Online consumption in the US holiday season is expected to grow at its slowest pace in at least eight years because of product shortages, rising prices and uncertainty related to the COVID-19 epidemic.
Adobe IncAnalytics expects online sales to grow by an average of 10 per cent to $207 billion in November and December, compared with a record 33 per cent last year.
Retailers, who spent most of last year grappling with economic blockades, are now grappling with the consequences of a series of outbreaks, including global supply chain blockages, which could lead to commodity shortages during the holiday season.
Vivek Pandya, chief analyst at Adobe Inc Digital Insights, said on Wednesday that because of the lack of clarity about which items might be out of stock and when, it was difficult to determine whether product shortages would prompt consumers to shop more online or in brick-and-mortar stores.
Expected commodity shortages and the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 cases are also part of the reason for the expansion of Adobe Inc's consumption forecast, which ranges from 5 per cent to 15 per cent, Pandya added.
Consumption growth in 2021 is expected to be driven in part by higher product prices, which will be the smallest increase since Adobe Inc began tracking consumption data for the holiday season in 2014.
Adobe Inc said that due to soaring commodity and transportation costs, companies have raised product prices and expect the fees paid by consumers to increase by 9 per cent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday this year.
The company said that by the end of July, out-of-stock information on retailers' websites had soared 172 per cent from pre-epidemic levels, with clothing stocks consuming the fastest, followed by sporting goods, baby products and electronic products.
In response to potential inventory shortages, retailers have chosen to offer fewer discounts this year and hope to extend holiday season sales by encouraging shoppers to start shopping early.