The Prospect of US CPI in September: the Energy crisis strikes and inflation is hard to go away

Source: Wall Street

There is still strong upward momentum in energy, food and durable goods, while the recovery of the supply chain has been disappointing. This makes inflation "easier to go up than down" and has the possibility of hitting new highs.

The US will release September inflation data on Wednesday night. Market consensus: us CPI grew 0.3% month-on-month in September, 5.3% year-on-year, the same as the previous period; core CPI grew 0.2% month-on-month, 4.1% year-on-year growth, slightly higher.

Driven by contradictions in energy, transportation, wages and supply chain, 9Monthly CPIA month-on-month rebound is a high probability event and may even give the market a small "surprise".

CPIThe driving force of price rise rebounded

1The energy crisis has led to a significant rise in oil and natural gas.With the worsening global natural gas shortage, natural gas prices almost entered a straight-line upward phase in late September. Natural gas is one of the main sources of power generation in developed countries, accounting for nearly 28% of the basic energy in the United States and even higher in Europe.

The shortage of natural gas and the sharp rise in prices have not only led to power shortages and high electricity prices, but also brought simultaneous increases in energy products, including oil and coal, thus promoting the "high fever" of inflation to continue to ferment.

In the main section of CPI, although the weight of energy sub-item is not high, but because its fluctuation range is relatively obvious, it often drives the trend of CPI growth. The trend of the energy sector is highly related to the price trend of crude oil and natural gas. NYMEX crude oil fell 7.35 per cent in August, while natural gas rose 12 per cent, narrowing the month-on-month increase in the energy sector from 1.7 per cent to 0.8 per cent.而9Monthly crude oil price rebounded significantly by 9.66%Natural gas rose sharply by 35.4%.Or drive the month-on-month increase of 2% in the energy segmentAbove.

2, USAThe price of used cars hit a new high.According to Manheim data, wholesale prices of used cars rose 5.3% month-on-month to 204.8 after a quarterly adjustment in September, reaching a record high after two months of decline, up 27.1% from a year earlier (18.3%).对CPIAlthough the contribution is obviously lower than that in the first half of the year, it should be equivalent to7The level of the month.

3The hourly wage increase hit the second highest this year.Non-farm payrolls data show9The increase in monthly hourly wage accelerated again, reaching the second highest level of the year, reaching 0.62%.。Strong increases in wages, especially for low-paid workers, tend to shift more strongly towards inflation. And become an important factor in supporting the persistence of inflation.

4、 PMIPrices in the climate index rebounded itemized.9The United States of AmericaISM的Manufacturing and service industriesPMIThe price item in both bounced back about2One point. At the same time, the supplier delivery index increased by about4Point reached73.4Which shows that the marginal pressure of supply chain bottleneck increases.This is particularly evident in the prices of new cars and home appliances.

In addition, hotel accommodation and air ticket prices affected by the outbreak in August may have been repaired since mid-September, and the annual update of the health insurance section in the CPI will also push up the price of medical services, thereby driving up the overall core CPI.

Combined with the above, Wall Street forecasts show that:According toPMIPrice itemized model, 9Monthly CPISimilar to market expectations, it rebounded 0.1% month-on-month.The previous value was unchanged from the same period last year.However, from the energy, transport and other contradictions to simulate the more prominent sub-items, there is the possibility of exceeding expectations, year-on-year or the peak value of the year or even higher.

Us debt reflects rising concerns about inflation

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have continued to climb since October, and structural inflation expectations have risen rapidly again to near March highs, reflecting rising concerns about inflation and even stagflation against the backdrop of the energy crisis.

Judging from the trend of inflation during the year, it is also a foregone conclusion that it will continue to hover at a high level.There is still strong upward momentum in energy, food, durable goods, travel, health care and rent, while the recovery of the supply chain and related jobs remains disappointing. This makes inflation easier to rise and lower in the short term, and it is possible to continue to hit new highs.

Not only the market, but also the Fed's recent attitude towards the balance of employment and inflation has changed significantly. Fed Chairman Colin Powell also acknowledged that the impact of inflation is greater and longer-lasting than expected.

So in any case, with the impact of inflation widespread and persistent, the sudden cold non-farm payrolls data may not be able to hinder the progress of Taper. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting, which are expected to be released on Thursday, are likely to contain strong signals about the details of Taper, or at least options to be considered. The official announced Taper at the meeting in November and reduced the speed. There should be no doubt about launching Taper in December.

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