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IMF总裁:2021年全球GDP增速将略低于此前预测的6%

President of IMF: global GDP growth in 2021 will be slightly lower than the previous forecast of 6%

新浪美股 ·  Oct 5, 2021 12:11

Georgiyeva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on Tuesday that the IMF expects global economic growth in 2021 to be slightly lower than the 6 per cent forecast in July, citing risks associated with debt, inflation and divergence in economic trends after the COVID-19 outbreak.

Georgiyeva said the global economy is rebounding, but the epidemic continues to limit recovery, the main obstacle is the "huge gap in vaccination", resulting in too many countries with too little access to vaccines.

Georgiyeva is in Boko, Italy.The IMF World Economic Outlook, updated next week, will predict that advanced economies will return to pre-epidemic output levels by 2022, but it will take "more years" for most emerging and developing countries and regions to recover, according to an online speech by the University of Nepal.

"We face a global recovery, but that recovery is still 'hampered' by the epidemic and its impact. We can't move forward well-it's like walking with pebbles in our shoes, "she said.

Georgiyeva said that the United States and China are still important engines of growth, and growth momentum in Italy and Europe is gaining momentum, but growth in other regions is deteriorating.

Inflationary pressures, a key risk factor, are expected to subside in most countries by 2022, but will continue to affect some emerging and developing economies, she said. She warned that rising inflation expectations could lead to a rapid rise in interest rates and tightening conditions in the financial sector.

While central banks can generally avoid austerity now, they should be prepared to act quickly if the recovery is faster than expected or the risk of rising inflation becomes a reality, she said. It is also important to monitor financial risks, including overvalued assets.

Global debt levels are currently about 100 per cent of GDP, which means that many developing countries have very limited ability to issue new debt under favourable conditions, says Mr Georgiyeva.

Asked about Europe's rising debt levels, Mr Georgiyeva said the growing economic momentum had laid a good foundation for Europe to avoid another sovereign debt crisis.

But she said countries must carefully plan how to shift to medium-term fiscal consolidation to eliminate the debt burden increased by the epidemic.

"these bills are about to expire," she said, adding that over time a good plan is needed to reduce the debt burden while avoiding "brutal" cuts in education or health care funding.

Georgiyeva also urged rich countries to increase the supply of COVID-19 vaccines to developing countries, lift trade restrictions and make up for the $20 billion in grant funding needed for COVID-19 's testing, tracking and treatment.

She said that if the huge gap in vaccination rates between developed economies and poorer countries could not be bridged, it could hinder the global recovery, resulting in cumulative global GDP losses of US $5.3 trillion over the next five years.

Countries should also accelerate efforts to combat climate change, ensure technological innovation and greater inclusiveness-all of which can boost economic growth, Georgiyeva said.

A shift to renewable energy, new power networks, energy efficiency and low-carbon travel could lead to global GDP growth of about 2% over a decade, creating 30 million new jobs, she said.

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