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LIVE MARKETS-Fourth COVID wave risks: "sizeable but manageable"

LIVE MARKETS-Fourth COVID wave risks: "sizeable but manageable"

實時市場--第四波COVID風險:“規模可觀但可控”
reuters ·  2021/11/23 06:44

* European shares down 1%, off opening lows

*歐洲股市下跌1%,脱離開盤低點

* Powell's renomination bolsters rate hike bets

*鮑威爾的重新提名支持升息押注

* Tech leads sectoral fallers, volatility picks up

*科技股領跌行業,波動性回升

* U.S. stock futures inch lower after sell-off

*美國股指期貨在拋售後小幅走低

Nov 23 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

11月23日-歡迎來到家裏,接受路透社記者為您帶來的實時市場報道。您可以通過market.Research@thomsonreurs.com與我們分享您的想法

FOURTH COVID WAVE RISKS : "SIZEABLE BUT MANAGEABLE" (1131 GMT)

第四波COVID風險:“規模可觀,但可控”(格林威治時間1131)

Investors shouldn't fret too much about the possible negative impact on economic growth stemming from this fourth wave of COVID-19 infections across Europe.

投資者不應過於擔心歐洲第四波新冠肺炎感染可能對經濟增長造成的負面影響。

Goldman Sachs has run a analysis to conclude risks are "sizeable but manageable" under their baseline scenario.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)進行了一項分析,得出結論認為,在基準情景下,風險是“相當大但可控的”。

The U.S. bank estimates a potential hit to Euro area GDP growth of 0.2 pct points in both Q4 and Q1 relative to their current forecast, and about half as much in the UK.

這家美國銀行估計,與目前的預測相比,歐元區第四季度和第一季度的GDP增長都可能受到0.2個百分點的潛在打擊,而英國的影響約為目前預測的一半。

"A sizeable but significantly smaller drag than last winter," they note, adding that in each scenario activity is set to rebound in Q2 and Q3 as countries unwind restrictions.

他們指出:“與去年冬天相比,這是一個相當大但明顯較小的拖累。”他們補充説,在每一種情況下,隨着各國解除限制,經濟活動都將在第二季度和第三季度反彈。

"We expect additional targeted restrictions in the big-four Euro area countries and (to a lesser extent) the UK, but do not look for a return to blanket national lockdowns..." it says.

“我們預計,歐元區四大國家和(程度較小的)英國會出台更多有針對性的限制措施,但不會恢復全面的國家封鎖……”上面寫着。

"Europe has significantly higher Covid immunity than last winter, which should help protect hospital capacity, especially in the South," it adds .

“歐洲的Covid免疫力明顯高於去年冬天,這應該有助於保護醫院的容量,特別是在南部,”它補充道。

GS downside scenario entails a repeat of last winter's lockdowns, meaning 1.4% cumulative decline in Euro area GDP.

GS的下行情景需要重演去年冬天的停擺,這意味着歐元區GDP累計下降1.4%。

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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YEAR-END TARGETS ACHIEVED: NOW WHAT? (1007 GMT)

年終目標實現:現在怎麼辦?(格林威治時間1007)

The bull run that has pushed many European benchmarks to breach above analyst targets show clear signs of fatigue, and now that COVID-19 and rate concerns are taking the top spot in the market narrative, many wonder if there's any upside left.

推動許多歐洲基準指數突破分析師目標的牛市顯示出明顯的疲態跡象,而現在新冠肺炎(Standard Chartered Bank)和對利率的擔憂正佔據市場敍事的首位,許多人想知道是否還會剩下任何上行空間。

For Christian Stocker, strategist at UniCredit in Munich, equities have already run their full course this year, but over the next 12 months, he's upbeat.

對於慕尼黑裕信銀行(UniCredit)的策略師克里斯蒂安·斯托克(Christian Stocker)來説,股市今年已經走到盡頭,但在接下來的12個月裏,他持樂觀態度。

"European equity markets have reached or even slightly surpassed our year-end index targets for this year. Although we expect no new impulses in the short term, the environment remains constructive," he says.

他表示:“歐洲股市已經達到甚至略高於我們今年的年終指數目標。儘管我們預計短期內不會出現新的推動力,但環境仍然具有建設性。”

"We expect potential of up to 10% for European equities until year-end 2022, albeit the path towards higher prices might not be smooth," he adds. This means the Euro STOXX 50 could reach levels around 4750 and the DAX climb to 18000 points.

他補充説:“我們預計,2022年年底之前,歐洲股市的漲幅最高可達10%,儘管通向更高價格的道路可能並不平坦。”這意味着歐洲STOXX50指數可能達到4750點左右的水平,DAX指數將攀升至18000點。

And Stocker is not alone.

斯托克並不孤單。

JP Morgan, too, kept this week its constructive stance on stocks, "looking to use any dips to join" .

摩根大通(JP Morgan)本週也堅持其對股市的建設性立場,“希望利用任何下跌機會加入”。

Morgan Stanley said on Friday: "We see more upside but more volatility in 2022 given macro cross currents; our new MSCI Europe Index target has 8% upside."

摩根士丹利週五表示:“考慮到宏觀的交叉趨勢,我們認為2022年會有更多上行空間,但波動性更大;我們新的摩根士丹利資本國際歐洲指數目標有8%的上行空間。”

(Danilo Masoni)

(Danilo Masoni)

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SECOND INNING (0923 GMT)

第二局(格林威治時間0923)

Jerome Powell's second inning as Federal Reserve chair has brought out the U.S. dollar bulls in force. Money markets have advanced their expectations of a full quarter percentage point rate hike by June next year from September 2022, only a few weeks earlier.

美國聯邦儲備委員會(美聯儲,FED)主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)的第二局讓看漲美元的人脱穎而出。貨幣市場提前了對明年6月加息整整0.25個百分點的預期,而就在幾周前的2022年9月。

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR are less than 10 bps away from 2021 highs while the U.S. dollar has barrelled past some important market levels against its rivals. What can spoil the party? An extended rise in bond yields can yank high-flying technology shares lower and weigh on the broader market, if last night's price action is any indicator.

10年期美國公債收益率US10YT=RR距離2021年高位不到10個基點,而美元兑競爭對手已突破一些重要的市場水平.什麼會破壞聚會?如果昨晚的價格走勢可以作為一個指標的話,債券收益率的持續上升可能會拖累飆升的科技股走低,並拖累大盤。

Tech was the biggest drag overnight and growth shares were the biggest laggard after outperforming value stocks last week.

科技股是隔夜最大的拖累因素,成長股在上週表現優於價值股後,是最大的落後者。

Watch this space.

注意這個空間。

(Saikat Chatterjee)

(Saikat Chatterjee)

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STOXX SLIDES TO 3-WEEK LOW (0855 GMT)

斯托克跌至3周低點(格林威治時間0855)

European stocks are set for their worst session in nearly two months as growing number of COVID-19 cases and rate hike concerns knocked sentiment ahead of flash readings on euro zone business activity.

歐洲股市將迎來近兩個月來最糟糕的交易日,因越來越多的新冠肺炎案件和對加息的擔憂在歐元區商業活動預覽值公佈之前打擊了市場人氣。

The STOXX 600 .STOXX equity benchmark falls 1.5% to a 3-week low, with all sectors trading lower and tech stocks down a whopping 2.4%. More than 86% of the STOXX constituents were trading in the red.

STOXX 600指數.STOXX股指下跌1.5%,至3周低點,所有板塊均走低,科技股跌幅高達2.4%。超過86%的STOXX成分股交易出現虧損。

The worst performer is AO World, whose shares plummeted almost 30% in early trading after the company warned of product shortages and cut its fiscal 2022 profit outlook.

表現最差的是AO World,在該公司警告產品短缺並下調2022財年利潤預期後,該公司股價在早盤交易中暴跌近30%。

(Joice Alves)

(喬伊斯·阿爾維斯)

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MIND THE (EUROPE-U.S.) GAP (0820 GMT)

注意(歐洲-美國)GAP(格林尼治標準時間0820)

When advance prints of Purchasing managers' Indexes (PMI) land, focus will be on businesses' input cost increases and whether they show signs of easing.

當採購經理人指數(PMI)預印時,焦點將是企業投入成本的增加,以及它們是否顯示出放緩的跡象。

The readings may also reinforce the gap between robust U.S. activity and COVID-plagued Europe, potentially further depressing the euro, which plumbed new 16-month lows on Monday

這些讀數還可能加強美國強勁的經濟活動與飽受COVID困擾的歐洲之間的差距,可能會進一步壓低歐元。週一,歐元跌至16個月新低。

EUR=EBS .

歐元=EBS。

Monday's euro area consumer confidence indicator offered a warning, falling back below pre-pandemic levels. October PMIs showed bloc's activity slowing the weakest in six months, while businesses' costs rose at the fastest pace in two decades. U.S. and British PMIs fared better but eye-popping price increases still featured.

週一的歐元區消費者信心指數提供了警告,回落到大流行前的水平以下。10月份採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示,歐盟經濟活動放緩至6個月來的最低水平,而企業成本以20年來最快的速度上升。美國和英國的採購經理人指數表現較好,但價格上漲仍然令人瞠目結舌。

A price slowdown would vindicate central bankers' who have until now rejected surging inflation as transitory. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (re-appointed for another four years) spoke on Monday the corrosive impact of inflation. The United States may also unveil an emergency oil release later in the day to dent energy prices .

物價放緩將證明央行官員的觀點是正確的,他們到目前為止一直拒絕將飆升的通脹視為暫時的。但美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)(再次被任命四年)週一談到了通脹的腐蝕性影響。美國還可能在當天晚些時候公佈緊急石油釋放計劃,以壓低能源價格。

Powell's reappointment sent markets into a frenzy of policy-tightening bets; three U.S. rate hikes are priced for 2022, starting June .

鮑威爾的連任讓市場陷入瘋狂的政策收緊押注;美國從6月開始的三次加息定價為2022年。

U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR are higher again this morning after 5-8 basis-point rises on Tuesday, while the dollar has moved into a fifth straight week of gains against a basket of currencies =USD .

美國公債收益率(殖利率)US10YT=RR在週二上漲5-8個基點後,今早再度走高,而美元兑一籃子貨幣=美元已進入連續第五週上漲.

When does this become a problem for stock markets?

這什麼時候會成為股市的一個問題?

Nasdaq-listed tech shares, vulnerable to higher rates, fell on Monday and are tipped for another lossmaking session NQc1 . Even a 2% rally in bank shares .SPXBK did not prevent a weaker S&P 500 close. Futures signal weakness there and for European shares ESC1 .

在納斯達克上市的科技股容易受到更高利率的影響,週一下跌,預計將迎來又一個虧損的交易日NQC1。即使銀行股.SPXBK上漲2%,也未能阻止標準普爾500指數收盤走軟。期貨發出了疲軟的信號,歐洲股市ESc1也是如此。

Finally, El Salvador's plans for a $1 billion bitcoin-backed bond doesn't seem to have benefited the coin very much; it's holding near one-month lows .

最後,薩爾瓦多發行10億美元比特幣支持債券的計劃似乎對比特幣沒有太大好處;比特幣目前持於一個月低點附近。

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Tuesday: Tuesday, Nov 23 -E.ON to invest $30 billion for green transition -BOE MPC member Jonathan Haskel speaks -ECB speakers: ECB board member Pentti Hakkarainen -U.S. Treasury auctions 7-year notes, 2-year floating rate notes -Philly Fed Non-manufacturing Business Outlook Survey -Emerging markets: Nigeria central bank meets -U.S. earnings: American Eagle, Medtronic, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, Abercrombie and Fitch, Hewlett Packard, Nordstrom, Gap, Dell

週二應為市場提供更多方向的關鍵事態發展:11月23日星期二-E.ON將投資300億美元進行綠色轉型-英國央行貨幣政策委員會成員喬納森·哈斯克爾發言-歐洲央行發言人:歐洲央行董事會成員彭蒂·哈卡萊寧-美國財政部拍賣7年期債券、2年期浮動利率債券-費城聯儲非製造業商業前景調查-新興市場:尼日利亞央行會議-美國收益:American Eagle、美敦力、百思買、Dollar Tree、Abercrombie和F

(Sujata Rao)

(Sujata Rao)

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