Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that China Hongqiao (01378) conforms to the development trend of the industry, adjusts the "coal-electricity-aluminum" industry chain, and actively distributes clean "water-electricity-aluminum" production capacity. After the completion of the layout of the two major projects in Yunnan, it is expected to become a global head clean hydropower and aluminum production enterprise, and have more sustainable development ability to maintain the "buy" rating.

Events:On December 24, 2021, Yunnan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology announced the replacement plan of 1.93 million tons of electrolytic aluminum construction project of Yunnan Honghe New material Co., Ltd. China Hongqiao wholly-owned subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd. will transfer 1.93 million tons of production capacity to Yunnan to build 1.93 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Luxi County, Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province.

The main points of Guoxin Securities are as follows:

Comply with the requirements of the times and increase the proportion of clean energy

In mid-December this year, Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed a cooperation agreement with Shandong Weiqiao Venture Group Co., Ltd. and the people's Government of Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture and Luxi County to build a green and low-carbon demonstration industrial park with the local government of Honghe Prefecture. The industrial park covers an area of 8000 mu and will build projects such as green aluminum and high-end aluminum deep processing to realize green aluminum local high-end processing. The park will use clean and green energy, all using the energy-saving, carbon-reducing and highly automated 600KA production line independently developed by Weiqiao Entrepreneurship Group.

The Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Industry and Information Technology announced the transfer of the company's target of 1.93 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, which indicates that the company's clean hydropower and aluminum layout in Yunnan will be the next city.Together with the 2.03 million ton project of Yunnan Hongtai New material Co., Ltd., Yanshan County, Wenshan Prefecture, the company will have a clean hydropower and aluminum production capacity of 3.96 million tons in Yunnan in the future. Based on the company's total capacity index of 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, Shandong headquarters will retain 2.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the future, and the proportion of clean energy in the company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will exceed 50%.

The carbon emission per ton of aluminum in China is high, and the demand for carbon reduction is urgent.

According to the International Aluminum Association, coal accounts for 60% of the global electrolytic aluminum energy structure and 24.8% of hydropower stations in 2019. China's energy endowment determines that thermal power is the main power consumption in China's aluminum industry. Coal accounts for 88% of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is much higher than the global average, resulting in China's electrolytic aluminum unit emissions higher than the global average, with greater pressure to reduce emissions.

The proportion of clean energy in Yunnan power grid is much higher than the national average. According to data from Kunming Power Trading Center, hydropower on the generation side of Yunnan power grid accounted for 65.2%, wind power accounted for 10%, photovoltaic accounted for 1.6%, and water, light and wind power accounted for 77% in the first half of 2021. Increasing the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan can effectively increase the proportion of clean energy in the company.

The high profit of aluminum smelting is expected to be maintained for a long time.

Since the second half of this year, the prices of thermal coal and alumina have risen sharply, which has quickly squeezed out the profits of aluminum smelting, but with the landing of a series of national measures to stabilize prices and supply, the price of thermal coal has dropped sharply, and the price of alumina has also fallen to less than 3000 yuan / ton. profits from aluminum smelting have been repaired quickly.

At present, the coal inventory of the port around the Bohai Sea and the coal inventory of key power plants are high in the same period over the years, and the measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices continue to be carried out, so it is difficult for thermal coal to reproduce the large fluctuations in the third and fourth quarters. Alumina production capacity relative to electrolytic aluminum long-term excess capacity, short-term supply is limited superimposed speculation factors caused by price ups and downs are also difficult to reproduce. The bank expects the cost end of aluminum smelting to be relatively determined next year.

At present, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum society has dropped to around 800000 tons. According to the balance sheet data of various institutions, electrolytic aluminum is not expected to have a substantial surplus next year, the tight balance pattern of supply and demand in the aluminum industry will be maintained for a long time, and aluminum smelting profits are expected to remain at a medium to high level. China Hongqiao is a leading domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprise, which will continue to benefit from the high smelting profits brought about by the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the electrolytic aluminum industry in the future.

The company has the layout of the whole industry chain from bauxite to aluminum processing, and bauxite and alumina have the ability to be completely self-sufficient; the company complies with the development trend of the industry, adjusts the "coal-electricity-aluminum" industry chain, and actively distributes and cleans the "water-electricity-aluminum" production capacity. After the completion of the layout of the two major projects in Yunnan, it is expected to become a global head clean hydropower aluminum production enterprise and have more sustainable development ability.