Recent attacks have underscored the high degree of uncertainty surrounding Persian Gulf exports, and if tensions escalate significantly, the risk of upward pressure on oil prices in the near term could intensify once again.
Zhitong Finance APP learned that Goldman Sachs stated in a research report that recent oil price increases, driven by tanker attacks and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, highlight the critical short-term impact of shipping continuity through the Strait of Hormuz on oil prices. However, over the longer term, the bank estimates that sufficient pipeline export capacity will gradually come online in the Middle East. It expects Persian Gulf oil exporters to restore exports to more than 45% of pre-war levels by the end of 2027 and to over 60% by the end of 2028, thereby insulating future oil flows from any potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Historical experience shows that pipeline projects by individual countries in the Middle East are typically completed relatively quickly.
During the most intense phase of U.S.-Iran hostilities, the bank already raised its long-term oil price forecast—the three-year Brent futures price—by $9 per barrel to $76, primarily due to an increase in structural risk premium. Recent attacks have underscored the high degree of uncertainty surrounding Persian Gulf exports, and if tensions escalate significantly, the risk of further near-term upside pressure on oil prices could intensify again. However, if pipeline capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately expanded as anticipated, this would pose a downside risk to the bank’s long-term oil price outlook.