Original title: Labor and supply chain problems lower Britain's economic growth expectations, worsening the epidemic

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Due to labor shortage and supply chain delays and other factors, the recent shortage of fuel supply at gas stations and the slowdown in manufacturing growth in the UK have led to a significant decline in the business confidence index of British enterprises, further lowering the market's growth expectations for the British economy.

The British gasoline Retail Association is an organization of fuel retailers, of which more than half of the British gas stations are members. According to a survey of its members conducted by the association on September 29, about 37% of gas stations are "running out of fuel".

Gordon Ballmer, head of the association, said that fuel stocks at refineries and terminals remain at normal levels, but there is a shortage of heavy truck drivers, resulting in reduced fuel delivery.

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and Brexit and other factors, there is a serious shortage of British truck drivers. The British Road Transport Association estimates that there is a shortage of about 100000 truckers in the UK. The British Retail Association said that if truck drivers are not replenished in time, the prices of many goods will be affected.

Labour shortages and supply chain delays have also affected British manufacturing. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the UK hit a seven-month low of 57.1in September, down from 60.3 in August, according to a joint report released by Eason Warmai, a UK market research firm, and the Chartered Purchasing and supply Association on October 1st.

Duncan Brock, director of the Chartered Purchasing and supply Association, said UK manufacturing growth slowed for the fourth month in a row. Into the fourth quarter, labor shortages and supply chain delays will be more serious, with small businesses most affected.

Rob Dobson, an economist at Eason Huamai, said September's PMI data showed that the UK was at risk of falling into "stagflation" as growth in manufacturing output and new orders slowed sharply, while input costs and sales prices continued to soar.

According to a member survey released by the British Board of Directors Association on September 30, the corporate business confidence index showed a "cliff drop" in September. 75 per cent of respondents said they expected corporate costs in the next 12 months to be higher than in the same period last year, while only 5 per cent said they were "very optimistic" about the UK economy over the next 12 months.

John McLean, chairman of the City of London branch of the British Board of Directors Association, told Xinhua that the decline in business confidence was mainly affected by expected costs and wage increases. Kitty Osher, chief economist of the association, said that the business environment has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, and concerns about the uncertainty of the overall economic situation among small and medium-sized enterprises in the UK have increased.

The Bank of England cut its forecast for UK economic growth in the third quarter of this year in late September, partly reflecting current supply chain and labour problems. McLean said the government should provide incentives to push companies to upgrade their supply chains and improve the labor force.

Mr Osher says labour shortages occur not only in low-wage areas, but also in managers, professionals and skilled workers. The government should try to promote the upgrading of labor skills to meet the requirements of economic development. (Labor and supply chain problems drive down UK economic growth expectations)