20万。
If U.S. non-farm payrolls are the same, investors will question the health of the economy and lower Treasury yields in the near term, according to the eight strategists surveyed. It could also lead to higher bets on the Fed delaying or slowing down the pace of downsizing. However, economists' median estimate for non-farm payrolls is 500000, more than double that figure.
While most investors think there is little doubt that the Fed will reduce its size, it will have to wait for the Fed to make clear the timing and speed of the reduction. Supply chain bottlenecks and the weight reduction expected to start in November have led to inflationary pressures that have led to a continuation of the third-quarter rally in US bond yields. That means the threshold for Treasuries to fall back after the employment data is released is high.
"if the figure is 300000 higher or lower than widely expected, it may cause a reaction to US Treasuries," said Societe Generale.Said Subadra Rajappa, head of US interest rate strategy at the bank.
"if the figure is as high as market expectations, such as 450000, it will be sufficient to maintain upward pressure on market interest rates," said Padhraic Garvey, global head of bond and interest rate strategy at ING Groep NV. "the lower figures need some interpretation and may still lead to higher interest rates. If you want market interest rates to fall sharply, you have to have super-low numbers, such as 200000 to 300000. "
Rajaappa predicts that a very strong employment data could revive reflation trading and cause 10-year Treasury yields to rise by up to 7 basis points.
If the data differ greatly from expectations, the impact is obvious, but if it is only slightly lower than expected, the impact depends on how investors interpret it. Details such as average hourly wage and unemployment rate will be used to judge the state of the labour market. The problem is further complicated by the failure to recruit suitable candidates for thousands of vacant positions.
However, not all investors or economists are obsessed with employment reports. Some say the inflation and supply chain challenges facing the US are more noteworthy. Bank of America CorporationBond analyst Ralph Axel said the main problem in the labor market is labor shortages rather than job shortages, so it will not change the economic narrative.
"it's hard to convince people that the employment situation has changed significantly and meaningfully this time," he said. "in the final analysis, no one really thinks we are in a recession."