced and long-term configuration can be made, with emphasis on Maotai. At the same time, the current liquor industry is transforming from the first growth stage to the second growth stage, and the second high end will take over the high end to achieve flexible growth. It is suggested that we should focus on grasping the sub-high end trend and continue to value the regional leader with solid foundation and continuous upgrading.
Xiao Zhuqing, director of Sichuan Fenqiuhuang Investment Management Co., Ltd., said that the liquor industry will still show a pattern of "the strong are always strong and the weak are always weak". At the same time, due to the reduction of purchasing power and the concept of high quality and low price, light bottle liquor (liquor products without packaging, without cartons, and can see the bottle directly) will become a category concerned by more breweries. It is expected to become a new profit growth point in the liquor industry, realizing a full range of blossoms from the middle and low end to the high end.