After a number of peers announced the price increase, Guizhou Moutai is also the news of the price increase, but the price increase is not the Feitian Moutai that the market has in mind.
At the same time, what is more noteworthy than the price rise in Moutai is that a number of companies in the consumer sector have announced price increases, which will lead the market to conclude that the transmission of PPI to CPI is accelerating. In this context, will the consumer sector return to strength again in 2022? Let's take a look.
Guizhou Moutai announces price increase
Starting from January 1, prices of Guizhou Moutai's new treasured Moutai Liquor and aged Guizhou Moutai Liquor 15 have been raised, according to the Hongxing Capital Bureau. Among them, the retail instruction price of the new rare Moutai Liquor increased by 100 yuan, from 4499 yuan per bottle to 4599 yuan per bottle, and the retail instruction price of 15 aged Guizhou Moutai Liquor increased by 1000 yuan, from 4999 yuan per bottle to 5999 yuan per bottle.
It should be pointed out that Feitian Moutai, which is most concerned by the market, has not risen in price. Some analysts pointed out that from the point of view of market acceptance and channel profit space, the price increase of Feitian Moutai also has a certain market basis, and the price increase of the two high-end products is also seen as a test of the market reaction.
As for the impact, the price increase of treasured wine, this sales share is very small, it is difficult to make much contribution to the performance, and it is more just a positive mood.
At the same time, Guizhou Moutai also issued an announcement on the production and operation of 2021.
The announcement shows that in 2020, the company produced about 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and about 28200 tons of series base liquor, and is expected to achieve an operating income of about 109 billion yuan (of which Maotai liquor revenue is about 93.2 billion yuan, and series wine camp income is about 12.6 billion yuan), an increase of about 11.2% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies is about 52 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.3% over the same period last year.
In addition, Shunxin Agriculture, Luzhou laojiao, willing to wine industry, Wuliangye and other wine enterprises have product price increase news.
These consumer companies have announced price increases
In addition to spirits, many other consumer goods companies have also announced price increases. In chronological order, a number of consumer goods companies, such as condiments, edible oil, dairy and mustard, have announced price increases.
On October 13, 2021, Haitian flavor industry announced that the ex-factory prices of some products such as soy sauce, oyster sauce and sauces were adjusted, and the adjustment range of the main products ranged from 3% to 7%.
On November 3, 2021, the research summary disclosed by Tianwei Foods shows that the company has raised the prices of two products in mid-October, and other products are being comprehensively combed. Hengshun vinegar, Anjing Food and Haixin Foods also announced price increases for their products.
On the same day, Golden Dragon Fish disclosed the latest research records, showing that the company adjusted the prices of different oil types at the end of 2020 and from March to April 2021. According to various factors such as raw materials, market prices, market competitiveness, and consumption power, the price increases of different oil types were different, and the overall price increase was about 10% to 15%.
On November 4, 2021, Canada Foods announced that it decided to adjust the ex-factory prices of a series of products with soy sauce, oyster sauce, cooking wine, chicken essence and vinegar by 3% to 7%.
On November 8, 2021, ancestral stock announced an increase in the ex-factory price of some plant protein drinks (mainly self-made bag soy milk), ranging from 15% to 20%.
On November 14, 2021, Fuling mustard announced that the ex-factory prices of some products were adjusted, and the increase of each category varied from 3% to 19%.
On November 18, 2021, Sanquan Foods announced that the company decided to reduce or increase the distribution price of some quick-frozen rice noodle products and surimi products by 3% and 10%.
On December 1, 2021, Qianwei Central Chef announced that the company decided to reduce or increase the sales price of some frozen rice noodle products by 2% and 10%.
Behind the rise in the price of consumer goods is PPI
So what is the reason for the collective announcement of price increases in a large number of consumer goods?
First, from a global point of view, the disruption of the supply chain due to the epidemic and the ultra-loose monetary policy in the United States in the past have led to a continuous rise in the price of raw materials for commodities.
China Merchants Bank Research Institute pointed out that the epidemic and other reasons have caused bottlenecks in key links of the global industrial chain, as well as key nodes in transportation and sales, resulting in shortages.
As for the first reason, the epidemic still restricts production in some areas. under the global distribution of the industrial chain, the stagnation of production in some countries hinders the whole industrial chain.
Second, one-way transport under the imbalance between global supply and demand, resulting in insufficient shipping capacity, shortage of containers and a sharp rise in port load.
Third, the cyclical underinvestment in the upstream raw materials industry before the epidemic, and the superposition of global "decarbonization" resulted in insufficient investment in fossil energy and a decline in the stability of energy supply, aggravating the current shortage of energy and raw materials.
The unbalanced recovery of the global economy under the epidemic, superimposed supply constraints caused by decarbonization and extreme weather, led to shortages and global supply chain disorders, driving up global inflation.
The second is the transmission from PPI to CPI. In terms of transmission reasons, on the one hand, the change of the means of production in PPI will inevitably lead to the change of any weight factor in CPI. For example, the increase in the price of crude oil as a means of production will increase the transportation costs of pork and vegetables in the weighting factor of CPI.
On the other hand, the content of consumption materials in PPI also overlaps and overlaps with the factor composition of CPI. It can be seen that PPI can not only transmit the price of CPI through the upstream and downstream industrial chain in the means of production, but also directly cause the change of CPI through the change of the price of consumer goods in the link of consumer goods.
As for the impact of the stock market, Guohai strategy believes that the 2021 cycle style deduces the recovery of both volume and price. Looking forward to 2022, social zero will rise synchronously with CPI, and consumption is expected to see both volume and price rise in the relay cycle.
Inflation continues to spread downstream, the rising price tide of listed companies in the consumer sector continues to spread, and wine and pharmaceutical companies have raised prices one after another after food processing, opening up room for profit improvement in the industry. the profit pattern in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain is ushered in redistribution, and the overall performance of the consumer plate is expected to be better than that of the cyclical plate in 2022.